Ski-Tonka Snow Report

902 FXUS63 KMPX 080701 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 201 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A west-to-east moving cold front will trigger a couple rounds of showers and storms today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is the primary threat - Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain chances returning Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 .REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TUESDAY... Current mid-level satellite imagery (as of 1:20pm) shows strong and anomalous upper level system over the Northern Rockies, with associated upper level jet and diffluent flow overspreading the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This feature within the overall synoptic flow will promote an increase in rain chances this evening and overnight timeframe across the area. A piece of energy embedded within the diffluent flow will move across the Dakotas this afternoon/evening before moving into MN during the evening and overnight timeframe. At the surface and in the low levels, deep southerly will continue to promote warm air advection across the area with moisture values steadily increasing. Increasing moisture coupled with sufficient forcing will lead to pre-frontal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will move west to east across the northern half of the CWA late this afternoon and evening. The next bout of showers and storms will occur during the overnight/pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. 850mb winds associated with the LLJ will increase after midnight across MN. This coupled with sufficient low level moisture and upper level forcing will induce scattered showers and storms across the area, generally across the eastern half of MN and into WI. With 175-225 percent of normal PWAT values present, the main threat will be heavy rainfall and localized areas of flash flooding. On-and-off showers will be possible through the remainder of the morning. The surface boundary associated with this system will move west to east across MN Tuesday afternoon/evening with FROPA for the metro during the evening. An isolated shower/storm will be possible along this boundary during the afternoon and evening, especially across southern MN. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... West/northwesterly flow will resume on Wednesday, with much drier air advecting in from the west. Dew point temperatures will fall back into the middle 50s with highs in the upper 70s, making for a really pleasant day. Much of the same can be expected on Thursday. On Friday, winds will begin to turn more to the southwest. As a result, moisture values will increase ahead of the next frontal boundary that will move through Friday evening/overnight timeframe. Low-end chances of showers/storms return the the forecast on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 One main swath of RA/TSRA moving across much of central-eastern MN at initialization while keeping an eye on a second swath of RA/TSRA over far NW IA/SW MN moving ENE. Both areas will produce RA/TSRA at all TAF sites prior to sunrise, and potentially longer, as the strong LLJ moves over the area in advance of the cold front for later today. Have gone away from the PROB30s given the radar trends, transitions to prevailing and TEMPO groups. Rain will generally push east of all sites by or shortly after daybreak. There is a small chance of lingering showers into early afternoon which may mainly impact MKT/EAU, but will see how models address those trends in the next TAF set. Otherwise, gradually lifting of ceilings and partial clearing will be the trend through the day today with slowly veering winds. Speeds will mainly run as 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts, though some short-duration bursts of stronger winds during heavier downpours are possible as stronger winds aloft are brought to the surface. KMSP...Scattered RA/TSRA will continue to drift across the MSP terminal through the overnight hours, likely dropping conditions to MVFR but should a heavy downpour move across then IFR visibility is possible. Rain will gradually diminish going into the morning push but a few lingering showers certainly cannot be ruled out through sunrise. Late morning onward, VFR conditions will prevail will steadily rising ceilings followed by partial clearing. SE winds will prevail through the morning with speeds nearing 15G25kts, then winds will veer to SW with diminishing speeds for the afternoon-evening hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. SHRA/MVFR likely late. Wind SW 15G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Winds NW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...JPC