49 Degrees North Mountain Resort snow report

919 FXUS66 KOTX 270738 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1238 AM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times Wednesday through Friday. The threat for thunderstorms will be localized to mainly the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday then more widespread Thursday and Friday. A few storms may be strong or severe with hail, gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours. - Very warm Wednesday and Thursday with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Heat related impacts possible to those that are sensitive to the heat especially to those without adequate cooling and/or hydration. - Gusty winds through the Cascade gaps into the Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Moses Lake Area Friday afternoon and evening with a 40-50% chance for gusts of greater than 40 mph. && .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms retreats to the lower Idaho Panhandle Wednesday then becomes widespread on Thursday into Friday. Thursday will be warm with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Breezy to windy conditions on Friday especially through the Cascade gaps. The weekend will be drier and occasionally breezy. && .DISCUSSION... ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible across the Inland Northwest Late Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening... Today and Tonight: Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows an unusual weather pattern, with a deep fetch of moisture with ties to Texas getting wrapped up into NE Washington and the ID Panhandle as a deep low over central California and Nevada draws up increasing moisture from the southeast. An embedded mid level wave responsible for the bands of precipitation early this morning are forecast by all models to decrease and eventually come to an end this morning over northern Washington. Although a moist boundary layer and daytime heating may allow convective showers to develop over the higher terrain as shown by some of the latest CAM`s models. The saturated boundary layer this morning over NE Washington and the ID Panhandle will lead to an abundance of stratus. The precise timing of the stratus burning off will have an impact on high temperatures, but the late May sun will allow for the stratus to lift by late morning and then lift into a cumulus field this afternoon with partly cloudy skies allowing for a significant warmup in temperatures compared to yesterday. Eyes for this afternoon/evening will turn to convection that CAM`s models suggest will develop over the Clearwaters. Thunderstorms will be monitored as they track up towards the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Shoshone county. Models are in general agreement that storms will weaken when they reach these areas with more convective inhibition in place, but convective outflow gusts up to 40 MPH is possible with any outflow boundaries that develop. Thursday and Thursday Night: The Storm Prediction Center continued to carry a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The deep low remains in place to our south, with south-southeast flow persisting with a stronger mid level wave progged to come through late Thursday afternoon into the evening. Models are showing initially some convective inhibition in place through at least mid- afternoon Thursday which will suppress cumulus develop and allow for a warm, muggy day as high temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. These warm temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 50s (locally low 60s) will allow for high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to develop with the bulk of guidance showing 1000-1500 J/kg, locally as high as 2000-3000 J/KG. This combined with 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kts will lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as that mid level wave moves in late Thursday afternoon into the evening. The shear will be favorable for long- lived storms, with CAM`s models showing increasing thunderstorm activity Thursday evening, with some activity continuing into the overnight hours. These high of CAPE values supports the potential for large hail. In addition, 25-40 degree temperature dewpoint spreads will contribute to enhanced downdrafts from storms, leading to a threat of damaging wind gusts. Some of the CAM`s models currently show pockets of 50-60 MPH or greater gusts from storms. Lastly, torrential downpours could lead to flash flooding in areas of steep terrain, near burn scars, or urbanized areas. Friday through Sunday: An upper trough dropping towards the region will finally eject the low to our south toward the northeast, but south- southwest flow will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms as moisture and instability linger. Although increasing winds in Central WA will lead to the best instability shifting to NE WA/ID Panhandle during the afternoon. On Saturday as the trough pushes in drier, cooler, and more stable air enters. Although with some resemblence of a trough lingering through the weekend a chance of showers lingers mainly over NE Washington into the ID Panhandle. Monday and Tuesday: Ensemble means show upper ridging to start off the new work week allowing for another warming trend with dry conditions. JW && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Bands of rain showers will continue to move into NE WA/N ID Panhandle tonight with the main focus shifting north of the Spokane area TAF sites after 07z. Rain has significant moistened the boundary layer with areas of IFR and MVFR conditions already out there as of 530z. As rain comes to an end the saturated boundary layer will promote a continued increase in IFR/MVFR conditions through 15z including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. The palouse has been more on the edge of significant rain but even here CIGS have lowered to MVFR at KPUW. On Thursday the strong late May sun will help to lift the stratus in the morning with conditions becoming VFR for all TAF sites by early afternoon. Models show isolated thunderstorms developing again after 20z Wed over the Clearwaters, but with model guidance showing the storms weakening through the evening prior to reaching KLWS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in degraded CIGS (IFR/MVFR) into Wednesday morning for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE but to what degree carries lower confidence due to a deep, increasingly saturated boundary layer after evening rain with multiple stratus layers expected. Moderate confidence of continued MVFR CIGS at KPUW tongiht, and VFR for KLWS. There is high confidence that VFR conditions persist at KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 79 53 89 55 77 47 / 10 0 0 70 20 30 Coeur d`Alene 80 56 90 58 75 49 / 10 10 0 70 20 30 Pullman 74 51 84 51 70 45 / 10 10 0 60 20 30 Lewiston 79 57 88 58 77 52 / 10 10 20 60 50 40 Colville 85 49 92 51 79 44 / 20 0 0 60 60 60 Sandpoint 82 54 90 55 76 48 / 20 0 0 70 40 50 Kellogg 83 55 93 56 76 48 / 10 10 10 80 40 50 Moses Lake 86 55 93 55 80 45 / 10 0 0 60 30 0 Wenatchee 85 62 91 61 74 50 / 0 0 10 70 40 0 Omak 87 59 94 60 79 51 / 30 0 0 70 80 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$