Welch Village Ski Area Snow Report

476 FXUS63 KMPX 300817 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A corridor of heavy rain expected along the MN River Valley in SW Minnesota, starting this evening and continuing overnight. Localized flooding possible, especially in low-lying areas. - Very nice weather this weekend, with milder temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies expected. - Smoky skies continue at times, but the chance for surface smoke impacts appears low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Today...Regional IR satellite imagery shows convection ongoing across the Dakotas and northern MN early this morning. Some showers may continue into western or central MN, though upper level forcing will taper off and allow most places to remain dry until later today. As the mid-level shortwave amplifies overhead this afternoon, surface cyclogenesis off the lee of the Rockies will be the trigger for scattered convection over a relatively broad area across the central and northern Plains. A couple thousand Joules of MUCAPE and about 35 kts of bulk wind shear may support isolated supercells or mature line segments capabale of severe winds. This would primarily be during the afternoon and evening with the initial round of storms across the Dakotas and parts of western MN. Through the evening, storms will likely become more stratiform and overspread across a larger area as the main lobe of 500mb vorticity moves through SW MN. Low-level winds also increase overnight, wrapping moisture around the low pressure center. At the same time, you have some sense of a TROWAL/fgen forcing on the northern edge of the low, almost similar to what we see with a number of our strong winter low pressure systems. "Imagine if this was all snow" is fair to bring up, but we`ll save that for another day as we have more important business to attend to. Forecasting QPF is often a very humbling thing, especially in these convective scenarios. Not everyone is going to see 4+ inches of rain, but there certainly is a good signal that some areas will. Both physical and computer based guidance have focused in the MN River Valley (roughly from Granite Falls to Mankato) as the likely corridor for pockets of the heaviest rainfall amounts. This is the area where the deepest moisture overlaps with the greatest vorticity aloft. A Flood Watch was contemplated, however, given 1) the very dry antecedent conditions, 2) the slow-moving nature of this system (rain falls over a longer period rather than training storms or a very intense MCS), and 3) the greater capacity of mature farmlands out in those areas, we felt that any flooding will likely be localized to any fast responding creeks and streams or low- lying areas. That said, always remember to Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering any flooded roadways. The amount of rainfall outside of this corridor is more uncertain and largely dependent on individual storm tracks or persistence of the stratiform rain Friday morning. Also not dissimilar to winter systems, we will likely have some influence from drier air with winds turning out of the northeast along and north of the I-94 corridor (including St Cloud and the Twin Cities metro into western WI). Although in this case, the "drier air" still has a pool of 1" PWATS. It will take a lot of bad luck for these areas to not see ANY rain, though history is certainly not on our side for the way this summer has gone. Both STC and MSP airports are staggeringly in the red for precipitation through the year so far. As of yesterday, STC`s precip departure from normal (1991-2020) is -3.72", and MSP`s is -4.35". EAU is doing a little better, but still 1.00" behind normal as well. Somewhat of an interesting evolution with the recent CAMS is that we may see additional storm development along the frontal boundary of the dry and moist airmasses Friday afternoon/evening. This may provide a better chance for rain in the areas that miss out on the heaviest amounts Thursday night and Friday morning, especially in a solution similar to the 7/29 18z run of the RRFS. This Weekend...Saturday and Sunday continue to look like great days with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s each afternoon. Next Week...Winds shift out of the south as a strong low pressure system develops across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A cold front will likely drape across the northern Plains and spark a round of storms Monday into Tuesday. A corridor of moist and unstable air will develop out ahead of the front, and if paired with enough vertical shear, could produce a zone for organized convection. The timing may end up being a limiting factor for any severe weather in the Upper MS Valley, however, as the front is currently favored to end up moving through overnight while instability decreases. Storm chances may persist into Tuesday afternoon, but invading high pressure will result in quieter weather for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Increasing mid and high level clouds Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across western MN toward the end of the period. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chance AM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind. SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Borghoff