Loch Lomond Ski Area Snow Report

732 FXUS63 KGRB 070333 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1033 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous conditions to small craft will continue on Lake Michigan through 7 AM Wednesday. - Gusty west winds to 30 to 35 mph and low afternoon relative humidity will elevate fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. - Patchy frost will be possible over far northern Wisconsin early Friday morning with low temperatures in the mid 30s. - Unseasonably warm and windy conditions arrive Saturday and Sunday with inland high temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 The current surface analysis shows a prefrontal trough crossing northern Wisconsin ahead of a cold front positioned over northern Minnesota. Upper-air analysis displays broad mid-level troughing over Ontario and Quebec, while an expansive surface high pressure ridge builds across the Northern Plains. The cold front will pass through dry tonight, shifting surface winds to the west by Wednesday morning. Gusty Winds And Fire Weather Wednesday: Deep boundary layer mixing up to 750-700mb behind the cold front will drive minimum relative humidity values down to 27 to 35 percent Wednesday afternoon across Marinette, Florence, and Forest counties, where there is a moderate fire danger. Modestly tight surface pressure gradients will combine with momentum transfer aloft to yield gusty west winds in these areas. NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 60 to 80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph across the northwoods. Relative humidity values will rapidly recover above 85 percent Wednesday evening as surface winds subside beneath building high pressure. Thursday Night Patchy Frost Potential: Canadian surface high pressure building over the western Great Lakes Thursday night will create favorable radiational cooling conditions beneath decoupling winds and clear skies. Overnight minimum temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin, including Rhinelander, Land O Lakes, and Crandon. NBM temperature percentiles show a 30 to 50 percent probability of low temperatures falling to 37 degrees or colder in sandy soil areas, supporting patchy frost formation late Thursday night. Rapid diurnal warming after sunrise Friday will quickly burn off any patchy frost with daytime highs recovering into the upper 60s. Weekend Unseasonable Warmth And Strong Winds: Strong warm advection and return southerly flow will surge across Wisconsin Friday night into the weekend as high pressure shifts to the East Coast. Inland maximum temperatures Saturday and Sunday will likely reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, approaching daily record highs at some locations. Tightening regional pressure gradients will produce strong southerly wind gusts on Saturday, with NBM guidance showing a 30 to 50% probability of gusts exceeding 35 mph area- wide. High confidence exists in these unseasonably warm temperatures as NBM 25th to 75th percentile spreads remain narrow at 2 to 4 degrees F across most of the area. An advancing upper- level trough and associated surface cold front will cross Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday, bringing returning rain shower chances. Limited moisture transport ahead of the boundary will restrict precipitation coverage, keeping 24-hour rainfall probabilities between 30 and 50 percent across north-central and northeast Wisconsin. NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 15-30 percent probability of 24-hour rainfall exceeding 0.50 inches, with expected liquid accumulations remaining around 0.25 inches. Post-frontal cold advection Monday night into Tuesday will drop daytime highs back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the west-northwest after midnight. Surface west winds are expected to become gusty on Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon. The highest gusts will be found across far northern WI (KRHI) where peak gusts will likely range from 25-30 kts. Gusts 20 to 25 kts are likely further south. These gusty winds will subside by 23-24Z Wed. Otherwise, mid and high clouds above 10 kft will be present at times through the taf period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Gusty south winds are subsiding, but waves on Lake Michigan will likely take until early Wednesday morning before falling below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Have ended the Small Craft Advisory on the Bay but waves of 4 ft off Kewaunee to 10 ft on the northern Lake Michigan buoy will take longer to diminish. Gusty west winds to 25 kts are expected to develop on Wednesday afternoon, which may require a Small Craft Advisory. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........MPC