Navarino Hills Snow Report

097 FXUS63 KGRB 010716 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 216 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions continue today with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices climbing into the lower to middle 90s across central into northeast WI. - Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms late tonight into Wednesday south of a Merrill to Wausaukee line. The main risk would be strong or damaging winds and hail up to one inch in diameter. - Above normal temperatures and the periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue Thursday into weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 The first day of meteorological fall will be a warm one with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. The heat index will climb into the lower to middle 90s across central into northeast WI. Attention then turns to late tonight when a warm front will lift northward towards the area. A 40 knot 850mb low level jet/850mb warm advection will trigger thunderstorm activity across Minnesota and western WI during the evening, then overspread the area after midnight. Mid-level lapse rates not all that impressive at 5.5 to 6 C/KM. However, low level winds at 850mb are expected to increase to about 40 knots towards 12z at Green Bay. Wind shear values of at least 30-40 knots and CAPE values of 500 to 1,500 J/KG would support the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts and potential for hail up to one inch in diameter. After the storms exit Wednesday morning, a lot of uncertainty if storms would redevelop across east-central WI during the afternoon. Only have a 20-30% chance into the evening. For Thursday into the weekend, above normal temperatures are going to continue with the periodic chances of thunderstorms. Hopefully some of these storms will move across our area to help alleviate the on-going drought. Placement of the axis of heavier rain will be difficult to pinpoint this far out based on the upper air pattern. Otherwise, late guidance is suggesting cooler temperatures early next week, a hint of the changing of the seasons. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Abundant low level moisture and clearing skies has led to fog formation across north-central Wisconsin late this evening, leading to VLIFR conditions. These conditions should eventually make their way south across all of the TAF sites per the MOS guidance. Any fog will eventually burn off between 12-14Z Tuesday morning. Conditions should then be VFR for the rest of the TAF period later on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A thunderstorm complex could impact the area late Tuesday night, after the current TAF period. Light and variable winds are expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots are then expected the rest of Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Drier air is still expected to move into northern WI today. Deep mixing, winds gusting to around 25 mph and warm temps may lead to elevated fire weather conditions in north-central WI, especially Vilas County this afternoon where RHs should dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s during peak heating. Per coordination call yesterday with surrounding offices and the DNR, no SPS will be issued as just enough enough moisture from previous rains should keep any fire danger subdued, especially with the latest fire danger in the low category. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005- 010>013-018-019-021. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Kurimski FIRE WEATHER...Bersch/Eckberg