Smugglers' Notch Resort Snow Report

162 FXUS61 KBTV 100701 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 227 AM EDT Monday... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 AM EDT Monday... 1. A weak cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with drier conditions late Tuesday and Wednesday. 2. Widespread showers arrive towards the end of the week, with drier conditions expected heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: 500 mb flow has gone mostly zonal promoting weaker variety systems rather than deeply forced events this week. The next front arrives late this afternoon and will move through this evening. Upper level support remains anemic with primary forcing existing in the 850-700mb layer. Timing coupled with forcing will limit the threat of stronger storms, but CAPE around 1000j/kg and moderate shear could support a rarer stronger cell if it can efficiently tap into low level instability or if outflow interacts with the surface front. PWATs climbing above 1.5" will favor some heavy shower elements and a few cells could produce localized heavy rainfall resulting in ponding. As noted above, flow will be quite progressive leading to a fast exit tonight with drier conditions for Tuesday. Northwest flow tonight increases, especially across Lake Champlain, and may result in some rough lake conditions. Dry weather lingers through Wednesday as the Bermuda High continues its slow retreat into the Atlantic. Temperatures will slowly trend cooler with highs remaining in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s across northern New York and Vermont. KEY MESSAGE 2: A shortwave trough looks to push through the region Thursday into Friday, bringing widespread shower chances towards the end of the week. Deterministic guidance continues to be in good agreement on the general pattern evolution, though there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the system. The current forecast shows rain chances ramping up quickly during the early morning hours on Thursday with widespread rainfall expected across the upper level trough swings through Thursday afternoon. As we get closer we will have to monitor the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon on Thursday, with instability the biggest question at this time. Behind the trough, a cold front is expected to bring below normal temperatures and drier weather to the region for Friday into the upcoming weekend. Deep layer ridging is expected to develop by Saturday which should bring plenty of sunshine with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected through the period, with light winds overnight trending southerly 3-7 kts after 12Z Tuesday. Only exception overnight will be a period of IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KMPV, mainly in the 07-13Z time frame. After 18Z Tuesday, the approach of a weak disturbance will likely bring scattered to widely scattered showers and a few storms, mainly to northern areas. Given uncertainty on areal coverage, and eventual timing of this activity, have only mentioned at KMSS at this point. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd AVIATION...Kremer