Loch Lomond Ski Area Snow Report

229 FXUS63 KGRB 160620 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 120 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain chances (40 to 60%) return tonight into Thursday morning, though rainfall totals will remain light at under one tenth of an inch. - Confidence is increasing for a significant heavy rainfall event Friday afternoon into Saturday, focused across central and east-central Wisconsin. - Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms towards early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered across the northern Plains early this morning, steadily shifting eastward into the western Great Lakes. Latest radar imagery depicts an active thunderstorm belt along a cold front extending from eastern Kansas into southern Lower Michigan, with cirrus streaming northward across central and northeast Wisconsin. Satellite imagery shows clearing skies across north- central Wisconsin where patchy ground fog has developed. Further west, shortwave energy moving east across southern Canada will be the primary upper- level driver influencing weather across the Great Lakes over the next 24 to 36 hours. Light rain tonight into Thursday morning: In the near term, patchy ground fog early this morning over north-central Wisconsin will lower visibilities to one- quarter to one-half mile before lifting after 8 AM. High pressure sliding quickly across the region today will keep conditions dry, accompanied by scattered shallow fair- weather cumulus. Cloud cover will increase this evening as weak overrunning moisture moves in ahead of a shortwave moving east across southern Canada. Rain chances tonight generally range from 40 to 60 percent, but precipitation will be light with 90th percentile amounts only up to 0.10 inches. Spotty light showers or drizzle will linger into Thursday morning before clearing develops Thursday afternoon. Seasonable high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s are expected today and Thursday. Heavy rainfall potential Friday through Saturday: Heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday represents the most significant weather hazard during the 7-day forecast period, with increasing potential for localized flooding across central and east-central Wisconsin. Shortwave energy advancing across the Rockies will trigger a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet directed into central Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Friday night. Strong dynamic forcing will overspread the region, characterized by upper-level divergence in the right rear quadrant of an upper jet streak, robust mid-level frontogenesis, and strong moisture convergence above the returning warm front. Precipitable water values are forecast to climb to around 1.70 inches, which sits near the 96th percentile for mid- September. Warm cloud depths in excess of 12,000 feet will favor efficient rainfall processes. Model guidance has trended slightly southward over the past 24 hours, concentrating the heaviest precipitation swath over central and east-central Wisconsin. Probability of 1 inch or more of rain has increased to 60 to 75 percent in these areas, while the probability of 2 inches or more has increased to 20 to 45 percent. Because these same locations received heavy rainfall earlier in the week, antecedent soil moisture remains high, elevating the threat of localized urban and small stream flooding. Severe weather risk remains low due to meager instability, with most unstable capes generally under 500 J/kg. Additional rain chances early next week: Following the departure of the Friday night and Saturday system, a brief break in precipitation is expected Saturday night into Sunday as weak surface ridging passes over the Great Lakes. However, the progressive mid-level flow will keep the region in an unsettled regime heading into early next week. Another upper shortwave trough and associated surface system will approach from the Great Plains toward Sunday night and Monday, bringing additional chances for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across much of the area through Wednesday evening. The exception will be late tonight from 07z-13z across the north where patchy fog may bring some MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYs. The next chance of rain will be on Wednesday night. Most of the rain should hold off until after 06z Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Eckberg