Swain Ski & Snowboard Resort snow report

029 FXUS61 KBUF 210624 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 224 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Frost Advisory is in effect for Jefferson and Lewis counties tonight. Rainfall amounts have increased across Western NY Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below normal temperatures continue through the end of the week. 2) Widespread soaking rain Friday night into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Surface high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this morning will move east-southeastward through the end of the week. This cool and dry airmass will maintain dry weather across the forecast area through Friday. The center of the surface high will move over northern New York tonight. Mostly clear skies and calm winds will provide a favorable setup for radiational cooling across the North Country. Further west, a slight pressure gradient across western NY should prevent temperatures from falling into the mid-30s in that area. Low temperatures will range from the mid-30s across the North Country to the upper 30s and low 40s across western NY. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Jefferson and Lewis counties tonight. Following a cool day today, temperatures are expected to return to near-seasonal normals on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread soaking rain Friday night into Saturday night. An upper level ridge will amplify across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region Friday through Friday night. Deep southerly flow ahead of a surface low will advance northward across the Ohio Valley, with an associated warm front approaching western NY. Warm air advection and increasing moisture will result in showers moving into western NY Friday night. A shortwave trough will catch up with the surface low over the Ohio Valley, spreading widespread moderate to heavy rain across western NY on Saturday. While a strong area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is expected to maintain mostly dry conditions east of Lake Ontario, enhanced rainfall is possible in western NY where a low-level jet interacts with a very moist airmass. Though there has been uncertainty in the exact location of the enhanced rainfall. Instability will be limited in this environment, however a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The upper level ridge and surface high will move east Saturday night while large scale ascent and moisture will move into the eastern Great Lakes region. Rain showers will continue across western NY while spreading into north-central NY Saturday night. The current forecast includes rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.5" across western NY and 0.25-0.75" across the Eastern Lake Ontario region Saturday through Saturday night. This amount of rainfall has the potential to cause ponding and minor flooding of low lying areas. Rises on rivers and creeks is expected but widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Unfortunately, an upper level trough and lingering moisture will maintain shower chances Sunday through Sunday night, however there will be plenty of dry times. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Despite mid to high level clouds spanning across the entire area tonight, VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites. Cloud cover will gradually strip away from northwest to southeast as the surface cold front to the south pulls out into the Atlantic and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will then gradually shift east into the lower Great Lakes Thursday, maintaining VFR flight conditions. Outlook... Thursday Night through Friday...VFR. Saturday...MVFR/VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with widespread rain showers. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers in the morning, then improving to VFR. Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers. && .MARINE... Elevated northwest winds will continue on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight, with the strongest winds on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for this region through this morning. Winds will trend lighter on Lake Erie, however may be enough to produce choppy conditions. Winds will relax as high pressure builds into the region Thursday into Friday. A stronger pressure gradient develops late Friday and Saturday as a wave and warm front move into the Great Lakes. Easterly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots on the western end of Lake Ontario with small craft and beach hazards headlines likely during this time period. Winds will trend weaker on Lake Erie. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ003>006. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ007-008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043- 044. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...HSK/TMA