Echo Valley Provincial Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

013 FXUS63 KBIS 160624 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 124 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot conditions will continue across southern North Dakota through Thursday, with afternoon heat index values as high as 100, high temperatures around 95 to 100, and low temperatures around 65 to 70. - Temperatures are favored to remain above normal for most areas through the weekend, with cooler conditions arriving early next week. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across northern North Dakota into early Thursday morning. The threat for severe weather is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Isolated showers have developed as far south as Lake Sakakawea and the Highway 200 corridor. Have adjusted PoPs through the rest of the night to account for this. A more persistent light rain continues to fall over the northwest corner of the state. And thus far, all thunderstorms have remained north of the border. UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Showers continue to expand across the northwest tonight. Precipitation will mainly stay confined to the International border as the ridge lift precipitation into southern Canada. There could be some stronger storms on the Canadian side early in the morning hours. The CAMs have strong storms developing around 12Z in southern Manitoba staying north of the county warning area as they move southeast. Updated PoPs to catch the wave lifting across our area. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 There is an area of high based showers moving over northwestern North Dakota. The CAMS have pulled back on precip with only a small area along the International Border as the ridge builds over the Plains. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight, shifting slightly southeastward for Thursday. Hot temperatures will remain as a result. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower 70s will offer limited relief, while highs back in the 90s to near 100 degrees return for Thursday. A slight increase in humidity may also be found for Thursday, keeping apparent temperatures near 100 degrees. Although Thursday`s more impactful Heat Risk may be more central and eastern locations, will maintain the Heat Advisory as is for tonight through Thursday evening. Developing low in Wyoming will bring a boundary across the north tonight brining more chances for showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to remain modest through tonight, although instability looks more limited tonight. Thus the threat for severe weather remains low through tonight. There are some CAMs that bring a few thunderstorms across south central portions including the James River Valley this evening. These areas are starting to see a CU field develop, and have modest uncapped instability currently. Shear in these areas are also modest. The limiting factors are skinny CAPE profiles, limited lift, and overall dry soundings. Thus confidence was only high enough to add 10 percent chances for this afternoon and evening. Surface low moves across the region on Thursday through Thursday night, although limited chances for precipitation are expected. A breezy southerly wind may be found across eastern areas through the day, with winds becoming northerly as the low moves through from west to east. Of note, these southerly winds in the east then becoming northerly cold bring some areas of wild fire smoke to eastern North Dakota Thursday evening through at least Thursday night. Lows Thursday night will be cooler in the west and north, yet remain near 70 south central and southeast. Although the most dangerous heat is behind us, hot temperatures will continue into this weekend. On Friday and Saturday, high temperatures are forecasted to follow a north-south gradient: In the far northern part of North Dakota, high temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s, while in the south, they will reach the mid to upper 90s. The highest temperatures are expected to be concentrated in the southwest part of the state. Precipitation chances will be very low through the day Friday, with isolated chances into the overnight period across far west North Dakota. These isolated chances will remain from Saturday morning to afternoon, still remaining constrained to the far western part of the State. By the late evening and into Sunday, NBM guidance is showing higher chances (30-50%) of scattered thunderstorms moving from west to east across North Dakota with a surface-based shortwave providing required forcing. Despite sufficient shear, low surface based CAPE (<1000 J/kg) across the western two-thirds of ND will hinder severe storm development. If they form, the more intense of these thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the eastern third of the state, where CAPE values are more moderate. Temperatures will remain hot on Sunday. The cooler air expected from the aforementioned surface-based shortwave will lag behind it by about a day. In the north, highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s. Locations by and southwest of the Missouri River will see the highest temperatures in the upper 90s. Additionally, maximum wet- bulb global temperatures are moderate to high across the state on Sunday. From Monday into the end of the forecast period, strong ensemble support indicates we will finally see a cool-down, with high temperatures dipping down back to average (or possibly just below average). Precipitation for this time period remains uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Isolated to scattered showers are possible across northern North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning. Sub-VFR conditions are unlikely with this activity. Then later Thursday afternoon and evening, there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorms developing from northeast to south central North Dakota. The probability of this is too low to mention in the KBIS or KJMS TAFs at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Wind direction will vary over space and time, but will generally turn from southeasterly to northerly on Thursday. Wind speeds should mostly remain around 5-15 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051- 057>062. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Anglin/CSD AVIATION...Hollan