Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails Snow Report

598 FXAK68 PAFC 110018 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 418 PM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday)... Key Messages: - The Heat Advisory for the Lower Mat Valley including Wasilla, Palmer, and Big Lake has ended, with marginally cooler temperatures returning to the Mat Valley through Tuesday. - Warm temperatures continue today before cooler conditions arrive Tuesday. A warming trend then develops Wednesday and continues into Thursday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across Southcentral Discussion: Satellite imagery shows areas of marine fog and low stratus across portions of Cook Inlet and adjacent coastal areas, with high clouds also moving across portions of Southcentral. High temperatures will gradually reach the 60s along the coast and the 70s farther inland. Afternoon and evening showers will remain largely confined to higher terrain as weak shortwave energy moves southward from the Interior. While thunderstorm potential remains low, an isolated lightning strike or two can not be ruled out across the Copper River Basin and portions of the Southcentral Interior. Otherwise, stable conditions along the coast and in the valleys will favor mostly dry weather. On Tuesday, the upper-level ridge shifts father west as weak shortwave energy moves across Southcentral. Low-level flow will become more southerly, allowing a stronger push of marine air into Cook Inlet and adjacent areas. Marine fog and low stratus may extend inland during the morning, particularly across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and portions of the Mat-Su Valleys. By Wednesday, shortwave energy becomes more diffuse as upper- level heights begin to rise across Southcentral. Southerly low- level flow may continue to support areas of morning marine fog and low stratus around Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula. However, clouds should gradually diminish through the day, with increasing sunshine and rising heights allowing temperatures to rebound from Tuesday`s cooler readings. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low approaching the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island will increase precipitation chances and breezier conditions around Kodiak Island. The warming trend continues Thursday as upper-level ridging becomes more established across Southcentral while the more active trough and North Pacific low remain primarily to the southwest. Rising heights and increasing sunshine will support another increase in temperatures, especially across inland locations. Coastal areas may remain somewhat cooler where marine influence persists, with additional overnight and morning fog or low stratus possible near Cook Inlet. Moisture associated with the North Pacific system may approach the southern Kenai Peninsula, but the building ridge should limit its northward progression, keeping most of Southcentral dry through Thursday. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)... Low stratus from last night and early this morning continues to erode this afternoon across Southwest Alaska. Looking at satellite imagery, there is a mesoscale shortwave lifting over the Kuskokwim Delta with a trailing shortwave behind it over Bristol Bay. These two features are moving around the western periphery of the upper-level ridge that is situated over the interior. With low stratus continuing to erode along the Kilbuck/Kuskokwim Mountains and instability beginning to build with afternoon heating, showers are likely (60% chance) to fire up along those mountain ranges. Some short-range hi-res guidance depict a few stronger and more robust showers developing by early evening. Any lightning that occurs with these showers should remain mostly confined to the mountain ranges (Kilbuck/Kuskokwim Mountains). Tuesday will feature a better day for instability to build and warmer temperatures across Southwest. For high temperatures Tuesday, expect low to middle 70s inland with 60s along the coast. In conjunction with afternoon heating on Tuesday, another shortwave will lift over the Southwestern Mainland and will help to kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms. The Kilbuck and Kuskokwim Mountains will have the best shot for lightning with this round as well. Some of these showers and storms may also advect off the terrain and to in and around the Bethel area with southerly to south-southeasterly steering flow. However, instability could be strong enough in the valleys of Interior Bristol Bay (Koliganek/New Stuyahok) for some showers and isolated storms to form (30% chance). Lightning activity will taper off during the evening hours as heating is lost and with the days becoming shorter. For Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will re-orient in a north- south fashion and be placed over the eastern Copper River Basin of Southcentral Alaska. This will allow for southerly flow to be introduced across Southwest. The airmass advecting in from the North Pacific will be cooler and more stable. Therefore, any showers that occur Wednesday afternoon will have little to no lightning threat (less than 10% chance of lightning). Farther to the west, a weak surface low currently moving off of the Kamchatka Peninsula will make its way into the western Bering Sea by Tuesday morning. Winds associated with this low will remain small-craft with some gale-force southeasterly gusts along the Western and Central Aleutians. This low will also spread rain from the Western Aleutians to the Central Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday. Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan will see scattered showers Wednesday and less in the way of steady rain like the Western and Central Aleutians due to surface high pressure lingering in the eastern Bering. A North Pacific low looks to send its front northward into the Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through Wednesday. Coupled with southerly to southeasterly flow aloft, rain will be enhanced at times for locations such as Chignik and Perryville. Rain will be more showery and scattered for the Bering side of the AKPEN due to the downslope southerly to southeasterly flow. Rain from this system makes it into Mainland Southwest (Bristol Bay/Kuskokwim Delta) by early Wednesday evening. Rain continues for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta through much of Thursday before slowly tapering off to scattered showers Thursday evening. Showers will continue across the Pacific side of the AKPEN with southerly to southeasterly flow persisting through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon and evening Upper-level energy from Kamchatka and Siberia move into the Bering and consolidate which will form a new Bering low in the west-central Bering with showers and low stratus likely for the Pribilofs by then. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The general pattern starting Friday will have an upper level low reside over the central Bering with a ridge over Mainland Alaska. A surface front lingering from Southwest Alaska to the Gulf may maintain some showers through the day across the Bristol Bay coast to areas along the northern Gulf Coast. Kodiak Island and the Pacific side of the AKPen will also see rainfall continue with upsloping winds. Most of Southcentral and parts of Southwest, especially north of the Cook Inlet/Chugach Mountains, and the Kuskokwim Valley will be warm and dry Friday. Out west, a surface low occludes in the western Bering on Friday, maintaining scattered showers and up to small craft winds for much of the Bering. By Saturday, the upper low begins to move to the eastern Bering and makes an attempt to push the ridge northeastward into the Interior/Yukon down through the Alaska Panhandle. Temperatures across the region will begin to cool as cloud coverage increases from west to east. Temperatures in the Copper River Basin will still be warm Saturday with the ridge still overhead keeping clouds away. A surface low from the North Pacific will move through the Aleutians/AKPen into Southwest Alaska Saturday and Sunday. This will be conducive for rainfall throughout the weekend, which may be heavy at times. There are model differences with both the strength of the low and whether the low takes a more northerly track through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast or a southerly track starting south of the AKPen before moving into Bristol Bay. Depending on the strength and track, southeast winds through particular gaps and bays like Cold Bay could also be strong Saturday through Sunday. Either way, this low also looks to send a front into the Gulf Saturday evening through Sunday. This will likely also promote rainfall (possibly heavy) and potentially strong winds for Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula. As the front continues northward on Sunday, precipitation looks to spill over into the rest of Southcentral and Southwest and linger into Monday. Details about this weekends system will become more clear in the coming days. -PA && .AVIATION... PANC...While the marine layer has burned away for this afternoon, lower ceilings and areas of fog will likely return later tonight. Visibilities could decline as early as about 08Z tonight, though confidence is lower with the likelihood and timing of fog. Confidence is higher that low clouds will move up Cook Inlet and over the terminal by around 12-15Z early tomorrow morning, dropping ceilings to low MVFR for much of the morning. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the TAF period. && $$