Frost Fire Ski And Snow Board Snow Report

607 FXUS63 KFGF 150413 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1113 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms into Saturday. The probability for severe storms is very low. - There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week. Potential exists for strong to severe storms. && UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Scattered showers ongoing mainly along and north of Highway 2, but more activity starting to move into the upper Sheyenne basin from central ND. Amounts so far have been pretty light, except for a few spots in Benson county that have received around a tenth so far. Additional showers will continue into the overnight, and amounts up to a quarter inch in some places look to be still on the table. Lack of instability has kept lightning activity at bay so far. Made some tweaks to POPs for current radar trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Low pressure across the western Dakotas will slowly propagate east/northeast over the next day or so, along with showers ahead of this system. As the system evolves the upper ridge will flatten becoming more zonal and eventually northwest flow aloft through the period. Confidence is relatively high for this large scale pattern to evolve given general agreement among ensemble members/systems. Temperatures through the period will be near or even slightly below normal. ..Showers/Storms into Saturday... The strongest forcing and heaviest (most widespread) rainfall will be along and north of the surface low track. Generally speaking, the track will be west to east along the International border. Although scenarios are not too widespread, there still remains minor differences from ensemble member to ensemble member regarding the track of the surface low, and a bit further south track would bring an inch or two of rainfall to the northern parts of our region. Instability very weak to nill, and do not expect much for impacts other than whatever impacts a wetting rain may bring. To the south of the surface low track coverage will be more spotty. ...Severe Potential Early Next Week... As another stronger wave propagates through Canada greater instability will advect into the region, ahead of a cold front. Multiple scenarios exist regarding how this will evolve, including strength and timing differences, which will ultimately decide on storm coverage and intensity - severe potential. ML/AI guidance indicate a signal for severe storms Monday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Scattered showers affecting the more northerly TAF sites, so have prevailing or VCSH in those areas and kept KFAR and KBJI with Prob30 for some possible activity later tonight. Ceilings are all VFR so far, but should see some MVFR ceilings come in behind the rain later tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of the models have some IFR ceilings at times, and from obs further west it is not completely out of the question. For now just have KDVL going to IFR but will take another look at the 06Z issuance. Winds that are easterly around 10 to 15 kts will shift around to the southeast, then southwest and then northwest by the end of the period. Speeds will be mainly in the 10 to 15 kt range but some gusts up to 25 kts are possible from the northwest at the ND airports tomorrow afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...JR