Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails snow report

527 FXAK68 PAFC 080048 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 448 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... Clouds continue to stream northward across the Gulf this afternoon as a weak low in the southern Gulf continues to drift eastward into the Southern Panhandle. Bands of light rain are moving through Prince William Sound and portions of the Kenai Peninsula, with some precipitation attempting to spill west of the mountains into Cook Inlet. However, we still have relatively dry air that remains in place across much of Southcentral, this will be limiting rainfall amounts and allowing many inland locations to stay dry. Meanwhile, gap wins remain elevated through the usual terrain- favored locations, though speeds have generally begun a gradual downward trend compared to yesterday. Through the rest of today, weak ridging extending westward from the Yukon and British Columbia will continue to maintain generally quiet weather across much of the region. Cloud cover will remain most persistent near the coast and across the Gulf-facing slopes, while interior valleys see a mix of clouds and occasional breaks in sunshine. Tomorrow, the Gulf low shifts farther east while the ridge weakens and begins to lose influence across Southcentral. As the pressure gradient finally relaxes, gap winds through Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and other favored locations are expected to continue diminish through the day. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer, though widespread cloud cover will likely keep most locations from reaching the warmer temperatures seen last week. Farther east, modest instability developing during the afternoon and evening may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the Copper River Basin, particularly near Gulkana, Paxson and surrounding higher terrain. Attention turns to Tuesday as a stronger upper-level trough and associated surface front push eastward across the Alaska Range. Increasing lift ahead of the trough will allow a band of rain to develop and spread into the Susitna Valley, Anchorage Bowl, and western Kenai Peninsula during the day. Confidence is high that many locations will see measurable rainfall, with the highest chances occurring from the morning through late afternoon. Rainfall amounts do not appear especially heavy at this time, but Tuesday is shaping up to be the wettest day of the forecast period for much of Southcentral. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)... Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system continuing to spin in the southern Gulf of Alaska with a transient and weak upper-level ridge over the southwest interior. A shortwave trough is digging southward across Western Alaska this morning as the base of this trough makes it over Southwest Alaska through today. This feature, combined with weak waves rotating around the Gulf low, will help to kick off another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best chances for isolated thunderstorms to develop will be along the eastern slopes of the Kuskokwim, Kilbuck, and Ahklun Mountains, as well as along the Western Alaska Range. Rain will continue overnight tonight along the Western Alaska Range and upper Aleutian Range as the atmosphere stabilizes from this afternoon and evening`s convection. Beginning Monday, a secondary trough, stronger than today`s, will dig southward over Southwest Alaska. An attendant cold front, also moving south with the trough, will deliver another round of rain mostly to the southwestern interior. The airmass accompanying this feature is relatively cold, and temperatures across the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range will struggle to get much higher than 60 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This relatively cooler air at the surface, in conjunction with cloud cover, should hinder thunderstorm formation both Monday and Tuesday. The front weakens by Tuesday morning as light showers make it to Iliamna by then. Rain tapers off by Tuesday afternoon across Mainland Southwest with a quiet and dry day expected for Wednesday. Farther out west, flow remains out of the north across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain due to the low in the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure centered just south of Kamchatka. The result of this pattern continues to be low stratus, fog, and misty conditions across much of the Bering, including the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula, the Pribilof Islands, and along the Aleutian Chain. Expect the core of the high pressure ridge to begin moving eastward Monday. The ridge will move over Shemya by Monday afternoon and across Adak/Atka by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The challenge with the movement of this ridge is tracking any fog development underneath it. There are indications that this ridge will continue moving east through the day Wednesday and Thursday, which could open the door for more in the way of unsettled weather in the form of a North Pacific low to send its front into the western Bering and Western Aleutians late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be something to watch down the road. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... An upper-level trough continues to dig southeast from the Northwest Arctic coast across western Alaska. By late Thursday, this feature begins to suppress the weakening upper-level ridge over the central interior, bifurcating the ridge with one lobe retreating to the eastern Gulf and the second lobe lifting north over the eastern Bering. At the surface, a cold front attached to a low over the North Slope tries to move over the Alaska Range, but weakens, stalls, then eventually lifts toward the Yukon by late Friday. Meanwhile, a surface low in the northern Gulf opens into a surface trough for Thursday with showers lingering across the coastal mountains. Some moisture may get pulled over the mountains, a result of the increasing southerly flow out ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough. By Friday, there is some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will linger across the far eastern portions of Southcentral as both the upper-level ridge and surface coastal ridge begin to build back over the Southern Mainland in response to the departing shortwave. The extension of the upper-level ridge across the Southern Mainland will be brief in duration as an upper-level low and strengthening North Pacific low both track north toward Kodiak Island and the AKPen through Friday. Although the main surface low occludes Saturday as it moves toward the Aleutians, its surface front looks to stall somewhere between Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Multiple shortwaves riding along the frontal boundary will advect moisture northward and across coastal Southcentral for Saturday. Right now, it appears that a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the front south of the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning. This low then looks to move northwest allowing for the development of a more east-southeasterly flow aloft out ahead of it, driving the bulk of the moisture back toward Kodiak Island and the AKPen, at least temporarily, by late Sunday. There are some GFS and EC forecast/ensemble members indicating the potential for a weak atmospheric river event anywhere from Prince William Sound to Kodiak Island with this system. So stay tuned for forecast updates. Farther west, the western half of the Aleutians will continue to see showers from the initial, and now decaying, North Pacific low. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with ceilings expected to remain about 5 kft and visibility remaining VFR. Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm will remain gusty into the evening hours with gusts of 25 to 30 kt then gradually decreasing through Monday morning. While chances are low, a few showers might make it over the Chugach mountains allowing for a few sprinkles. && $$