Minnedosa Ski Valley Snow Report

511 FXUS63 KBIS 080604 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 104 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions expected through Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm, possibly strong to severe, possible across the southeast late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. - Very low humidity values combined with some increased northerly winds could bring an hour or two of near critical fire weather conditions across far southwestern North Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening. - Low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for precipitation enter the forecast late Sunday and remain through much of the upcoming work week. - Warmer Saturday, then near to a bit below average going into the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Quiet weather remains in place, with no changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 No changes for the late evening update. UPDATE Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Clear but hazy/smoky skies are expected this evening across western and central North Dakota. No updates planned attim. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Surface high under northwest flow aloft will continue to push across the state through tonight. Expect dry conditions as a result with lows in the 50s tonight. Mainly clear skies are also expected as the afternoon CU field in the north and east dissipates. HRRR Smoke showing some near surface smoke possible in the southwest tonight, with smoke aloft also moving in. It may take some mixing to get smoke to the surface, thus limited surface smoke through the evening hours tonight. Did adjust sky cover to account for some smoke aloft through the night. Saturday, a broad surface low lifts a weak warm front. This will bring warmer temperatures in the 80s north to the 90s south. Generally dry conditions will allow for some low afternoon humidity values in the teens and 20s southwest, with above 30 percent elsewhere. With the surface low forecast to track across southern ND, generally light winds are expected except late afternoon and evening when northerly winds on the back side of this low could increase somewhat. This may bring a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest. Confidence isn`t high enough for any fire products at this time. Meanwhile, along this warm front in the southeast will be some increased instability and shear, although the surface will be generally capped. There still could be some elevated thunderstorms late day through the evening. SPC has now clipped parts of southeastern ND with a Marginal Risk to account for this potential. Hail and strong winds will be the main threats with any isolated storm that develops. Some weak showers could also develop along a stalled front in the north during the afternoon Saturday, although the threat for severe weather in these areas is low. Surface high then moves a weak cold front through Saturday night. This should diminish the thunderstorm threat in the southeast, although a lingering low level jet will provide for some slight PoPs. Otherwise look for lows in the 50s along with a steady easterly wind. Smoke aloft could linger Saturday through Saturday night. Better mixing in the southwest could bring this smoke to the surface Saturday. Cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s, and mainly dry conditions will then be found for Sunday, along with a steady easterly wind. These cooler temperatures should bring improved RH values, limiting the fire weather concerns. A stalled surface front could eventually bring some showers and thunderstorms, mainly later Sunday through Sunday night. SPC has clipped the far south with a Marginal Risk. Most of the instability holds off until the evening and Sunday night hours, perhaps indicating some stronger storms at night are possible. Low temperatures look to maintain in the 50s Sunday night. Clusters are in fair agreement for zonal flow next week as the western ridge flattens. Some clusters push a trough extending from a Hudson Bay low into the area as well. Overall this pattern looks to support near to below average temperatures along with near daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Depending on strength of passing waves in this zonal flow will greatly depend on rain and rain amount chances. CSU-MLP also showing at least some isolated severe chances in the southern half of ND through next week although these will also greatly depend on these mentioned waves. NBM showing low to medium chances for a wetting rain each day, and are somewhat increased later next week especially in the west. Cooler temperatures could provide for some lower RH values, which may also help to limit the fire weather concerns through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Wildfire smoke may occasionally reduce visibility to MVFR levels over southwest North Dakota today into this evening. Over parts of far south central North Dakota into the James River Valley, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...JJS