Frost Fire Ski And Snow Board snow report

631 FXUS63 KFGF 040437 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1137 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms in the southern Red River Valley into lakes country of west- central and north-central Minnesota. The main hazards will be hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 55 mph. - Fourth of July afternoon holds medium chance for widely scattered thunderstorms. Main hazard is lightning, with very low chance of storms being severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...Synopsis... Broad, weak upper troughing in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains will provide transient forcing aloft, while also keeping sufficient moisture and instability for thunderstorm chances this and tomorrow afternoons into early evenings. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered given lackluster forcing overall. A few storms may be strong to severe, mainly in Minnesota, this afternoon. While there is medium chance for storms Fourth of July afternoon/early evening, strong to severe storms are not anticipated at this time - mainly due to lack of shear and better forcing. Into next week, this upper troughing flattens with the approach of an upper jet into the Pacific Northwest, concurrent with upper ridging attempting to build in the Southwest by late next week. This places the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest toward the northern periphery of the eventual upper ridging. This pattern shift starts with a cold front to move through the region Monday, offering perhaps more widespread coverage of showers and storms. This includes potential for storms to be strong to perhaps severe, although more likely to be on the lower end-severe if at all. Embedded impulses of energy moving through the flow mid to late next week will offer almost daily opportunities for showers and storms, although uncertainty exists in moisture availability for thunderstorms behind Monday`s cold front. This is also nearing the end of the predictability horizon with respect to thunderstorm details. ...Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon... SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook lowered coverage of the level 1 of 5 risk area, confined now to portions of north-central, west- central MN, and southern Red River Valley. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible within this area, capable of small hail up to 1 inch and gusts to 40-55 mph. Warm low level and slightly above average overall moisture availability may allow for brief heavy rain, potentially leading to isolated minor flooding - especially if this occurs over urban area (e.g. Bemidji). This area generally holds today`s thunderstorm chances with help from low level convergence concurrent with weak, transient mid level wave moving northeast out of SD. With overall instability will be on the weak to moderate side and little if any shear to organize storms, storms are expected to follow the mean flow toward the east-northeast, with tendency to also propagate toward their outflow boundaries. Additionally, expecting storms to behave in a pulse-like fashion. ...Fourth of July... Weak to perhaps moderate instability still should remain across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones. With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so minor flooding couldn`t be ruled out, especially if this occurs over urban landscapes. Overall this carries very low predictability. There is currently a 40% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered. Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear and lack of better forcing. Heat impacts are not expected with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and generally partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping sun-related impacts low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The best chance for MVFR conditions due to developing stratus or light fog should be at KDVL and KBJI in the 10-14Z period Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds under 10kt should prevail. There are low chances (20% or less) for showers or thunderstorms to develop with the best chances Saturday afternoon in northwest MN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...DJR