Mission Ridge Winter Park Snow Report

131 FXUS63 KBIS 090604 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 104 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers likely northwest and north central tonight, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Chance of showers southwest and south central. - Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Thursday along, south and west of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southwest and portions of northwest North Dakota. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday, a notable but brief warm up for Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected by the weekend. - More widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms return late in the weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Going forecast remains in good shape as showers, with a random strike of lighting now and then, are moving through northwest North Dakota. To the south, a secondary area of light showers continue to make their way through southwest North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Showers have begun to move into northwestern North Dakota at the time of this mid to late evening update. Precpitation so far has been fairly sporadic with the relatively dry near surface layer across the area, but they should become more consistent as the column saturates through the early overnight period. Have slightly increased precpitation coverage across the southwest and south central overnight in accordance to the latest model and upstream trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Scattered showers have begun to develop across portions of far northeast Montana at the time of this early evening update. These showers are expected to move into northwestern North Dakota and spread across central North Dakota as a moderately strong mid level jet drops down out of the southern Canadian Prairies later this evening and overnight through Wednesday morning. While overall instability is limited across the forecast area, an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northwest into north central North Dakota this evening. With this update, have increased coverage of showers in the south central than previously forecast. Otherwise, winds across much of western and north central North Dakota have begun to rapidly diminish this evening as the inciting low pressure center in southern Manitoba begins to exit to the northeast, and as the resulting pressure gradient across the northern Plains begins to relax. A few stronger gusts will remain possible in the far north central over the next hour or so, but the brief period and limited spatial coverage does not necessitate an extension to current wind headings. As such, we plan to allow the Wind Advisory to expire on time at 7 PM CDT / 6 PM MDT. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Windy conditions continue across much of western and central ND this afternoon, with strongest winds north and central. Short term guidance continues to indicate that most areas will see a gradual decrease in the strongest wind gusts after around 4 PM. The Turtle Mountains area looks to have the best potential for stronger gusts 4 PM. A low pressure system over southern Manitoba is responsible for our strong winds this afternoon. A shortwave, which is currently tracking across the northern Rockies will move into the northeast Montana this evening, then track across North Dakota tonight. This will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm to mainly northwest and north central ND. There is another weaker wave that may bring a slight chance for showers to southwest and south central ND. Better chances tonight will definitely be in the northern half of the state. Precipitation amounts will be light with most seeing under a tenth of an inch, with some areas seeing between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. Wednesday will be another seasonably cool day with highs mainly in the 70s. It will be a little Wednesday but not to the extent that a Wind Advisory will be needed, mainly westerly 15 to 25 mph with some gust to 30-35 mph south central. Another Canadian cyclone will bring a cold front through the area Thursday night. Ahead of the cold front, we are expected to see a brief but noticeable warm-up Thursday afternoon, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s over a good portion of western and central ND, with upper 80s forecast in west central and southwest ND. It may be breezy at times Thursday afternoon, but widespread windy conditions are not expected. It will become breezy on Friday, behind the cold front, and we could see an isolated shower as well. Temperature wise, Friday will be a transition day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in the northwest, well behind the front, to the mid 80s in the southern James River Valley, which may not see the front move through until the afternoon. The cold front will usher in cooler temperatures that are forecast to remain over the area through the weekend. Forecast highs are expected to be in mostly in the 60s through the weekend, with some upper 50 degree readings possible in the north. Overnight lows Saturday night may drop into the mid 30s over some areas, especially in the north. An approaching upper level low will bring more widespread precipitation chances to the area late in the weekend and into next week. A lot of uncertainty remains in the timing/placement of this system at this time it looks like we may see a good chance of widespread precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Scattered to numerous showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will move through northwest and north central North Dakota early this morning, with localized MVFR ceilings and possible MVFR visibility. A secondary area of showers will move through southwest and south central North Dakota, but ceilings with this area of precipitation are expected to remain VFR, with occasional minimal visibility reduction. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Near critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon over a portions of southwest and south central ND. Strong west to northwest winds around 30 with gusts to 55 mph across much of western and central North Dakota, will slowly diminish late this afternoon, then drop off pretty quickly this evening. Minimum afternoon humidity values will mainly be in the 30s over southwest and south central North Dakota, with possibly some upper 20s over portions of Bowman and Adams Counties. Therefore, near critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of southwest and south central North Dakota. To the north, higher relative humidity values are expected. Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening for southwest and west central ND. Near Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast across much of the remainder of western and central ND during this time. Humidity values will dip into the lower teens to lower 20s south and west of the Missouri River, while southwest winds increase to around 15 to 20 mph. Due to the low humidity and breezy conditions, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southwest and west central North Dakota. Areas north and east of the Missouri River will see similar winds with humidity values dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, except mid 40s around the Turtle Mountains. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...JJS FIRE WEATHER...TWH