Big Boulder Ski Area Snow Report

595 FXUS61 KPHI 190626 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 226 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase in marine and coastal impacts from the developing Nor`easter into the upcoming week. However, significant inland impacts remain unlikely. Aviation section updated for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Frost concerns for portions of the area early this morning. 2. A nor`easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid- Atlantic is expected to bring coastal impacts and create hazardous marine conditions through at least the middle of this week. 3. A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated high tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost concerns for portions of the area early this morning. High pressure extending from Maine down to Virginia. The combination of clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s. However, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten between that high and low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast lifting to the north. North to northeast winds will increase to around 10 mph by daybreak, limiting temperatures from falling much farther. As a result, really not looking for a hard freeze to develop, but frost is likely, especially north and west of the I-95 corridor. Frost Advisories remain in effect through 9 am. After a cold start to the day, high temperatures rebound into the low to mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A nor`easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic is expected to bring coastal impacts and create hazardous marine conditions through at least the middle of this week. As an upper-trough continues to shift eastward away from the Eastern Seaboard, a portion of it has become cutoff from the parent trough and is in the process of becoming a closed low at this time. Strong and expansive high pressure is building over the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Northeast. Latest surface analysis indicates that an area of surface low pressure has formed off the coast of the Carolinas, and it will track generally northeastward over the next several days off the coast. Overall, confidence has increased that through at least Wednesday, the nor`easter will remain close enough to bring multiple impacts to our coastal areas. Persistently strong northeast winds will push water towards the coast. Multiple rounds of coastal flooding are likely (see key message 3 below). Increasing seas may result in beach erosion in some areas as well. For areas along the immediate coast, gusty winds up to around 30-35 mph are possible. Inland, impacts are expected to be quite limited with how far offshore the storm is likely to be. In fact, outside of a few showers at the coast, little to no precipitation is likely at all over land areas. For Thursday and beyond, there appears to be a growing consensus in model guidance that the storm will begin to shift farther east out to sea, lessening marine and coastal impacts. Both the ECENS and GEFS suites feature the low making its closest approach by Thursday morning and then moving away, though there are still a few members of each that indicate it could remain around for longer. These appear to be becoming outliers however. KEY MESSAGE 3...A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated high tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding. As the nor`easter develops and meanders offshore through at least the middle of the week, there will be a persistent and strong northeast wind in place. This will lead to a prolonged period of onshore flow resulting in multiple elevated high tide cycles. The first high tide cycle of concern is currently expected to be Tuesday evening as spotty minor to minor tidal flooding is forecast. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Tuesday evening high tide cycle for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Kent, and Sussex County Delaware. This Advisory goes from 3 PM to 9 PM Tuesday and is for widespread minor coastal flooding. The high tide cycle late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, looks to bring another round of spotty minor to widespread minor tidal flooding. An additional Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Kent, and Sussex County Delaware. Additional coastal flood hazards will likely be needed for high tide cycles Wednesday, and potentially Thursday, as the high tide cycles remain elevated. From the current forecast, Wednesday evening`s high tide cycle looks to be the one of most concern with widespread minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding. Beyond Wednesday evening, another round of coastal flooding is possible but uncertainty remains in the exact extent as it will be dependent on the location of the nor`easter. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR/SKC. N winds 5 kt or less. High confidence. Today...VFR. N-NE winds 8 to 12 kt, though 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at KMIV/KACY. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. N winds 5 to 10 kt, though 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at KACY. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR. There is a low chance for a few showers (generally 20% or less) to impact KMIV and KACY. Sub- VFR ceilings are also possible at times. Breezy N-NE winds at times. Thursday night through Friday...VFR expected. && .MARINE... A tight pressure gradient develops over the waters as an offshore nor`easter approaches from the south. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for northern NJ ocean waters for today and tonight, and Gale Warnings are in effect for most coastal ocean and offshore ocean waters starting today. SCA conditions develop on Delaware Bay later today. Gale Warnings spread north tonight. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Sustained SCA conditions expected with periods of gales also expected. North-northeast winds of 15-25 kt with gusts as high as 40 kt at times. Seas 6-12 feet. Visibility restrictions will be likely in rain and spray at times. It currently appears that winds and seas will begin to subside on Thursday, but how quickly remains uncertain. Thursday night through Friday...Advisory conditions will remain possible with north winds potentially gusting near 25 kt and seas 4-7 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060-061- 101>106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ020-022>027. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ008>010-012- 015. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for ANZ450. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455-481>483- 485. Gale Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ480. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Cooper/Gorse/Guzzo/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/Gorse/MPS MARINE...Cooper/Gorse/MPS