Mission Ridge Winter Park Snow Report

376 FXUS63 KBIS 120610 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1004 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog may develop tonight and linger into Thursday morning over western North Dakota. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend into early in the work week. - Seasonal temperatures to close out the work week, then a gradual warming trend for the weekend into early in the upcoming work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Made some minor adjustments to sky cover based on latest satellite imagery. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. Did re-issue the SPS for fog in the northwest/north central. This area of fog has moved little through the evening. The cloud deck has expanded west, but think there is enough of a breeze to keep dense fog from forming so far. Guidance still suggests the lower vsbys develop in the west. We`ll see. As of 10 PM there was only 1 observation site (Tioga) down to a quarter mile and many have improved. There is enough evidence though on webcams to extend the SPS for areas of fog, mainly along the Highway 2 corridor. UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Areas of fog, some dense, continues over portions of northwest and north central ND early this evening. This is mainly along and around 20 miles either side of the the Highway 2 corridor from Minot to Tioga. Will monitor for possibly Dense Fog Advisory, but for now we issued a SPS for this small area. Guidance suggests that fog will expand westward towards the Montana border, and also develop south into southwest ND, while current areas of fog around the Minot area may improve. Will continue to monitor. Other than expanding the areas of fog in the northwest and north central early this evening, and the SPS, no other changes were made attim. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Current surface analysis places high over Manitoba stretching southward into the Dakotas, while low remains over the lower Midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies, with north-northwest flow over the northern plains. Over our area, low clouds cover northwest into much of central North Dakota, with some persistant fog continuing to affect parts of north central/northwest North Dakota generally around the Minot area, though this has been improving over the past hour or two. For tonight, cloud cover will linger over much of the area, but to the west guidance continues to indicate fog development later this evening, remaining through the overnight hours. On Thursday, with the exception of the fog lingering into the morning over the west, a quiet day is on tap with the ridge to the west keeping us in northwesterly flow. Ridge pushes to the east as we get into the weekend and early next week which will keep dry weather in place, but will result in a gradual warming trend. By the start of the next work week, high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above average will be possible. As we close in on mid-week, a Pacific trough will push easterly, bringing rain chances to the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 946 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Widespread MVFR ceilings over central and eastern ND. The ceilings are expected to remain over central ND overnight and through Thursday morning. Ceilings should improve Thursday afternoon, but there is definitely a signal, especially from the RAP and HRRR, that clouds may linger through most of the day over central and western ND. The GFS shows clouds dissipating mid to late morning, while the RRFs shows clouds lingering through midday before beginning to erode. Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph will shift east to southeast through the period, with southeast winds 15 to 25 mph over western ND by Thursday afternoon. RAP and HRRR Guidance still suggests areas of fog developing over western ND later tonight. Will continue with this trend but confidence in widespread fog over all of western ND is now lower. Maybe more like the northwest and west central and into the south central. Pretty high T/Td spread remain over the far southwest. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...TWH