Smugglers' Notch Resort Snow Report

898 FXUS61 KBTV 120650 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 150 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 150 AM EST Thursday... Confidence is increasing in lighter snow amounts and lower impacts for the snow today and tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 150 AM EST Thursday... 1. A coastal low will bring widespread lower elevation rain and wet snow mainly above 1200 feet today and tonight. 2. High confidence for dry weather and above normal temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 150 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A gradually deepening surface low will track from the Ohio Valley east over southern New England before heading off into the Canadian Maritimes today into tomorrow. Despite a favorable storm track for snow, a marginally cold airmass will be in place at the onset, especially at the surface due to a lack of Canadian high pressure to the north. Precipitation will enter southwestern areas this morning but very slowly make its way northeast during the day. By tonight, it should reach the Northeast Kingdom, but the heaviest rates will remain to the south. It will likely never reach the St. Lawrence Valley though. At the onset, surface temperatures will be in the 30s in most places, with low 40s in the warmest valleys. Steep lapse rates will exist with summit levels well below freezing, though a lack of a significantly dry layer will prevent significant wet-bulb cooling. Precipitation will begin as rain in the valleys and snow at the summits. An estimate of initial snow levels is around 1,500 ft. Light rates and daytime occurrence will prevent significant accumulations at the onset outside the mountains. A weak November sun angle will limit some of the warming effects though. Heading into tonight, heavier rates should enter southern areas, and darkness will end any solar radiation. The combination of lowering temperatures due to dynamical cooling and nighttime cooling will allow snow levels to drop a bit, and especially allow for more efficient accumulations at higher elevations with higher snow ratios. By Friday morning, snow levels should be around or below 1,000 ft. While brief periods of snow are possible in the low valleys like the Champlain Valley and the Lower Connecticut Valley, temperatures will likely stay just above freezing and prevent accumulations other than maybe some slush on grassy-type surfaces. As the low tracks to the east heading through Friday, cyclonic northwest flow will develop and maintain periods of upslope snow showers in the higher terrain through Saturday. Boundary layer temperatures will reach their lowest values Saturday morning, with most areas likely seeing temperatures in the 20s. However, that time period will likely be dry and prevent any snow from occurring in the valleys. Warm Lake Champlain temperatures will probably further limit the already marginal accumulations in the immediate Champlain Valley, especially with northwest flow off the lake and downsloping along the eastern Adirondacks. Confidence has increased in a more southerly storm track and a less impactful event. Our deterministic most-likely scenario has snow amounts in the 2-5 inch range for the southern Adirondacks, central Greens and southern Greens around and above 2,000 ft. Areas between 1,000-2,000 ft look to be in the 0-2 inch range, and below 1,000 ft looks to be a slushy coating at most. The main area of uncertainty that remains is the potential for a mesoband to reach southern Vermont. If it reaches, brief accumulations are possible down to the valley floors due to dynamical cooling and an additional couple inches would be possible across the higher terrain. However, this should not significantly change the impacts. At this point, the snowfall looks too light to cause power outages but far southern Vermont will have to be watched in case the mesoband comes in and stalls there for a couple hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Models continue to suggest we could see a few upslope snow showers along the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. This may yield some minor snow accumulation but otherwise not impactful. Increasing subsidence from a building deep layer ridge will bring an end to any shower activity by Monday afternoon. High pressure will remain entrenched across the region through the remainder of the week with the axis of the upper level ridge forcing a series of disturbances to push harmlessly to our north. Temperatures will warm throughout the week with high temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday climbing into the 50s, which will be slightly above normal for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR ceilings will drop to MVFR conditions by 14Z at most terminals with IFR ceilings expected at KRUT and KSLK by 18Z. Precipitation type will be key for visibilities throughout the day as KRUT is expected to stay all rain while KSLK will likely see predominantly snow. This will leave KRUT with MVFR visibilities while KSLK will see visibilities of 2SM or less. KMSS and KEFK will likely stay VFR through the TAF period as the low tracks well to the south. Winds will remain light from the north through the forecast period. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for VTZ018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ034. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Clay AVIATION...Clay