Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails Snow Report

578 FXAK68 PAFC 010208 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 608 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)... Key Messages: - Frost Advisory is in effect overnight tonight from 2 AM to 9 AM AKDT for the Anchorage and Lower Matanuska Valley. Coldest prone locations (Butte, Muldoon, Campbell Tract, and the Eagle River Valley) could see temperatures near or below freezing. Main concern is for frost sensitive outdoor plants and vegetation. - Marine thunderstorms along the northern Gulf Coast and east of Middleton Island will taper off this evening. - Gusty offshore winds continue over the next few days with the strongest winds along the coast and through gaps and passes this afternoon and evening. Discussion: Today started out with snow in the higher elevations of the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides as a potent and cold upper- level low dug south from central Alaska, across Southcentral, and now into the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon. There were reports of around 3 inches of snow along the Eagle River Hillside this morning. The upper-level low, as mentioned, is currently over the northern Gulf. Coupled with ample amounts of instability, due to the warmer water temperatures, relatively, and the cold air associated with the system, copious amounts of lightning have developed across the northern Gulf this morning and afternoon. Most of the marine thunderstorm activity is east of Middleton Island and on both side of Kayak Island. Overall, this activity is moving southeast and will taper off through this evening as instability lessens and it moves over the open waters of the central Gulf. As precipitation moves from along the Northern Gulf Coast to fully over the Gulf by tonight, showers will persist across northeastern portions of the Copper River Basin through Tuesday morning. Aside from termination dust this morning and marine thunderstorms this morning and afternoon, temperatures are expected to drop tonight as dry air from the northwest works in across Southcentral. A Frost Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM AKDT for the Anchorage Bowl and the Lower Matanuska Valley. Temperatures could fall as low as the upper 20s in typically colder locations, with frost capable of occurring. Other portions of Southcentral, including the lower Susitna Valley and western Kenai Peninsula, will also have the potential for near-freezing temperatures and patchy frost Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will remain chilly as well. However, frost potential will depend on cloud cover. If conditions stay more on the clear side, the airmass looks to be very similar to tonight/early Tuesday morning with more frost potential. If there are more clouds present, this will prevent radiational cooling from fully taking effect and thus lower frost potential. Gap winds through Whittier and Seward will remain elevated through the next few days as flow will remain out of the northwest. Gusts may relent somewhat Tuesday afternoon near Seward as ridging builds across the area. The sea breeze from the south may also come in briefly Tuesday afternoon before the northerly offshore winds re-ensue Tuesday evening. For Wednesday, a shortwave digs south from Central Alaska to over northeastern portions of the Copper River Basin. This feature will be pretty moisture starved, but a few showers are not out of the question for Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper-level ridge builds in for Thursday as all of Southcentral remains dry. The next weather system to watch will come from the Bering on Friday and for the weekend as the pattern will switch from dry to wet by then. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... A vertically stacked ridge remains in place over the North Pacific, Aleutian Chain and southern Bering. A shield of clouds can been seen streaming across the Western Aleutians and Bering as a series of low pressure systems ride around the ridge and move along a front situated from the Pribilof Islands to Shemya. Rainfall associated with the current Bering system is on track to move east of the Pribilof Islands tonight, with the edge of its precipitation shield clipping the southern most Southwest Alaska coast and Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday morning. Weak impulses of energy aloft will also be riding atop the upper ridge through the short term period, keeping the Bering and Aleutians unsettled. Conditions will remain relatively steady state until mid Tuesday morning where an incoming area of low pressure to the Western Aleutians amplifies the upper level flow and tightens the pressure gradient at the surface between the surface low and ridging anchored to the east. With this, high end gales and blips of storms are showing up in the boundary layer of both the GFS and the NAM, which suggest surface winds will most likely reach at least low end gale force with higher gusts with the front Tuesday morning for the Central Aleutians. At the surface, the incoming front also puts a dent in the ridge and nudges it farther south through Tuesday afternoon. While the parent area of low pressure does not move much past the Western Aleutians, its front, with help from the ridge, will funnel tropical moisture along the boundary and will create an axis of moderate rainfall that will traverse the Aleutian Chain. Looking at 500 mb heights and vorticity, the models depict a "kicker" shortwave rotating around the main closed low Thursday, which will essentially force it to gain momentum and move farther eastward over the Bering through Thursday morning (and increase winds underneath the forcing). Rainfall then approaches Southwest Alaska by Thursday afternoon. -AM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The long-term period looks to remain active, especially across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutian Chain. With a ridge axis anchored over Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska, and a complex low pressure system spinning about in the central Bering Sea, Southwest Alaska appears to be the more active of the areas. Across Southcentral Alaska, the ridge will be overhead for much of Friday with relatively quiet weather anticipated. The ridge moves east to the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into Yukon, Canada Friday evening which will open the door to southwest flow aloft. Steady rain from Southwest will move into Southcentral through late Friday as a plethora of shortwaves lift up and over the area from North Pacific and Gulf. Showers continue over Southwest, the Aleutian Chain, and Southcentral for Saturday as a broad upper- level trough remains in the Bering and southwest flow aloft remains across Southcentral. A series of several shortwaves spinning around the complex low in the Bering will move from the Bering into Southwest Alaska Friday and Saturday. By late Saturday, a compact low entering from the northern Gulf will enter the southeastern Bering Sea with the chance to swing into Southwest Alaska. Model agreement is poor regarding the progression of this feature, however it may bring a more condensed push of rainfall into the area. Also, depending on the orientation of the southwest winds into Southwest Alaska, coastal concerns in the Kuskokwim Delta remain present as a possibility, but we will continue to monitor it`s progress. -CL && .AVIATION... PANC...Generally expect a drying trend with clearing skies throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, there remains a small chance (30 percent) that a brief shower may occur over the terminal through early evening. Any lingering shower activity should be out of the area by late this evening. Northerly winds will continue through tonight with gusts up to 25 kt likely through late this evening. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will improve to VFR as the shower activity winds down this evening. && $$