Navarino Hills Snow Report

620 FXUS63 KGRB 100552 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Highs in the 80s through Wednesday, then slightly cooler late this week. - Dry today, then potential for additional rounds of showers and storms late tonight through middle of the week. At this time, risk of severe storms is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Today into this evening...Scattered clouds and some fog (locally dense) early will give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon as we will be north of front that is moving through early this morning. A couple CAMS hint that if some elevated showers form in eastern SD this morning, they could drift over our southern areas this afternoon. Something to watch, but most guidance keeps us dry, so will ride with that idea. Dry weather and more sun than Sunday will boost temps into the lower to middle 80s, though east component winds will keep Lake Michigan shore/Door County cooler. Dry weather holds for any evening activities, though patchy fog may occur near Lake Michigan. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Shower and storm chances (15-30%) return late tonight through Wednesday...Showers and storms developing this evening over Dakotas forecast to produce shortwave/upper jet that shifts east toward WI late tonight. Gradient of instability from MN to southern WI, as is the stronger convergence with LLJ. Even so, with the wave and elevated instability farther north, cannot rule out some showers and storms on Tuesday morning, with perhaps slight boost in coverage farther north during peak heating of afternoon as MLCAPEs increase over 1000J/kg. Effective shear over 40 kts would support stronger storm if convection develops. SPC does keep the marginal risk for severe farther south near the more persistent frontal boundary/highest instability. Rain chances (30-60%) then continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as additional as another shortwave moves through the region and the front remains close enough to our area. Similar to expectations for late tonight and Tuesday, appears better signal for severe remains south. However, late Tuesday night through Wednesday, there is stronger forcing farther north and sufficient instability. Seems like this time frame may hold the greatest chances for some stronger storms over our area, especially if things slow a bit and these factors catch up to at least the beginning of peak heating on Wed. FWIW, ML progs show a weak "bump" in severe probs to 5-15% for Wed after a relative minimum in severe potential Mon-Tue. Dry and cooler late this week, then chances for rain (30-40%) return for the weekend...High pressure builds in across the area Wednesday night through Friday, pushing the front and lingering instability south and generally keeping the area dry through the rest of the week. Highs will settle into the 70s regionwide. Low temperatures in the 40s north seem a certainty Thursday night with high overhead. Low end from NBM (5th percentile) even points to potential for upper 30s in typical cool spots near the U.P. border (e.g. KLNL). The high eventually shifts east, allowing for the chance for showers and thunderstorms to return to the area Friday night into next weekend. On the early side, but does seem that Sunday would be the drier of the two days. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms extended from west of Wausau to Oconto, which is expected to end after 06z. A more extensive cloud cover between five and ten thousand feet will slow the arrival of the fog overnight. Thus did not go as low on the visibilities at the TAF sites. A light northwest wind will back to the south/southeast Monday afternoon, except around 18z for KSUE and KMTW. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......Eckberg