Hunt Hollow Snow Report

606 FXUS61 KBUF 080626 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms expected again today, then drier and less humid Sunday. 2) Unsettled weather returns for the Lower Great Lakes to start the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms expected again today, then drier and less humid Sunday. A few showers will be possible there the early overnight hours, mainly for our counties east of Lake Ontario associated with the departing shortwave. Otherwise, a soupy airmass (humid, dwpts 60s to near 70F) remain over the Lower Great Lakes and temps in the 60s to around 70F. The next feature of interest is a mid-level convectively augment shortwave tracking through the base of the broad trough. Latest CAMs show the convection over Ohio expanding east and northeast and arriving between 09Z-11Z across far Western New York, then work east across the region. Additional chances for showers and storms will then be possible this afternoon, especially along lake breeze boundaries as MLCAPE values ramp up to +2500 j/kg. Given the soupy airmass (PW 1.5"-1.7") heavy rainfall will `likely` be the main threat which could cause some localized issues. The threat for severe weather still appears low at this time. As was noted, bulk shear values remain on the low side (25 knots). That said, a few storms still could produce strong gusty winds. As we work though the evening hours the weak cold front will arrive bringing the potential for some more storms as it crosses the region. After that...we will see a slow but gradual drying trend overnight. A weak surface ridge crosses the region Sunday which will provide mainly dry weather and overall comfortable humidity level. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns for the Lower Great Lakes to start the new work week. A zonal flow early next week will begin to shift southward, with a more noticeable dip late in the week as a deepening upper level low drops southward from Canada. A moisture rich airmass will remain through the beginning of next week, one that will support not only afternoon convection, but the possibility of overnight convection, though exact timing of subtle shortwave troughs is with still great uncertainty at this point in time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Soupy airmass will support patchy fog (lower vsbys), expect localized IFR to LIFR conditions at times at terminals through this morning. A mid-level shortwave will approach the lower Great Lakes this morning, ahead of this disturbance showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will expand northeastward, reaching KJHW and KBUF between 09Z-11Z, then move east through the area this morning. Within any shower/storm expect brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and also this evening with the front. We could also see winds pick up to 25 knots this afternoon ahead of the front, mainly for KIAG and KBUF. With any convection, expect MVFR to LIFR conditions and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots. Outlook... Saturday Night...MVFR to VFR. Chances for showers and storms diminish behind the front. Sunday...VFR. Sunday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chances for periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions. && .MARINE... Ahead of a cold front southwest winds will increase up to 20 knots at times on Lake Erie, producing a modest chop of 1 to 3 foot waves. This front will cross the Lower Great Lakes tomorrow night, with winds becoming more westerly for Sunday. This direction will then focus the higher waves of 2-3 feet on Lake Ontario, and along its southern and eastern shorelines. A weak high pressure ridge axis will extend towards the eastern Great lakes Sunday night with lighter winds and lower wave heights. Note: Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today through this evening. Higher winds and wave action will be possible with any stronger storms. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR/EAJ MARINE...AR