Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails Snow Report

311 FXAK68 PAFC 030248 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 548 PM AKST Mon Nov 2 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... An active weather pattern continues through the forecast period. Showers will continue for Prince William Sound from a weakening Gulf low will move inland through the overnight hours and finally dissipate by morning. Inclement weather follows directly after a strong front, set to arrive before sunrise on Tuesday. Steady rain will spread north to the coastline of Southcentral as easterly flow and moisture transport ahead of the front, mainly across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. A new low develops at the frontal triple point, then moves quickly northeast towards Kodiak Island Tuesday evening, helping to enhance the front near and northeast of the low while also pulling it north closer to the coast. A barrier jet will form along the front as it approaches the coast, resulting in a corridor of storm force winds along the northern Gulf coast, south of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. The formation of the barrier jet is expected slightly earlier in the day. Easterly winds and rain will also intensify north of the front along the coast. Meanwhile, strong cross- barrier flow will keep most areas in the lee of the mountains dry, including most of the western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat- Su. By early Wednesday, the low will pivot into the northern AK Peninsula and quickly begin to dissipate, while the front extending into the northern Gulf also rapidly moves into the coast and begins to shear apart over the terrain of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Multiple upper level impulses rotating north out of the Gulf in addition to forcing along the decaying front could help pull shower activity a bit farther inland through the day on Wednesday, especially in and around the Cook Inlet region. The active marine pattern looks to continue into the latter half of the week, with another strong low approaching the southern Gulf by late Wednesday night. Probabilistic models are beginning to show signs of a strong low producing storm force winds later in the week. Stay tuned for updates! -SS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)... Current satellite imagery this afternoon shows a 960 mb low situated between Adak and Atka beginning to weaken as it becomes vertically stacked. Cold air wraps around the back side of the low, creating instability and resulting in a slight chance for some isolated lightning strikes along the Pacific side of the Aleutians tonight. Its front has reached the Southwest mainland, bringing widespread stratiform showers stretching from the southern AK Peninsula up past Toksook Bay. Precipitation will fall as rain for lower elevation areas as warm air filters in from the southeast, with any snowfall confined to areas above 2,000 ft. A triple point low has formed to the south of the AKPen earlier today and is crossing into the eastern Bering this afternoon, enhancing precipitation and gale-force southeasterly winds along the coast. As this feature lifts through tonight, expect the gusty winds and more widespread showers to diminish by tomorrow morning. Moving west, another low remains nearly stationary over the central/western Bering as it separates from the upper-level jet to its south. This will keep conditions showery through the Bering and Aleutians as various shortwaves round the low through the short-term period. Cold air streams in from eastern Russia behind this system, helping maintain an elongated fetch of small-craft to gale-force winds across the southern flank of the low. Temperatures begin to drop near-freezing across the western Aleutians tomorrow night, allowing some light snow to mix into showers from Shemya to Atka by Wednesday morning. A strong ridge begins to form over Kamchatka on Thursday. This increases the pressure gradient across the western Bering, funneling a core of strong westerly winds across the western Aleutians. Showers also become more widespread as yet another shortwave trough sweeps through the Western Bering. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay will remain showery through most of the short-term period as additional shortwaves from the eastern Bering move over the area. Temperatures gradually cool over Southwest through Thursday, though precipitation should remain mostly as rain for low elevation areas. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... There is a high likelihood that a broad trough extending over both the Bering and Gulf of Alaska will consolidate over the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska later this weekend. High pressure has persisted over much of mainland Alaska and this should continue if not strengthen through the long term forecast period, helping to keep inland conditions on the dry and cooler side. Offshore, northerly flow should become increasingly common across the Bering as a result of the shift in the trough`s axis over the Gulf of Alaska. The net effect being a higher chance for convective showers over the Bering along with northerly gap winds through the Aleutians. Over the Gulf of Alaska, one area of low pressure and its front will be on the decline as they push into the Southeast Alaska coast. A second area of low pressure will be lifting northward from the North Pacific late in the period (Sun), but models are in moderate agreement that this area of low pressure will remain mostly confined to the eastern Gulf. The exception being along the coast from just east of Prince William Sound to just east of the Copper River Delta on Sunday where scattered shower chances will be higher. -BL && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to persist through Tuesday evening. While northerly surface winds will also persist through the period, winds aloft will become southeast and strengthen to around 25 to 35 kts this evening, increasing the potential for low level wind shear tonight through Tuesday afternoon. && $$