Ski Sawmill Snow Report

063 FXUS61 KCTP 090622 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 122 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Windy start to the week with light rain in the northern tier 2) First accumulating snow of the season possible for late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Windy start to the week with light rain in the northern tier Another upper level trough and weak sfc cold front will bring light rain mainly to the northern tier of CPA later tonight through Monday morning. A steady breeze from the west/southwest will shift to the NW and ramp higher into Monday afternoon with peaks gusts up to 40 mph. Breezy conditions will continue through the first part of the week with temperatures rebounding modestly higher by Tuesday. No additional precip is forecast through midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2: First accumulating snow of the season possible for late week There is a growing model signal for a substantial long wave trough to carve out over the eastern U.S. by the end of the week. An amplifying shortwave embedded within the deep upper trough trough should drive a sfc low across the region Thursday and could develop into a potential nor`easter as it tracks offshore. While the the low track and expected impacts are still not clear, precip prospects continue to increase for late in the week. The most likely scenario at this point would lean toward a widespread area of rain Thursday mixing/changing to snow across the higher elevations Thursday night into Friday. Cold air expanding southward behind an increasing NW wind could drive lake effect and upslope precip Friday night into the weekend. Friday and Saturday are fcst to be the coldest days with temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Pockets of low clouds (mainly VFR) will continue to move over much of central Pennsylvania as a low pressure system swings across the Northeastern US. MVFR restrictions are most likely at KBFD, closer to the moisture fetch off the Great Lakes, where -SHRA will also be likely through early Monday afternoon. MVFR restrictions are also expected at KJST, though with less persistence compared to KBFD. Downsloping effects from gusty westerly winds will favor VFR conditions at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT and especially KMDT/KLNS, though intermittent MVFR ceilings remain possible. Winds from 280 to 310 degrees will gust to around 25-30 kts regionwide during the daytime on Monday, with periods of MVFR becoming less likely through the afternoon as drier air filters in across our area. Gusts will subside after sunset with stratocumulus giving way to high clouds through the night. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR with wind from 240-270 deg gusting around 15-25 kts during the daytime. Thu-Fri...Leaning sub-VFR with rain and/or snow possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl/Colbert/Teare