Bruce Mound Ski Area Snow Report

254 FXUS63 KLSX 190749 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 249 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue at least through the morning hours, mainly along/south of I-70/I-64 in Missouri and Illinois respectively. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. - Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The best chances (40-60%) are in two areas: 1) northeast Missouri west-central Illinois and 2) southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat. - Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern Kansas east/southeast toward the Mississippi River. The strongest cores (and highest instantaneous rainfall rates) have been on the southern edge, with more stratiform rain and embedded thunderstorms to the north/northeast. This is what is largely impacting our region, though a small portion of central Missouri as well as southeast Missouri will be under some risk for flash flooding mainly through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in these areas where 2-3+" of rain may occur in a narrow WNW-ESE swath. Gusty winds are also possible, though radar imagery has shown convection to be mainly outflow dominant, which makes it more difficult for severe wind gusts to make it down to the surface. The low-level jet gradually veers more westerly and does weaken, though some moisture convergence lingers along/south of I-70 toward midday. Therefore, I would expect some lingering showers to percolate at least until that point, if not a bit longer. Where exactly the effective front will be is still an unknown, but best guess is near the Missouri-Arkansas border. That would mean afternoon development of scattered showers and thunderstorms may be to the south of our southeastern Missouri counties, but it will be close. Therefore, there is a conditional severe threat down that way, mainly during the early evening hours. The convective mode may be mixed, with supercells and line segments possible. Damaging winds is the primary threat, but any supercell would have a low chance of marginally severe hail and/or a brief, weak tornado due to the enhanced low-level shear/helicity near the boundary. Another area of potential concern is across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois this afternoon. Some CAMs have a cluster of right-moving supercells that move southeast with time through the morning and into the afternoon. The exact track of this activity (assuming it does occur) as well as the environment in our area is not certain. However, if there is some partial clearing and that area is able to destabilize, those supercells could continue into that area. Large hail would be the main threat in that area with any supercells, with damaging wind gusts possible with any mergers. To further complicate matters, some CAMs (such as the 6Z HRRR) suggest an MCV may track east/northeast across northeast Missouri/west central Illinois this afternoon. IF this feature is real, it could also foster renewed convective development, though the timing may favor central/northern Illinois more. Convective initiation may also be aided to its south/southeast, which could mean a few cells develop in southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois by early evening. Given the very complex nature of the forecast over the next 12-18 hours, there is very low confidence in how things will evolve. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 (Thursday - Friday) Dry weather with near to below normal temperatures are still expected to end the work week as a weak surface anticyclone moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley. (Friday Night - Tuesday) There remains some subtle, but notable, differences with the large scale pattern across the CONUS this weekend into early next week. The EPS remains deeper and farther to the west with the midlevel trough across the Great Lakes. This sends a cooler air mass far enough west into our region, and keeps us largely dry. The GEFS is weaker with the trough and a bit to the east. That means our area barely gets brushed with the cooler air mass, and sets up a potential MCS Sunday night into Monday morning as the "ring of fire" sets up more to the east and more into the mid-Mississippi Valley compared to the central Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Thunderstorms over western Missouri will move east and affect COU/JEF between 06-10Z and the St. Louis area terminals between 08-12Z. There is a lower chance at UIN between 08-12Z, so have kept just a PROB30 group there. Additional thunderstorms will be possible during the period with the best chance at UIN between 20-24Z. The heavier showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in heavy rainfall and wind gusts over 30 knots. There will also be some high MVFR or low VFR ceilings move south into UIN and the St. Louis area terminals between 12-18Z. Winds will remain mainly light outside of thunderstorms. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...Britt