Fox Hill Ski Area Snow Report

720 FXUS63 KGRB 240643 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today, then shower/storm chances (40-80%) at times Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Low risk of severe weather, mainly Tuesday evening/night. - Comfortable today with highs near normal, then temps climb slightly above normal with increasing humidity mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today into Tonight...Light winds, clear skies have produced ideal radiational cooling conditions across the region early this morning, with temps dropping into the 30s across the typical cold spots across northern WI. A little patchy ground fog will once again be possible early this morning and overnight into early Tuesday, mainly across central and northern WI. Any fog would burn off shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, dry and quiet conditions are expected today into tonight, with high clouds increasing through the day. It will be less windy, with northwest winds generally under 12 mph, with some higher gusts this morning in/near Door Co. Shower/Storm Chances Tuesday into Wednesday...Chances for showers and storms will increase on Tuesday as a shortwave and cold front approach from the west. The HRRR is the most aggressive with the first batch of showers and isolated storms, bringing it all the way through the area Tuesday morning. Other CAMs hint at some activity, but thinking the dry air will eat away at its eastward advancement, so have only brought 20-30% chances in the parts of central and north-central WI. Behind the initial area, instability will build within the warm sector, with SBCAPEs climbing to at least 500-1000 J/kg, highest in north-central WI, with some 2000 J/kg possible towards northwest WI. 0-6 km bulk shear should be in the 25-30 kt range, allowing for some organized storm activity. Could have some isolated activity in the warm sector during the day, but the main show looks to develop across northwest WI during the afternoon/evening as the shortwave dives into northern MN and the front arrives. Machine Learning guidance has honed in on this area for the greatest severe weather threat, which could extend into parts of north central WI Tuesday evening (SPC brings the Marginal Risk to the CWA border), with gusty winds and hail the main threats. Storms will likely become more elevated through the night, with the area of showers and embedded shores spreading across the area Tuesday evening/night, with 50-80% chances across the area. While widespread heavy rain is unlikely with probabilities of over 0.5" at 50% or less (highest over northern WI), some locally heavy rain will be possible in any storms, and especially if any training storms occur. Other areas of moderate rain are also expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so many spots will at least put a dent into the drought conditions. Models remain in fair agreement with faster FROPA on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in shower/storm chances (20-70%, highest north/east), especially during peak heating. Lingering instability could lead to a strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Thursday into the Weekend...northwest, cyclonic flow across the western Great Lakes could produce a few showers on Thursday, especially in the afternoon during peak heating and steepest low- level lapse rates. But with the colder air aloft and better forcing to our north/east, along with dry air, will limit the shower potential with chances under 20% (highest near Door Co.). Dry conditions are expected on Friday as weak high pressure slides across the region. Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%) move back into the area from the southwest this weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. While the higher threat for severe weather and flooding will be to our south/west, any northward shift would bring the threat into our area, at least for a day or two. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions this morning, temps the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s should be Tuesday ahead of the front. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers/storms and some wind. Lows could drop back into the upper 30s and 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No significant changes to the previous forecast. Other than patchy ground fog for central and north-central WI late tonight, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected into Monday morning. Less fair weather clouds are expected on Monday, but will likely see coverage in the few-sct range, highest over eastern WI. Cloud bases will likely remain above 5-6 kft. With high pressure centered across the region, winds on Monday will be light, topping out at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. Light winds expected to continue on Monday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest winds of 15-22 kts continue north of Sturgeon Bay early this morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts near Death`s Door. The strongest of the winds will continue through sunrise, so will just let the Small Craft Exercise Caution run its course through 12z. Winds will slowly ease after sunrise. A period of persistent south/southwest winds is forecast on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible, with waves building to at least 2 to 4 ft with some 5 foot waves possible. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. A moderate swim risk is also expected on Lake Michigan beaches. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Bersch