Windsor Park Nordic Centre Snow Report

213 FXUS63 KFGF 100428 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening for portions of west central into north central Minnesota. - There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor activities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow is in place across our region on the back side of the upper low now centered over Hudson Bay. Shortwave ridging moves over the region Thursday followed by southwest flow ahead of deepening troughing over the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. After a near seasonable day today, much warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday over much of the region, though there may be a larger spread in temperatures Friday due to the arrival and timing of a strong cold front. This front Friday brings the next chance for organized thunderstorms to parts of the region (mainly MN). Much more seasonal or even below average temperatures return this weekend into next week behind that front and lowering heights in response to several deepening upper lows in Canada and the Pacific NW that will migrate over our region. ...Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening... Southerly flow ahead of the cold front Friday brings increased BL moisture (Tds 62-68F) and a narrow corridor of higher instability (MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/KG) in response to steepening mid level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km). Increased mid level flow will bring effective shear values in excess of 40kt to much of our region, and ahead of the cold front there is a window where hodographs are supportive of supercells and even some supportive of dominant right moving supercells and tornadoes. The tornadic environment may remained more capped before forcing increases and shear profiles change in in our area making the threat more conditional. Ultimately, the location, coverage, and impacts of severe thunderstorm activity will be determined by the cap weakening and the frontal timing during the afternoon/evening. Ensemble/deterministic guidance have zeroed in at this range on a timing favoring mainly our western MN/north central MN counties. This is also reflected in AI based systems which show strong signals for severe impacts in those regions. The ceiling on impacts for this event includes s significant severe impacts from hail (2"+), a conditional risk for tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. though there are enough uncertainties that there are equal or greater chances impacts end up lower due to how narrow the window/corridor for the higher end of parameters will be. This is certainly a set-up to monitor. ...Soaking Rainfall Sunday night into Monday night... There is strong consensus that a strong upper low will bring widespread rainfall to our region Sunday night through Monday. NBM probabilities are 60-80% for greater than 0.5" rainfall in our CWA during that period, and probabilities for greater than 1" of rain range from 40-60% (highest in the southern RRV). While it is an organized synoptic system, the locations that receive 1"+ or even 2"+ rainfall (30% chance) will be determined by deformation zone location and embedded thunderstorm activity which will be less predictable. As the warmer more unstable air mass will be cut off to the south of this system there is currently not a signal for severe thunderstorm risk after Friday. && .AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026 Low impacts to aviation over the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Winds SW at 10-15kts Thursday afternoon from 15-23z and gusts around 20kts. gusts quickly drop off around sunset with winds remaining 5-10kts from the SW through the evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT