Bruce Mound Ski Area Snow Report

241 FXUS63 KLSX 290814 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain above normal today through Thursday. - Widespread 1-3 inches of rain is expected as a slow moving cold front drifts through the area Wednesday night through Friday. The higher end of this range of rainfall is expected across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 A surface high centered over the Great Lakes Region will continue to produce dry weather for the Mid Mississippi Valley today. Winds will turn to the south this morning and warm southerly flow will continue through Wednesday ahead of the next storm system. The warm southerly low-level flow combined with a strong long wave ridge over the area will produce above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today, and the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday for most of the area. Latest guidance shows the upstream low pressure system moving into the Plains on Wednesday morning, and the associated warm/q- stationary front extends from the surface low over western Oklahoma northeast through Kansas into southern/central Iowa. Southerly 850mb flow in the deterministic GFS and ECMWF generates weak to moderate low level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the front Wednesday. This produces a few hundredths of an inch of QPF in far northeast Missouri into west central Illinois Wednesday morning. The combination of some light precip in the morning and more extensive cloud cover closer to the front will keep temperatures several degrees cooler in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois on Wednesday. The deterministic temperature forecast from the NBM has highs around 80, however the max temp IQRs are around 7-8 degrees, and the 25th percentile stays in the 70s. Therefore highs in the mid to upper 70s are certainly possible in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois Wednesday afternoon if the cooler solutions come to pass. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 The trough drifts east through the central Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night and drags a cool high pressure system out of southern Canada into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This pushes the surface front slowly southeast out of Iowa and through Missouri and Illinois by 00Z Saturday. The trough will still have residual tropical moisture from the remnants of hurricane Polo wrapped into it, and locally heavy rain is still a possibility. However, model trends continue to favor northwest Missouri for the heaviest rain. LREF mean precipitable water values drop as the front moves from northwest into central and northeast Missouri Thursday, and continue to drop slowly through Friday. The latest storm-total QPF for Wednesday night through Friday night from the NBM ranges from about 2.5 inches in northeast Missouri to a little over an inch in south central Illinois. Flash flood guidance is lowest where QPF is highest in northeast Missouri, but it`s still 1.75+ inches in 1 hour. Forecast soundings are still supportive of heavy rain with warm cloud depths in excess of 12kft and a deep moist layer aloft. However there occasionally indications of dry air entrainment which would likely eat into rainfall totals, and the front remains progressive through our area which lowers the chance for training. Bottom line is that occasional heavy rain is possible given the thermodynamics and remnant tropical moisture, confidence that there will be enough rain to cause flooding is still low at this time. Temperatures in the rain on Thursday in parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois will drop back to near or below normal in the mid to upper 70s. The remainder of the area will see another warm day in the mid to upper 80s well south of the front and the more persistent rain and cloud cover. Cool high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday into Saturday north of the front. It also looks like there will be lingering clouds and rain, mostly along and south of I-44 in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois both Friday and Saturday. Guidance temperatures drop back to near and below normal between the lingering precipitation and cooler airmass moving into the region. Another short wave aloft moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late in the weekend which brings a reinforcing shot of cool air down into the Mississippi Valley late Sunday into Monday. This keeps temperatures several degrees below normal int the upper 60s to around 70 Sunday and Monday. Could even see temperatures falling below 50 over a good portion of the forecast area on Monday morning as the reinforcing high settles across the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Predominantly dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period, except for the potential for patchy river valley steam fog around daybreak Tuesday. KSUS is the most favored terminal to be impacted by fog. Calm or light easterly winds will become southerly by late Tuesday morning. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Pfahler