Mirror Lake Coyote Ski Trails Snow Report

163 FXAK68 PAFC 200034 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)... A high amplitude trough is centered along the west coast of mainland Alaska and southward well down into the Pacific (around 40N latitude), with a corresponding high amplitude downstream ridge over Southeast AK and the Yukon. In between is an atmospheric river supported by a 100+ kt meridional jet streak. A narrow band of moderate to heavy rain has been sitting over the same areas for the first half of today, from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Susitna Valley. A short-wave moving through the base of the trough is now causing the trough to become slowly take on a negative tilt. As a result, low level southeast flow is increasing across the Kenai Peninsula leading to an expanding downslope hole across the interior western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley. Rain has ended across most of Anchorage (as of 2pm), lingering over far western Anchorage. After rapid rises along Campbell and Chester Creeks, water levels are now quickly falling. meanwhile, rainfall rates have picked up for much of coastal Kenai Peninsula on up to the western to central Susitna Valley (including the Parks Highway corridor). A Flood Warning is in effect for Seward until 10am Tuesday for urban and river/stream flooding and a Flood Advisory is in effect for the Yentna River for minor flooding of low lying areas along the river. Warmer and drier conditions are being observed in the Copper River Basin, with partly sunny skies. Lastly, elevated winds and waves can be found ahead of a surface front from the northern Gulf coastal waters into Prince William Sound, with southeasterly gap winds extending inland. The upper level trough will continue to become more negatively tilted tonight while slowly progressing northeastward. Heavy rain across the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley will shift back north and east overnight tonight through Monday. In addition to the aforementioned areas where flooding is expected, other areas to closely watch for potential minor flooding include the southwestern Kenai (Anchor River), other rivers and streams in the Susitna Valley, and Anchorage (for urban flooding as rain spreads back in on Monday). The upper trough will weaken as it continues north and east Monday night through Tuesday. The upper jet (and atmospheric river) will also weaken with time. As a result, expect a narrow band of much lighter rain to spread across the the Copper River Basin Monday night through Tuesday morning. There will be a brief break in rainfall behind the upper trough (24 hours or less) before the next storm approaches from the Bering Sea in continued progressive flow aloft. Rain will reach Kodiak Island Monday night, then overspread much of Southcentral on Tuesday. The upper trough will move through very quickly, so this will be a glancing blow of rain, with the system exiting to the north and east on Wednesday morning. Models have been waffling with the track of the next low across the Bering Sea, but the latest guidance seems to be locking into a similar track. Based on this, expect another round of rain Wednesday night through Thursday. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A Bristol Bay low will move northward up the Mainland coast continuing today`s southerly and easterly winds and rain showers over Southwest Alaska through tomorrow evening. Another low moves across the Aleutians early this week with a ridge and more zonal flow behind it. Twelve hour rainfall amounts as of 4:00pm today are a few hundredths of an inch over the region with wind gusts during this time ranging 20 to 30 knots in Southwest Alaska as a low moves up the coast then inland. As this low moves inland this evening, more widespread rain is expected over the Kuskokwim Delta through tomorrow. Short-lived, weak ridging diminishes these rain showers for the Mainland and the AK Pen late Monday afternoon / evening. Another round of rain arrives Tuesday. A band of thunderstorms associated with a separate low will continue to move through the far western Bering Sea into this evening. This separate low pressure system moves out of Russia and into the Bering Sea today through Tuesday bringing more widespread rain and strong winds to the region. This separate low moving through the Bering Sea reaches the Pribilof Islands Tuesday morning then moves in a more easterly direction towards the Mainland into Tuesday evening. This brings rain showers and southerly to southwesterly winds into the Pribilofs, Eastern Aleutians, AK Pen and the Mainland through Wednesday. The strong southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots bringing wave heights to 8 feet along the Bristol Bay coastline during this time. Also, this will coincide with a core of moderate to heavy precipitation moves through the area from south of the Pribilofs to the Eastern Aleutians / AK Pen and the Mainland. Zonal to southwest flow dominates in the Western Bering Sea mid- week with warm tropical air bringing shortwave energy and a resurgence of rain across the region. - JOHNSTON && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... A pattern change is in the works during the long term period next week. An upper low and front will be progressing through interior Alaska on Thursday. Behind this feature forecast models are in somewhat good agreement with the development of a building ridge of high pressure over the southern Bering on Friday. The ridge amplifies further over the weekend. For Southcentral, northerly flow behind the departing upper low and trough will bring in drier conditions and a potential break from persistent rain chances over the state. High pressure over the Bering will favor drier conditions as well. The one caveat will be the potential for smaller shortwave disturbances to ride over the top of the ridge and into Southwest Alaska with renewed rain chances on Sunday. -BL && .AVIATION... PANC...Steady rain will temporarily let up this evening, but will return during the late overnight and intensify through Monday morning. A period of winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm is possible, likely sometime between 4z and 12z tonight, though confidence for timing and exact magnitude for any period of gustier winds remains low. LLWS will remain possible until winds at the surface turn out of the southeast later this evening. Generally VFR conditions will prevail until rain intensity picks up early Monday morning, likely pushing ceilings and visibility down into MVFR range. && $$