Buck Hill Ski Area Snow Report

203 FXUS63 KDMX 030617 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity will persist through Friday and perhaps beyond. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas along and south of Interstate 80. - Scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of western and northern Iowa through this morning, but severe weather is unlikely. Low thunderstorm chances (~30%) are then forecast in far northeastern Iowa late tonight into Friday morning, where there will be a marginal risk of severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 A large heat dome remains entrenched across the southeastern and central U.S., with a deep-layer ridge extending northwest from it that will steadily build over the Midwest and Iowa through the end of the week. This will support a continuation of the hot and humid conditions we have seen for much of the week already, and little change has been made to the temperature and humidity forecast, nor has any change been made to the ongoing Heat Advisory in our central and southern counties that runs through Friday evening. The only fly in the ointment regarding heat persistence would be convective/precipitation impacts, but those appear generally less likely the next couple of days, at least during peak heating times. At the surface, a large ridge lies to our southeast beneath the aforementioned heat dome, while a broad low pressure trough remains in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. A largely washed out surface trough/boundary extends from that area up into the Midwest, and currently appears to lie across far northern and northwestern Iowa. Meanwhile, the nocturnal low-level jet has once again developed/intensified since last evening, but tonight is oriented more over eastern Nebraska and pointing into the Iowa/Minnesota/South Dakota tri-state region. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in northwestern Iowa over the last few hours, as a result of the strengthening low-level jet overlying the nebulous surface boundary. As the jet pivots slightly northeastward early this morning, it will lead to an expansion of showers and storms across our northern and western counties, though instantaneous coverage should remain isolated to scattered and thus POPs are capped around 50% in that area. Without upper-level support for ascent and with effective bulk shear fairly weak and steadily weakening further, severe weather is unlikely. The showers and storms will then gradually fade out this morning after sunrise as the jet diminishes and the warm layer aloft reasserts itself. A 500 MB trough will move east northeastward across the Dakotas today, overtopping the ridge and then turning more southeastward late tonight. It is likely that an MCS will develop in the regions to our north around this evening, then track southeastward across Wisconsin and surrounding areas as a result. There is a possibility these storms could scrape our far northeastern counties late tonight/Friday morning, however, with the synoptic ridge building overhead it is more likely they will remain farther northeast toward Wisconsin, and most model guidance has trended in that direction as well. The SPC Convective Outlook reflects this trend, with a Marginal Risk coming down to around Mason City and Waterloo, but the higher risk categories shifting into Minnesota/Wisconsin/Lake Michigan. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 Nocturnal and morning convection, mainly across northern Iowa, is expected to continue each day through at least Sunday morning. With only modest forcing severe chances each day are fairly low. The next more organized convection chance is not until early next week and that will help to squash the ridge and bring at least some relief to temperatures for a few days. Until then, heat continues this weekend with heat indicies in the upper 90s to low 100s across southern and into central Iowa. With the holiday weekend coming up it is important to remember heat safety for any outdoor plans that are in place. Minimize time outside, hydrate, and take breaks in the shade. By late week the thermal ridge looks to rebuild with heat and humidity lifting back north into the area, along with continued scattered storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The expectation remains for showers and storms to develop further across northern Iowa through the morning hours, but should remain VFR. Exact timing and coverage details may need to be adjusted slightly based on trends over the next several hours. Otherwise, widespread LLWS is expected through the morning for all sites but KOTM, before decreasing after 14-16z. Drying conditions are then expected across the terminals beyond 16z, with winds out of the south/southwest increasing up to 15-20 knots. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for IAZ057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Bury