Stony Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

451 FXUS63 KFGF 250434 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1134 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat advisory for parts of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota Saturday, and even more widespread on Sunday. There is a 40 percent chance for heat index values over 105 in the southern Red River Valley on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...Synopsis... Water vapor loop shows a fairly nice shortwave moving through southern Saskatchewan currently, and that will skirt along the international border and down into northern MN tonight. Surface trough extends from southern Manitoba into western ND, with some showers and thunderstorms trying to develop along it. Discussion about these storms in the section below. Upper ridging builds into the Rockies and western Plains over the weekend, and many of the model solutions have a ridge riding shortwave coming over the area Saturday night and Sunday. Northwesterly flow aloft to ridging continues into the upcoming work week, with several weak shortwaves moving through. Temperatures continue to look very warm through the upcoming week, with some signs of heights starting to drop on Friday. ...Severe chances this afternoon and evening... Out ahead of the surface trough/frontal boundary and across most of our forecast area, temperatures have rising into the 80s with dew points in the low 70s. Readings a little lower in our far east where stratus has taken its time scattering out. Sounding at BIS at 18Z has plenty of warm air at 850mb and still plenty of CIN. There is also some dry air aloft that could get entrained into the developing storms. All this to say, convection from near the international border down into central ND has struggled a bit to get going. We will continue to see destabilization for the next few hours, and the shortwave over southern Saskatchewan will only get closer and provide upper support for convective initiation. HRRR starts developing some fairly intense convection around 23Z, and other CAMs are a bit slower or faster, but fairly similar. HREF updraft helicity tracks show plenty of stronger storms developing, and probabilities of wind and hail from the SSCRAM are over 25 percent in parts of northwestern MN. If anything becomes surface base instead of elevated, can`t rule out some tornadoes with the Nadocast and SSCRAM both showing some 10 percent chances along the boundary. Most of the activity should shift eastward and out of the forecast area shortly after midnight as the shortwave moves through and we lose daytime heating. ...Heat impacts this weekend... Ridging continues to build over the next few days, with 850mb temps near 30 C nudging into southern ND. Some high level smoke might keep temps down a few degrees, and with a shortwave coming over the top of the ridge Saturday night into Sunday, can`t rule out some clouds that could also keep temperatures down in a bit. However, the probability of maximum temperatures over 90 is 90 percent or greater for all but our far northern and eastern tier both Saturday and Sunday. Apparent temperatures get to 100 degrees in portions of east central and southeastern ND and west central MN tomorrow, with even more widespread heat index values above criteria on Sunday. There is about a 40 percent chance for heat index values over 105 Sunday, and wet bulb globe temperatures get above 80 in many areas. Not confident enough for a warning at this point but could see some areas approaching it on Sunday. Have a heat advisory for a limited area tomorrow and across all but the Devils Lake Basin and Lake of the Woods area on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 There is the low chance for additional thunderstorms at BJI, but overall the risk for showers and storms at all TAF sites will rapidly diminish overnight. VFR conditions will prevail with generally light winds below 10 knots, increasing to at most 15 knots by tomorrow afternoon in portions of the area. Skies will remain VFR with cumulus clouds potentially developing in the afternoon, but with cloud bases generally between 200-250kft. These would diminish towards the end of the TAF period should they develop. As a result, weather impacts to aviation will be minimal for the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ024- 026>030-038-039-049-052-053. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ008-016. MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ001>003-029-030-040. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ004-007>009- 013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux