Blue Mountain Ski Area snow report

255 FXUS61 KPHI 040740 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat for severe weather today has increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the region through today. The heat will start to break for Sunday and especially Monday. 2. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the area late this afternoon into this evening and have the potential to produce severe weather and localized flash flooding. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday with a continuing threat for both severe weather and flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the region through today. The heat will start to break for Sunday and especially Monday. The strong ridging that has been dominating our weather pattern is finally starting to slowly break down. As a result, temperatures today will begin to abate somewhat. However, high temperatures will still be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, hottest along and southeast of the I-95 corridor. Another day of west to northwest flow of similar magnitude to Friday should once again support the immediate coastline warming up considerably before the sea breeze develops. Elsewhere, the gradually weakening ridge aloft will result in the slightly cooler temperatures. Dewpoints should mix out again into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees by afternoon, which results in 100-108 degree heat indices. The Extreme Heat Warning for our entire forecast area (excluding the New Jersey barrier islands) remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. While heat indices may fall just shy of warning criteria today, impacts will likely be worsened by the multiple days of heat and busy outdoor holiday festivities. Notably cooler temperatures are expected across the region on Sunday, with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s across most of eastern PA and NJ, and low 90s for the urban corridor as well as Delmarva. With that said, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with heat indices getting into the mid 90s to low 100s from the Philly metro and south. By Monday, with a frontal boundary draped across the area, much cooler temperatures are expected. Placement of the front is uncertain, but north of the front temperatures will likely only be in the mid 70s, and low to mid 80s to the south. South of the front where temperatures are still fairly warm, the forecast remains complicated by the potential for widespread showers and storms. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the area late this afternoon into this evening and have the potential to produce severe weather and localized flash flooding. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday with a continuing threat for both severe weather and flash flooding. The mid level ridge over the area will continue breaking down into today as a mid and upper level trough pivots through eastern Canada. Several impulses of energy will be pivoting around this feature towards the area by late today and and there will also be a cold front approaching from the north. This will lead to increasing chances for showers and storms across the area beginning as early as mid afternoon with the highest threat for widespread storms occuring this evening. ML CAPE values are progged to once again reach 2000+ j/kg with increasing amounts of shear compared to Friday. 0-3/0-6 km shear values look to be upwards of 30/40 knots by later today. And with steep low and mid level lapse rates, this will also result in very high DCAPE values. The upshot is that there`s an increasing threat for severe weather today and the Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded portions of Delmarva and extreme SE PA and SW NJ to an ENHANCED risk for severe weather today. This means numerous severe thunderstorms are possible. Elsewhere across our forecast area there`s a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms meaning scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat but PWATs close to 2 inches will also support at least a localized flash flooding threat. There remain differences in the models regarding the exact timing and coverage of today`s storms but the overall consensus indicates an MCS likely developing over NE PA very late in the day and moving southeast into our forecast area into this evening. The severe weather threat should largely be over by the overnight period but it`s possible there will be some additional showers and storms as the cold front moves south into the area then stalls. On Sunday, the severe weather threat is expected to become confined to mainly the Philly metro and points south, but this will be dependent on frontal placement. However, widespread showers and storms are also expected north of the front. In fact, model guidance is indicating PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year and near the daily observed maximum. CAPE also looks to be tall and "skinny", another setup that favors heavy rainfall. Given these factors, rainfall rates in storms could exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour and it`s possible storms may also train over the same areas. The WPC has continues to indicated a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for the I-95 corridor and points west both Sunday and Monday, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for the remainder of the area. Storms could last into a good portion of the night Sunday night. The severe threat should diminish by the overnight but the flash flood threat may continue. Unfortunately the aformentioned front is likely to remain stalled near the area Monday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will lead to additional widespread showers and storms. The severe weather threat looks to be lower by this time but the flash flood threat will remain elevated, especially since the same areas have the potential of being hit with multiple rounds of showers/storms over successive days. Even into next Tuesday there could be more showers and storms before the front should finally push south of the area by Wednesday leading to the weather trending drier. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of overnight...Largely VFR. Patchy fog possible. West winds near 5 kts. High/medium confidence. Today...VFR overall. Risk of scattered showers/t-storms after 21z but better chances will arrive in the evening. Winds generally westerly increasing to 10 kts with some afternoon gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Showers and storms likely to affect most TAF sites in the evening bringing brief restrictions as low as IFR along with the potential for strong wind gusts that could exceed 40 knots. Showers/storms should largely be done by the overnight period but can`t rule out some localized fog forming. Outlook... Sunday through Monday night...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions expected at times. Tuesday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially in the afternoon hours each day, which could lead to brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Southwest winds increasing to around 15 with some gusts up to 20 knots by this afternoon. Some heavy showers and storms could affect the waters by this evening leading to locally strong winds over 40 knots and reduced visibilities. Outlook... No marine headlines are currently anticipated through Wednesday with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. Showers and storms are possible each day, with activity being the most widespread Sunday through Monday night. Visibility restrictions and strong winds are possible with the strongest storms. Rip Currents... For Saturday, winds will be from the west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be around 1 to 2 feet. There will be a weak southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. This results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For Sunday, winds will be from the east around 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be around 1 foot or less. There will be a weak southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. This results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... The record breaking heat is forecast to continue across our area through today. Temperature records for our climate sites are listed below: All Time Record High Temperatures Site Record / Date Allentown (ABE) 105 / July 3, 1966 AC Airport (ACY) 106 / June 28, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 104 / August 7, 1918 Georgetown (GED) 104 / July 22 & 23, 2011 Mount Pocono (MPO) 103 / July 3, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 106 / August 7, 1918 Reading (RDG) 106 / July 22, 2011 Trenton (TTN) 106 / July 9, 1936 & July 22, 2011 Wilmington (ILG) 107 / August 7, 1918 All Time Record Warmest Low Temperatures Site Record / Date Allentown (ABE) 79 / July 15, 1995 AC Airport (ACY) 84 / July 23, 2011 AC Marina (55N) 82 / July 21, 2019 Georgetown (GED) 84 / July 23, 2011 Mount Pocono (MPO) 76 / July 12, 1952 Philadelphia (PHL) 83 / July 24, 2010 & July 23, 2011 Reading (RDG) 81 / August 7, 1918 Trenton (TTN) 84 / August 11, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 84 / August 7, 1918 Record Number of Consecutive 100+ Degree Days Site Record / Date Allentown (ABE) 3 days / July 9-11, 1936 & July 2-4, 1966 AC Airport (ACY) 3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 22-24, 2011 AC Marina (55N) 1 day / Occurred multiple times Georgetown (GED) 2 days / Most recent June 24-25, 2025 Mount Pocono (MPO) 1 day / July 3, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 8-10, 1993 Reading (RDG) 3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011 Trenton (TTN) 3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011 Wilmington (ILG) 3 days / Most recent July 9-11, 1936 Record High Temperatures July 4 Site Record / Year Allentown (ABE) 102 / 1949 AC Airport (ACY) 102 / 1966 AC Marina (55N) 99 / 1966 Georgetown (GED) 100 / 1966 Mount Pocono (MPO) 99 / 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 103 / 1966 Reading (RDG) 100 / 1911 & 1966 Trenton (TTN) 99 / 1919, 1999, & 2010 Wilmington (ILG) 102 / 1966 Record Warmest Low Temperatures July 4 Site Record / Year Allentown (ABE) 75 / 1999 AC Airport (ACY) 75 / 1974, 1983, 1999, & 2002 AC Marina (55N) 79 / 2002 Georgetown (GED) 75 / 1999 & 2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 70 / 2002 & 2013 Philadelphia (PHL) 79 / 1919 Reading (RDG) 78 / 1966 Trenton (TTN) 78 / 1966 Wilmington (ILG) 76 / 1999 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012>023-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ024>026. DE...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012- 015-019-020. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM/Staarmann AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/RCM MARINE...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/MJL/MPS/RCM