Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails Snow Report

228 FXAK68 PAFC 120043 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKDT Sun Oct 11 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Tuesday)... An active upper-level pattern remains in place across Southcentral Alaska through the beginning of the workweek as a broad trough and embedded shortwaves continue to influence the region. Model guidance generally agrees on the overall pattern, though differences remain in the timing and placement of individual disturbances. For the rest of today into Monday, upper-level energy moving across southern Alaska will maintain chances for precipitation across portions of Southcentral, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast, Prince William Sound, and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Rain is favored at lower elevations, with snow possible across higher terrain and mountain passes. Farther inland, including Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin, precipitation is expected to be more scattered. Heading into Monday night and Tuesday, additional shortwave energy rotating through the broader trough will maintain unsettled pattern. Coastal areas will remain favored for precipitation, while inland locations may see periods of drier weather between disturbances. Attention then turns toward the middle of the week as model guidance indicates a potentially stronger system developing and approaching southern Alaska. While there is general agreement that additional upper-level energy will influence the region, differences remain in the strength, timing, and eventual track of the system. These differences will be important in determining the potential for stronger winds and heavier precipitation across Southcentral later in the week. Just outside the forecast period, Wednesday through Friday, the potential exists for a more organized storm system to impact portions of Southcentral and the northern Gulf Coast. Depending on the eventual track and strength of the low, impacts could include gusty winds, periods of heavier precipitation, and snow across higher elevations. However, uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the track, timing, and strength of the system. -LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The large, occluded Bering low continues to spin to the south of Saint Lawrence Island this afternoon where it will remain nearly stationary as it weakens and dissipates through early this week. In the wake of the low, pockets of northwesterly to westerly small craft winds across the southern Bering Sea dissipate through Monday morning. Similarly, the convective showery regime lingers across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday. The pattern begins to progress through the first half of this week with the eventual breakdown of the stagnant troughing as a much more robust shortwave reaches the Western Aleutians Monday afternoon. As this shortwave drives south, north-northwesterly winds will reinvigorate across the western Bering and Aleutians from approximately Shemya to Adak Monday night through Tuesday. There is high confidence (80 to 90 percent) in high-end small craft winds, with a smaller chance (10 to 20 percent) for periods of sustained gales. By late Tuesday, ridging begins to nudge into the western Bering as the shortwave further amplifies in the North Pacific and merges with a weak wave originating from the south of Kamchatka. The resulting low pressure system south of the Alaska Peninsula deepens by late Tuesday into Wednesday as it pivots north. The primary forecast challenge continues to be the track of this low and how close it comes in proximity to the Alaska Peninsula. Regardless of the precise storm track, confidence continues to increase for the gale-force front to reach the coastal waters to the south of the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, Southwest Alaska slowly trends cooler through the end of the short term, with overnight lows dropping to near or below freezing Tuesday and Wednesday morning area wide as both cloud cover and precipitation chances decrease. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The long term forecast starts off on Thursday with a strong low south of the Alaska Peninsula tracking towards the Gulf of Alaska. Strong northerly gap winds persist over the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the island starting Thursday morning. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and strength of the low, which are still uncertain. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Much uncertainty is present on Saturday regarding the location of the low in the Gulf. If it remains closer to the coast, rain and higher elevation snow is likely, but if it moves east, drier conditions will prevail. On Sunday, a frontal system of some kind moves into the Bering, which will lead to rain and elevated winds potentially in the Shemya and Adak areas. Southcentral is too uncertain to get a clear picture on Sunday for now. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC... Periods of rain showers will persist into Monday, but there should be an overall tapering off in frequency of the showers. Ceilings will likely be predominantly MVFR through tomorrow morning, with improvements to VFR (below 5000 ft) between rounds of rain showers. Winds should remain south to southeast into Monday with gusts to around 15 kt through this evening. && $$