Mission Ridge Winter Park Snow Report

703 FXUS63 KBIS 290558 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Excessive rainfall could cause localized flooding from south central North Dakota to the James River Valley through tonight. - Mostly dry with near normal temperatures from Tuesday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Stationary front will slowly evolve to a cold front through tonight. Along these fronts will be abundant showers and thunderstorms. There remains a limited window for a few stronger storms into the early overnight hours as uncapped mix layer cape up to 1000 J/KG meets modest shear around 30 knots. This could result in some small hail, generally under an inch in diameter. Wind threat looks fairly limited given lack of DCAPE with this system. Main threat still remains localized heavy rain given the slower moving nature of the boundary, higher pwats, and increased moisture transport. Prolonged thunderstorms across areas that have already received high amounts of rain will be the main areas of concern tonight. For now kept the Flood Watch for these more concerning areas as thunderstorms continue to develop. Behind this thunderstorm activity could be patchy to areas of fog later tonight into Tuesday morning. Overall the forecast remains on track with limited PoP adjustments made for current Radar trends. UPDATE Issued at 910 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Convection continues over portions of western ND this evening, from around Stanley to Killdeer. This is within an area of surface convergence just north of the surface low. This convection is pushing eastward into a more stable environment. If it holds together, it would reach the Minot area around 10 PM. There is some uncertainty as to whether it will maintain its strength, but we did bump up pops north central this evening with a PROB30 for the Minot TAF 03-05Z. Farther to the south, an E-W line of convection from just east of Bismarck to just north of Jamestown, is lifting to the north. This is near a warm front, currently analyzed from east of the surface low in southern Dunn County, east into Foster County. This convection formed just north of the previous convection this afternoon and is lifting away from the Flood Watch area. Water Vapor imagery shows an area of weak shortwave impulsed tracking through a southwest upper flow from western SD into southeast ND. There are some CAMS that show convection developing in the next 1-2 hours and lifting through the Flood Watch area. There are also some that show little if any convection in the Flood Watch. The max PWATs have shifted southeast of the Flood Advisory and moisture transport vectors are also becoming less favorable, especially for eastern Sioux and Emmons counties. We should know in the next 1-2 hours if we can cancel the Flood Watch. Will hold on to it for now though. Main change to the forecast was updating pops based on latest radar. UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 The main forecast update was to clean up pops this evening. Thunderstorms are currently exiting the far southeast Stutsman county. A few thunderstorms were also pushing into the far south central, from north central SD. A couple storms were also firing over western ND where we had some daytime sunshine. Don`t think these will last too long. The main area of concern is the far south central into the JRV, where we issued the Flood Watch. However, we are in a bit of a lull before the next wave provides the forcing for additional showers and thunderstorms over south central ND. The main limiting factor is the convective potential. Most of the instability is in the southwest and with the loss of heating, expect CIN to be on the increase. If we get more stratiform rain with embedded some embedded thunder, the potential for excessive rain will be less. We we can get the forcing to get another round of thunderstorms in this same general area, the potential for excessive rain increases, especially for those areas that had a round of rain this afternoon. Guidance suggest rain/thunderstorms will be on the increase over south central ND this evening. Will continue to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 544 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 We have issued a Flood Watch for a portion of south central ND, including the James River Valley. This narrow area received anywhere for 1-3 inches of rain this afternoon. A warm front remains situated over the area, and another round of thunderstorms, some with very heavy rain, is possible again this evening into early Tuesday morning. Flooding of urban and low lying areas will be possible tonight, especially for those that received an earlier round of heavy rain this afternoon. The Flood Watch does include Stutsman county, but far southern Stutsman is the area that received the heavy rain, in fact it`s still raining in far southeast Stutsman attim, so the far southern portion of the county is our main concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Currently a very deep trough in Nevada is causing southwest flow over the Northern Plains. East of the Mississippi River is a ridge pattern. At the surface a low pressure system is working into the western Dakotas, with widespread rain to its east along a stationary front. This front is located just south of Interstate 94 from west to east. Along the frontal zone, several inches of rain has fallen between the Missouri River and Ashley, ND. For this reason a Flood Advisory has been issued until 3pm. Western North Dakota is now in the dry slot of the low. This evening model guidance suggests a redevelopment of showers and maybe a thunderstorm in the south central and east. Models have very little MUCAPE, less than 400 J/kg, this evening and overnight. The rain shower development will likely be along that stationary front as it slowly slides north in the surface cyclonic flow. On the backside of the low, fog may be possible across the forecast area until the late morning. The rest of this week the pattern will change to zonal flow over the Northern Plains, allowing all this rain that just fell to dry out. No rain is then in the forecast until this weekend when an Alberta Clipper slides into the state Friday night. Temperatures through the week will stay near normal in the 60s to lower 70s as the zonal flow keeps things steady. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Showers and thunderstorms followed by patchy to areas of fog could bring MVFR to IFR, and perhaps some LIFR, conditions tonight into Tuesday morning. Most sites have some precip or BR mention to account for this unsettled weather through tonight. Conditions then look to improve to VFR later Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions should then remain through the remainder of the forecast period. Light and variable winds tonight will become a breezy westerly wind on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NDZ037-046>048-050- 062. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Anglin