Windsor Park Nordic Centre snow report

827 FXUS63 KFGF 050217 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 917 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary moves through. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 ...Synopsis... Near zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains, with a good shortwave over the southern Red River currently providing some lift for storms developing in west central Minnesota. The weak frontal boundary/wind shift draped across that same area will start to wash out tonight as lee troughing gets going to our west. South to southeasterly winds will continue into Sunday as upper ridging builds into the Plains and upper midwest. A shortwave riding over the top of the ridge through southern Canada will help push a front back south into ND by Monday. A stronger shortwave comes through the Dakotas on Tuesday, pushing the frontal boundary down into our southern counties. Northwesterly flow aloft west up for mid to late week, with several of the model solutions showing an embedded shortwave coming through on Friday. ...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and early evening... Most of the development so far has been in west central MN ahead of the shortwave, and with good heating boosting ML CAPE to over 2000 J/kg, several of the cells have gained enough height to produce some 1 inch hail even with negligible shear. Any severe threat from a individual cell will be short lived as they come up and then right back down. Some localized street flooding is a possibility with slow movement of storms and PWAT values over 1.5 inches. Further north and west, there is less instability and deep moisture convergence is less impressive, and shear is not any better. Could see some lightning and brief downpours, maybe even some pea sized hail from any isolated cells that develop this afternoon. A few of the CAMs show storms redeveloping over the southern Red River Valley around 00Z, with HREF showing around a 40 percent chance for some lightning. Not a slam dunk but will have to keep an eye on general thunderstorms for a while. By sunset, most of our instability will be on a downward trend and the main shortwave will be pushing east. HREF probabilities of thunder are on a rapid downward trend after 03Z, but may have to watch a few spots at fireworks time for any lingering convection. ...Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday... The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities are not too impressive with only a few members showing any paintballs in Towner county, but can`t rule out a few isolated cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area. Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts. Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Overall, conditions will be quiet through the morning hours. Winds will remain light and variable beneath VFR ceilings. Winds will increase from the south through the day tomorrow. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon/evening, but the predictability for TAF site impacts is low, so it was foregone from this routine issuance. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux