Mont Avalanche Snow Report

389 FXUS61 KBTV 260659 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 259 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 258 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 258 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Quiet weather today followed by showers and thunderstorms possible both Thursday and Friday. 2. Following a drier weekend, shower chances return into early next week, with slightly above normal temperature. && .DISCUSSION... As of 258 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure cresting overhead this morning will provide the region with a seasonable and dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of next approaching system. A surface low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes area northeastward into Ontario and then Quebec. Series of frontal passages on Thursday into Thursday night will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to our area. SPC has placed our region in Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Moderate instability is expected ahead of a cold frontal passage as some higher dewpoints advect into our area on south southwesterly flow. Some modest shear may help some storms to become better organized with some strong winds and small hail possible. Areas further south of our forecast area will have better chances for severe storms. Additional showers are expected Friday as upper level trough trails behind departing surface fronts and crosses our area. Severe weather is not expected, though embedded thunderstorms will be possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a mainly dry weekend, there still looks to be some signs of subtle cyclonic flow as an upper low lifts north and east, which may spur some isolated shower activity in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Sunday. Some of which will bring some increase cloud cover and an isolated shower to the St. Lawrence Valley and areas near the International Border. Our flow pattern will gradually become more zonal towards late Sunday into Monday, favoring more hit or miss showers in the aforementioned areas. Temperatures will begin to increase above seasonable norms by 3-5 degrees, Sunday into Monday as a thermal ridge moves through the region. Highs Sunday into early next week will be in the upper 70s for the higher terrain, and low 80s in the wider valleys, which is supported by 850mb temperatures of 16-19C. Humidity will also be on the incline, peaking Monday in the low to mid 60s. The increase in humidity will be a result of a trough swinging through the area to start next week. Models are beginning to pick up on a weak shortwave that will ride through the thermal ridge Monday into Tuesday. Shower chances will increase by early Monday through Tuesday across the region. While ingredients will be marginal Monday, some thunder chances will be possible Monday afternoon driven by a weak frontal boundary passage. Thunder chances will also be possible Tuesday, but will be conditional on the frontal passage on Monday. A slower front Monday would help spur thunder chances, and perhaps some stronger storms Tuesday as storm chances would be associated with better instability and shear profiles. A faster front Monday would lower thunder chances Tuesday. While the pattern is relatively unsettled early next week, precipitation probabilities are generally low, with only a 20-40% chance for 0.5" highlighted in the northern portions of our area Monday into Tuesday in the GFS ensembles and AI suite. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR is expected through sunrise this morning before all terminals trend towards VFR during the daylight hours. Observational trends have moved towards low stratus as the main flight reduction source. Lingering low level moisture at SLK/RUT are currently leading to bouncing IFR cigs around 500ft agl. SLK should see more prevailing IFR until sunrise with low stratus to 500-1000ft agl. Fog observed in the Otter Creek Valley near RUT will likely waffle in and out of the RUT terminal for the next couple hours, with at the least VCFG. Have used a TEMPO for RUT, and more prevailing IFR at SLK. Model guidance and observations become more tricky for MPV/EFK/MSS with satellite depicting some low to mid level scattered clouds. Fog is already observed at VSF, but it remains unclear whether fog will develop near EFK/MSS/MPV, or whether there will be just low stratus. Regardless, cigs at the least will bounce between scattered and broken 2000-3000ft agl, with EFK already SCT023. Have TEMPO groups for MVFR cigs at EFK/MPV. There is better model agreement that some fog in the St. Lawrence may drift over MSS near sunrise, and thus have also used a TEMPO group to depict this. Low stratus and any fog will scour out between 12-13Z, with all terminals trending towards VFR conditions. Fair weather cumulus around 5000ft agl and scattered upper level clouds above 10,000ft agl are anticipated during the daylight hours. Winds will be light and variable for all terminals with some slight south and southwest channeling at BTV/PBG and MSS, respectively. Winds will shift to the southeast towards the end of this TAF package tonight. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Danzig/Neiles AVIATION...Danzig