Edmonds Lake Cross Country Ski Trails snow report

996 FXAK68 PAFC 070034 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... A North Pacific low continues to move into the western Gulf today. Southcentral remains situated between a shortwave ridge over the eastern Gulf and a broad trough extending across much of mainland Alaska. The Gulf system is maintaining a coastal ridge along the North Gulf Coast, supporting gusty gap winds through Anchorage, Palmer, and the Copper River Basin. These winds will persist through the rest of today before gradually weakening late Sunday into Monday. Across Southcentral today, the coastal ridge continues to drive gusty gap winds through the typical favored locations. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph have been observed across portions of Anchorage, with stronger gusts occurring through Turnagain Arm, Palmer, higher elevations and the Mat Valley. Meanwhile, daytime heating combined with increased moisture and weak instability has supported convective development across the eastern interior and adjacent mountain ranges. Lightning activity has already been detected just north of Paxson this afternoon, with additional isolated thunderstorms expected across the Talkeetna Mountains and portions of the Copper River Basin through the evening hours. For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, increasing cloud cover and cooler air filtering southward will keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonal norms, with highs generally in the 60s across lower elevations. Additional moisture rotating around the Gulf system will support scattered showers across the higher terrain and portions of the Susitna Valley. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight, especially over the Talkeetna Mountains and surrounding higher terrain where instability remains greatest. A few stronger cells may drift eastward into portions of the Copper River Basin. Broad troughing remains in place across Southcentral through Sunday and Monday, maintaining chances for scattered showers across much of the region. Thunderstorm potential decreases after today as instability weakens, though isolated convection over the mountains cannot be ruled out. By Monday, the upper trough begins to weaken and shift eastward, allowing shower coverage to become more isolated and primarily terrain-driven during the afternoon and evening hours. Gap winds will continue to diminish through the period, becoming noticeably lighter by Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will also begin a gradual warming trend Monday, with many lower elevation locations climbing back into the mid to upper 60s. While clouds and a few showers will remain possible, Monday is expected to be the driest and most stable day of the short-term period before the next upper-level disturbance approaches the Gulf during the middle of next week. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)... As of this afternoon, satellite imagery reveals that areas of fog and low stratus covers much of the south-central Bering and is banked up against the Central/Eastern Aleutian Chain. For the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula, however, much of the fog and low stratus has scattered out and the Bristol Bay area has warmed into the mid 60s today. Temperatures have been tricky today as a sharp gradient exists between areas of where there is fog/low stratus and where there has been clearing. Meanwhile, as a weak North Pacific low exits into the Gulf, radar returns show that a few convective showers have formed today across the interior Bristol Bay region and are generally moving west to northwest with time. Current 500 mb analysis shows a weak, yet digging trough moving over Southwest Alaska initiating these showers. A couple of isolated lightning strikes may occur this afternoon in any robust showers that are able to form, but overall confidence of that happening is low. Greater coverage of showers will be Sunday as a strong, embedded upper-level shortwave moves over Southwest Alaska. A few lightning strikes associated with this activity cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon/evening, especially along the eastern facing slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains. CAPE values are likely to be more impressive for Sunday afternoon, and mid level lapse rates are on track to be fairly strong on the eastern side of the Kuskokwim Mountains. More stable air arrives for Monday and Tuesday as a much deeper and colder upper level trough digs over Southwest Alaska. Steady rains are likely across the Southwest moving from northwest to southeast early next week. Farther out west, higher pressure will remain in control across the Bering Sea through the short-term period. The main challenge for the Aleutian Chain, Pribilof Islands, and southern Alaska Peninsula will be tracking where low stratus, mist, and fog may setup shop. -AM/DN && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... An upper level Arctic trough drops south across the Southern Mainland Monday afternoon and Tuesday, tracking northwest to southeast across Southwest and then Southcentral Alaska. A broad low will develop at the base of the trough in the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty as to where the low will end up, with some models pushing the low towards Yakutat, while the GFS stays on a western track towards the Prince William Sound through Friday. There is fair confidence for widespread light rain showers as the trough tracks across the Mainland, on Tuesday, with the chance for drier conditions on Wednesday as the trough exits to the east. Multiple additional shortwaves may produce periods of light rain showers Thursday and Friday for both Southwest and Southcentral. Comparatively cooler temperatures Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with the trough, with the chance for slightly above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. A North Pacific low looks to push south of the Alaska Peninsula late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its front moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska later on Saturday. There is still a fair amount of model discrepancies regarding exact track, however, they are is decent agreement on the Friday night/Saturday morning timeframe. This may promote a wetter weekend for portions of Southern Alaska. KM && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least tonight. Strong and gusty south to southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will persist through late Saturday night with peak gusts around 30 to 35 kts possible during the afternoon and evening hours before gradually decreasing through Sunday morning. Marine stratus may begin to work northwards up Cook Inlet Sunday morning, but chances remain very low that it will make it as far north as the PANC terminal. Increasing chances for showers near the terminal late Sunday afternoon into evening. && $$