Bruce Mound Ski Area snow report

584 FXUS63 KLSX 090340 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1040 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe Thursday and Friday afternoons with damaging winds the primary threat along with locally heavy rainfall. - Mostly dry weather with temperatures slightly above average are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Dry weather is forecast tonight with light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the mid-Missouri Valley and head east/southeast late tonight into early Thursday morning. This activity should weaken gradually with time as it enters central/northeast Missouri due to an abating low-level jet and lesser instability to work with. A remnant MCV is likely to remain from this morning convection and work eastward. By early-mid afternoon, this feature should help develop renewed convection downstream, mostly likely along/east of the Mississippi River. Instability will increase with time, and combined with some enhanced (~30 knots) effective shear downstream of the aforementioned MCV, at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur. Damaging winds will be the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall from roughly 2 PM until 10 PM. While the severe threat likely will wane by mid-late evening, the low-level jet does ramp up. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence on the nose of the jet should lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois. These storms may tend to train (especially if they stay elevated) over the same areas so the threat for isolated flash flooding may increase. Precipitable water values are expected to be high, generally above 1.75" or closer to the 95th percentile of climatology. Flash flood guidance though is also real high (>3"/3 hr), and the low-level jet does veer about 30 degrees from 0600 to 1200 UTC Friday. This should help shift convection equatorward overnight, lessening the duration of accumulating rainfall. Therefore, will hold off on a flash flood watch for now. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday - Saturday Night) Forecast uncertainty increases after Thursday night. Deterministic model guidance is hinting at another midlevel shortwave trough (or convectively-induced MCV) moving eastward in zonal flow aloft. The timing/track/strength of this feature is unknown, but additional showers and thunderstorms should develop by Friday afternoon. Similar to Thursday afternoon, there should be plenty of instability and just enough shear in place for the threat of damaging wind gusts. At this early juncture, the best chances of thunderstorms and severe weather would be across southeast Missouri. This is where the effective frontal boundary is most likely to be located, but the exact location will of course depend heavily on the evolution of convection Thursday night. Friday night into Saturday morning may have a subsequent round of showers and thunderstorms as the low-level jet increases. Exactly where and how organized this round will be is highly uncertain, but I would tend to favor southeast Missouri and points south. Each preceding round of convection may tend to shift the effective front farther south and deterministic guidance (especially coarser resolution) tends to be too far north with these subsequent rounds. If parts of southeast Missouri and adjacent southwest Illinois do end up receiving additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the flash flood threat would increase though at this time range there is too much uncertainty to say whether or not any given location will see multiple rounds. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) A record-breaking mid/upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains late this weekend into early next week with deep northeasterly flow across the mid-Mississippi Valley. A shift to dry weather along with temperatures running slightly above normal seems likely during this period of time. There is some uncertainty with the exact strength/placement of the mid/upper level ridge heading into the middle of next week. One cluster of the 500-hPa height pattern has a more elongated west-east ridge (~25% of LREF members) over our area. If this scenario were to occur, highs more into the mid 90s would be expected. However, even in that scenario, surface dewpoints should tend to lower with time and heat index values likely would stay largely below 100 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a cluster (~10% of members) that has a much deeper trough moving across the Great Lakes/northeast. This scenario would potentially lead to much cooler (highs mid 80s) temperatures. The current forecast lies between these two opposite ends of the spectrum, and more toward the middle two clusters which comprises a large majority of LREF members. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Very light winds and a clear sky are expected for much of the night, but thunderstorms developing to the west over Kansas and western Missouri are expected to gradually push eastward Thursday morning. They`ll be weakening to remnant showers as they arrive, leaving low confidence in any impacts in central Missouri or Quincy. However, as they move east toward the Mississippi River by afternoon, redevelopment is expected. This is more likely to affect the St Louis metro TAF sites, though confidence is only about 30 percent at this range. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop elsewhere Thursday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in any other TAF. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX