Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails snow report

297 FXAK68 PAFC 172350 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 PM AKDT Sun May 17 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Active weather continues across Southcentral Alaska as multiple waves and fronts move through the region. Rain showers will continue across the coast through Wednesday as the fronts arrive and push onshore. Inland areas including Anchorage, the Mat-Su, Western Kenai will experience downslope drying due to elevated easterly winds. However, it is possible that light rain showers could still develop due to ample instability and moisture. The Copper River Basin is expected to remain mostly dry. Gap winds such as the Turnagain wind, the Knik wind, and the Copper River wind are expected through Tuesday as a coastal ridge sets up over the Chugach Range. The Turnagain wind is expected to bend into Southern Anchorage due to lower pressure out west. A low will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. The low will trigger gusty gap winds and moderate precipitation around Kodiak Island Monday night into Tuesday. The low will track just south of Prince William Sound by Wednesday. Though this will allow for gusty easterly winds off the coast of Cordova, it will break down the coastal ridge over the Chugach Range and allow for winds to calm down for inland areas. The wet and showery pattern looks to continue through the work week as more shortwaves move into Southcentral Alaska. -JAR && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A broad, vertically stacked low remains over the Bering this afternoon, situated a couple hundred nautical miles west of the Pribilof Islands. Its surface front, occluded and weakening, continues to slowly push across interior Southwest Alaska with low clouds and rain across the Kuskokwim Valley. Multiple shortwaves are rotating around this low as colder air aloft moves west to east across the Aleutian Chain, resulting in increased instability and areas of showers. The first of these waves is moving across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, with rain showers and gusty southwesterly winds from east of Cold Bay to King Salmon and coastal Bristol Bay. This feature, like the occluded front, will lift into interior Southwest Alaska through Monday morning with another round of showers for the Kuskokwim Valley. Patchy fog may linger along the immediate coast in the wake of the trough. A second shortwave will will then track across the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska on Monday with a deepening compact surface low lifting from south of Cold Bay Monday afternoon to south of Togiak late Monday night. Gusty southeasterly winds and rain will be on the increase with this system, with the strongest winds out of the Kamishak Gap and across the Kuskokwim Valley late in the day. Gale-force winds will wrap around the low over the coastal waters. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next deepening upper low moves into the Aleutians with a front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday evening. While the current low over the Bering is weakening, general troughing will continue to bring multiple disturbances across the Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska on an almost daily basis. Long term model guidance shows little to no change in the overall pattern, with unsettled weather and rain chances persisting into the latter half of next week. -TM/BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf will remain in place through the middle of next week. This will continue to support unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska. By midweek, the focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka and track eastward. Model guidance is now in better agreement, bringing the low across the Aleutian Chain before continuing into the Gulf of Alaska, remaining south of the mainland. Unsettled conditions will persist across the Aleutians as this system and its associated front progress eastward through the end of the week. LM && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong southeasterly winds are expected continue past midnight, though the winds will not be as strong as yesterday. These gusty southeasterly winds will then redevelop again Monday late morning and persist into the evening. && $$