Windsor Park Nordic Centre Snow Report

213 FXUS63 KFGF 200903 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance for strong thunderstorms are late Monday and Monday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Surface low at 08z was in southwest Manitoba east of Brandon. This low will move southeast today into far northwest and north central MN this afternoon. Cluster of t-storms in 850 mb warm advection ahead of this system moving thru NW MN will move out west central MN by 15z. Additional chance for a few showers or t-storms possible in parts of northwest MN this afternoon. Main cold front will be located at 20z from near Bemidji to Fargo but ahead of it is a southwest to west wind shift trough which will serve as the focus for t-storm development late this afternoon and evening. This instability axis with this initial trough will be from near Duluth thru St Cloud/Minneapolis and into southwest MN. Therefore day 1 SPC keeps marginal and slight severe storms risks just to our east and south. Friday will see a second but weaker short wave move southeast from central Manitoba into southwest sections of NW Ontario and give a chance for a few showers or t-storm in NW MN in the afternoon. Looking farther ahead based on machine learning severe outlooks some risk of strong storms will exist with cold front moving thru Monday late afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft continues with various weak shortwaves moving into the Plains. One such shortwave comes through tonight and Thursday, bringing a surface low with some weak cold air advection behind it. The northwesterly flow amplifies a bit into the weekend as ridging builds over the Rockies/Western Plains. A shortwave coming over the top of the ridge will break it down a bit on Monday, with some precipitation chances. The northwesterly flow returns for mid-week, although ensemble members show some differences in were exactly the ridge axis sets up. NBM mean has been trending on the dry side with temperatures just above seasonal averages. ...Showers and thunderstorms tonight and Thursday... Many of the model solutions have scattered shower and a few thunderstorms entering our northern counties late this afternoon and into the evening as the shortwave currently over southeastern Saskatchewan digs down. Some of the models such as the NAM and the RAP have a narrow band of instability with the system. The surface based CAPE is only in the 500-1000 J/kg range, but some of the CAMs have MU CAPE a bit above 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is around 25 to 30 kts, but HREF probabilities of any strong updrafts are minimal, and model soundings this evening are not very impressive. Could see some lightning as HREF has 30 to 50 percent probabilities with this shortwave, along with brief downpours. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Cloud bases will remain above 5,000ft AGL throughout the TAF period. A few showers and weak thunderstorms are passing through the region, and will impact KTVF and KBJI early in the TAF period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will linger longest into the morning at KBJI. Elsewhere, showers and storms will end, with clouds slowly breaking up. As a cold front passes from northwest to southeast overnight into Thursday morning, winds will increase out of the northwest. A period of gusts between 20 and 25 knots is forecasted during the afternoon hours. In addition, afternoon cumulus will also develop, with bases around 5,000ft AGL. There may be a several hour period that a ceiling of low end VFR does develop in the afternoon, especially at northern terminals. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Rafferty