Mt. Pisgah Snow Report

455 FXUS61 KBTV 130725 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... No significant changes made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... 1. Several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected today into tonight, with a low probability (<15%) of a few stronger storms possible. 2. Changeable weather conditions every couple of days as fast progressive flow aloft prevails most of this upcoming week, but the probability of significant or hazardous weather impacts is <5%. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Crnt radar imagery shows a band of widespread light to moderate rain impacting most of our cwa this morning associated with deep moisture advection and channeled 700-500mb vorticity. This moisture and energy should shift east of VT by 15z this morning with some breaks in the overcast expected by early aftn. These breaks should allow temps to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s with dwpts in the 60s, creating sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1200 J/kg. However, sounding data does suggest a warm nose of 13-14C air near 800mb, which could act as a cap until better forcing and cooler air aloft arrives late in the day/this evening. Also, subsidence/dry air behind initial moisture surge this morning may limit areal coverage of any convection this aftn. SPC continues to place most of our cwa in a marginal risk for severe, but feel threat is very conditions with limited areal coverage and intensity of storms anticipated due to the combination of factors outlined above. However, if a convective updraft can grow tall enough, given the developing mid/upper lvl lvl wind fields, an isolated gusty thunderstorm would be possible. The threat for stronger storms dissipates after sunset, but additional showers are likely overnight associated with our sfc cold frnt and potent 700-500mb s/w energy dropping southward. The dynamics and ribbon of moisture wl produce a line of quick moving showers from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 03z-09z Monday. Moderate caa develops behind the boundary for Monday with lingering clouds, especially in favorable upslope regions thru early aftn, before drier air develops and skies become mostly sunny. Highs only in the upper 50s to upper 60s with brisk northwest winds. Building 1028mb high pres and associated deep dry layer wl result in mostly clear skies and light winds on Monday night, expect areas of fog with some patchy frost likely in the dacks/nek by Tues morning. Lows from the upper 20s to mid/upper 40s anticipated acrs the region. KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale synoptic pattern conts to indicate a fast/zonal flow acrs the northern CONUS for most of this upcoming week. This will provide our cwa with changeable weather conditions every couple of days but the probability of significant or widespread hazardous weather impacts is very low attm. Temps wl trend at or slightly below normal for most of this upcoming week with highest probability of showers late Weds into Thurs. Precip setup looks very similar to our crnt scenario with 700-500mb vorticity lobe angling acrs our cwa as sfc cold frnt is dropping southward. This wl support expanding areal coverage of showers and embedded heavier downpours late Weds into Thurs, especially with pw values near 1.5". Similar to this mornings activity, highest pops/qpf looks to be acrs central/southern areas, closer to the deeper moisture/weak instability, but this could change as the week progresses. Temps mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Aviation challenge this morning will be lowering cigs and vis in periods of light to locally moderate rainfall lifting from southwest to northeast across our taf sites. Currently MVFR cigs at SLK with rest of our sites experiencing VFR conditions. As rain continues to saturate the low levels expect cigs to trend toward MVFR at all sites in the next 1 to 3 hours with intervals of IFR likely at SLK/MPV and EFK by 09z. As inversion lowers with blocked flow, even a period of IFR cigs will be possible at BTV near sunrise. Visibilities generally around 6SM but between 3-5SM in the heavier shower elements through 12z this morning. Winds continue from the south/southwest at 4 to 8 knots, but localized gusts 15 to 20 knots at BTV. Flight conditions slowly improve to MVFR mountain sites to VFR valleys by 15z and mostly VFR by 18z today. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... A Lake Wind Advisory continues today for gusty south to southwest winds 15 to 30 knots with a few localized gusts up to 35 knots possible this morning across the open waters. Waves generally 1 to 3 feet, but locally 3 to 5 feet possible. Winds slowly decrease this afternoon to 15 to 20 knots before shifting to the northwest overnight. Another Lake Wind Advisory maybe needed for late tonight into Monday morning for breezy northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Taber AVIATION...Taber MARINE...Taber