Ski-Tonka Snow Report

320 FXUS63 KMPX 290802 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected to move west to east across the area today. The highest accumulation of around an inch is expected across southern Minnesota through Wednesday. - Dry weather resumes behind the departing system, with no other significant rainfalls for the first week of October. - High temperatures will remain in the 60s and low 70s, with lows remaining too warm for any frost chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 The leading edge of the showers that are expected to move across the region today are stretching from northwestern Minnesota through the eastern portions of North and South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. These showers will move west to east across the area today as a trough moves across southern Canada with a surface low spinning up underneath, in addition to a mid level occlusion in the southwestern US. A broad area of lift is being observed between the two, resulting in a broad line of weak to moderate rain showers with some rumbles of thunder over North Dakota this morning. The strength of showers is expected to slowly increase as low level frontogenesis enhanced by WAA ramps up between the two aforementioned systems, with rain amounts increasing towards the later part of today and into Wednesday. Areas of western MN where the rain is arriving this morning can expect to see around a quarter inch up to a half inch at most. Amounts increase to around a half inch in eastern MN including the Twin Cities metro, and the highest amounts will push farther south still as the boundary stalls due to slowing motion of the Canadian branch of the system, with the position of the stationary front expected to settle over northern Iowa and into southeastern Minnesota. The position of the stationary boundary will be the locations that see the greatest chance for training rain showers and therefore localized flooding, and at least right now appears most likely along I-90 in southern MN as depicted by the low level wind vectors within the various guidance. The NBM has continued to tone down the overall amount of QPF this far north, instead favoring the areas just to the south of the MPX coverage area for the amounts over an inch and even beyond that. Subsidence increases by the end of the week as a surface high slides into the northern plains on the heels of the departing system, resulting in dry conditions and near normal temperatures to end the week and into the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected at night with lows dropping into the 40s by early next week, however not enough to consider frost being a possibility just yet. Ensemble guidance shows little in the way of additional precipitation chances with a small chance on Sunday, however the better environment remains farther to the north where a trough slides across southern Canada. Our average temperatures continue to decrease especially now that we are past the autumn equinox, with minutes of daylight being lost more quickly now. We will keep an eye on frost chances, but for now they are beyond the traditional 7 day forecast with the colder air still locked up north. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Current satellite imagery shows a plume of BKN to OVC clouds moving eastward across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. We`re starting to see BKN to OVC skies at all MN terminals with CIGs between 3-5 kft. Rain showers and further lowering of CIGs will arrive during the morning hours, starting in western MN around 12z before progressing east through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours. As rain begins, CIGs will drop to MVFR and then IFR categories. Isolated instances of heavier rain within the overall light to moderate rain showers could reduce VIS to 3SM. As the main slug of rain moves east, isolated showers will be possible through the remainder of the day. IFR CIGs will persist through the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will increase during the morning, becoming south/southwest at 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20 knots possible. It`s worth noting, another widespread fog event is looking more and more likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. KMSP...-SHRA will begin during the late morning timeframe, persisting through the early afternoon. TEMPO group from 17-20z remains in TAF for instances of moderate to heavier bursts of rain, that could result in lower VIS and CIGs. Slight improvements in CIGs to MVFR during the late afternoon and evening, becoming IFR after sunset. Winds will become south/southwest through the day, with gusts to 20 knots possible. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...IFR, chc LIFR/FG in mrng then VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...LPR