Springhill Snow Report

926 FXUS63 KFGF 050458 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1158 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms exist over the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Latest 00Z guidance generally agrees in scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern ND overnight tonight into Saturday morning. This is driven by developing low level jet helping advect and lift higher moisture out of SD into ND. While majority of guidance depicts convection, there are noteworthy differences in strength of storms within guidance. A cluster of guidance depicts robust thunderstorms, with the other cluster keeping storms weak. This could be attributed to uncertainties in degree of forcing within the zone of lift on the periphery of the low level jet, as well as the low level jet not being particularly strong. Should storms become robust, there is the possibility of hail given sufficient shear and instability, favorable shear orientation, as well as the elevated nature of storms. Further expanding uncertainty is how large hail may get should hail production occur. Soundings in the forecast near storm environment have concerningly numerous analogs with very large hail at least 2 inches. While this is not the favored scenario (mainly due to expectation of forcing to sustain robust thunderstorms to be on the weaker side), it is something to be mindful of. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to amplify over the Plains tonight and into the weekend. Several weak shortwaves riding through the upper ridge will bring on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the next few days. There is some probability of fog redeveloping in our far eastern counties as well as running up into the higher terrain on the edge of the northern Red River Valley. On the other hand, there will be some mid level clouds coming in tonight with one of the embedded shortwaves, which may inhibit fog formation. Not much change in the pattern Saturday and Sunday with additional weak embedded shortwaves and southeasterly surface winds ahead of the surface trough. Flow become more southwesterly on Monday as the ridge axis shifts east, with another shortwave coming through. Upper troughing begins to move into south central Canada on Tuesday and then off to the east after, leaving the area in near zonal to slightly northwesterly flow. A few weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precipitation chances and above average temperatures continue. ...Severe chances over Labor Day weekend... First of several shortwaves under the upper ridge comes in tonight, and with warm air advection, some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Main activity will be in our far western counties, although it is uncertain how far east the decent elevated instability will move. Some of the CAMs have some fairly healthy thunderstorms developing over southeastern ND after 10Z tonight, while other runs have showers or nothing at all. The HREF has some low probabilities (10 percent) of strong updraft helicity tracks early tomorrow morning, so can`t completely rule out some elevated hailers but not super widespread. Another shortwave coming through Saturday afternoon or night could bring additional convective activity, but the deep layer shear is pretty unimpressive at around 25 kts. Slightly better shear and instability on Sunday over eastern ND, although much will depend on how previous convection plays out and exact timing of the embedded waves. Best shear will be Monday afternoon, although CAPE values are all over the place. In short, there will be several chances for a few isolated severe cells to develop Saturday through Monday, but exactly where and when are uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Forecast impacts to TAF sites main stem from lowered ceilings and chance for fog, of which may be dense, as well as a medium chance for storms. Regarding the medium chance for thunderstorms to impact sites like KDVL, KFAR, and KGFK, confidence has increased some in this potential impact to these sites from storms. There is currently showers and storms in south-central into southeast ND, migrating toward the east and northeast. Storms may weaken as they move, however, expectation is for additional storms to develop in their wake. This generative area of storms is forecast to move toward eastern ND by 09Z. There is still not high confidence in any particular storm to impact the site, however, confidence is high in the potential now. Regarding lowered ceilings and potential fog, the area of MVFR to IFR ceilings within central MN continues to migrate westward into northeast and west-central MN. This will impact KBJI through at least 15Z, and potentially extend as far as KTVF between 09Z-15Z. This also includes a medium chance for fog at KBJI, of which may be dense. Opted to include a TEMPO group at KBJI to note most likely timeframe for this to occur. Also, included 4SM BR at KTVF between 11Z-15Z as there is a low chance for fog to impact these sites, potentially as early as 09Z. Confidence is not as high in this occurrence compared to KBJI. After 15Z, low clouds will tend to lift and gradually diminish, with the exception of KBJI where low ceilings may linger. Otherwise, generally east to southeast winds 10-20kt are forecast through the afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...CJ