Echo Valley Provincial Park Cross Country Ski Trails Snow Report

471 FXUS63 KBIS 050606 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 106 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through the holiday weekend. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Saturday through Sunday. - Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, followed by a gradual cooling trend through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has been impacting far northwest North Dakota since around 11 PM CDT. These storms are likely sampling CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 40-50 kts. Despite this convection being located at the nose of a strong low level jet, CAMs were very poor in properly simulating it. To the southeast, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are more prominent east of Highway 83, which had been anticipated. Most of this activity has been tame compared to the northwest as it has existed in a lower CAPE/shear environment, but MUCAPE is forecast to increase over the next few hours in response to strengthening low level moisture transport. UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Storms continue to expand across the southeast into the James River Valley and there are few storms in the northwest. The forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 There is an areas of thunderstorms going up the southwest and will likely stay sub severe as there is a lot of CIN that will prevent storms from strengthening. However, there is decent shear and CAPE that could support a stronger storm or two if they can over come the CIN. Added PoPs to match the current storms across the southwest. There is another wave that is moving across the north central South Dakota that could clip the southern James River Valley in North Dakota later tonight. The current forecast remains on track as of this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Critical fire weather conditions continue to be possible across the southwest through this evening. RH values have been slow to lower, although there appears to be a dry line now pushing through these far southwest areas. Thus will continue current Red Flag Warning as breezy southeast winds are still expected with these lowering RH values. Developing surface low in western MT will develop a warm front across northern and eastern ND tonight. Some weak showers are already forming along this boundary, with shower and thunderstorm activity forecast to increase somewhat this evening through tonight. The threat for severe weather remains low, although there remains high amounts of MUCAPE tonight. Shear is only modest, although hodographs would indicate some rotating cells are possible. Thus some near severe hail is possible. DCAPE and 0 to 3 km shear are also increased tonight, indicating some near severe winds are possible. The main threat tonight could be heavy rain, as PWAT values near 1.5 inches are forecast. Otherwise mild lows in the 60s are expected today with a steady southeast wind. Increased dewpoints will be found through the night bringing high RH recoveries. This could lead to some low clouds or perhaps fog tonight, although confidence was not high enough to place in fog in the forecast given the steady winds tonight. Surface low stalls across the area for Sunday as well as the mentioned warm front. A morning upper level wave could push overnight convection eastward through the morning. The stalled warm front will bring another hot day with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. This combined with continued high dewpoints will bring ample instability for Saturday. Shear remains modest for Saturday, although increases Saturday evening through the night. The result could be isolated severe thunderstorms Saturday through Saturday night. SPC has broaden the Marginal risk as a result for Saturday. It may still be somewhat conditional risk, as mid level ridging and warming overhead could cap the atmosphere somewhat. However, with high CAPE and modest shear, any storms that do develop could be come severe. High pwats of 1 to near 2 inches will also bring a heavy rain threat. Surface low shifts slightly eastward and stalls Sunday and Monday, while influence from a broad upper trough moves in the state. The result will be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms for the rest of Labor Day Weekend. SPC has maintained a broad Marginal Risk for Sunday given high instability and at least modest shear. Isolated severe thunderstorms could continue into Labor Day, although instability is not as high. High pwats of 1 to 2 inches will also remain Sunday and Monday, bringing a localized heavy rain threat each day. With the stalled warm front across the state, temperatures will remain mild, especially in the south. From Tuesday to Wednesday, a stacked upper level low is projected over the southern Canadian prairie provinces on Tuesday before it quickly jets toward the northern Great Lakes and New England. This favors drier, slightly cooler, and windier conditions for western and central North Dakota Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday especially could see at least advisory level west winds. This combined with some lowering of RH could bring the next near critical to critical fire weather day especially in the west. Flow aloft may then transition to quasi- zonal by the end of next week, which could moderate temperatures to near normal values and return periodic lower chances for rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the forecast period. Other than at KJMS late tonight, confidence in if and/or when a shower or storm could move over a terminal is very low. The strongest storms could produce heavy rain reducing visibility to IFR levels, erratic wind gusts, and small hail. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the forecast period, although there is a low chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing in northern parts of the state early Saturday morning. Winds will primarily be southeasterly to easterly around 10-15 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Hollan