Stony Mountain Ski Area snow report

335 FXUS63 KFGF 100550 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, night, and into early Wednesday morning. Afternoon main hazards would be large hail to size of golf balls, tornadoes, and gusts to 60 mph. For tonight into Wednesday morning, main hazards would be very strong winds to 80 mph, line-embedded brief tornadoes, and hail to the size of quarters. There is also a flash flood risk tonight. -Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to low and mid 90s, highest within the Red River Valley. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Red River Valley this afternoon. Those working outside or exercising in directly sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience impacts. -There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon east of the Red River. Main hazards include hail to the size of golf balls, wind gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper level trough over the Northwest Pacific into Intermountain West is allowing embedded waves of energy to spread over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, including one shortwave of note that will move out of the Northern Rockies into the western Dakotas and eventually southern MB. Ahead of these features, an air mass composed of hot temperatures into the 90s concurrent with rich low level moisture with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s has overspread eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will set the stage for robust and eventual widespread thunderstorms to develop, including those that become severe given the increasing wind energy associated with the upper trough, and locally enhanced near the embedded shortwave troughs. Hot and moist air mass currently in place is also leading to potential for heat-related impacts to more sensitive groups this afternoon within the Red River Valley. More information on this can be found below. The warm and moist air mass is expected to still linger within Minnesota by afternoon Wednesday ahead of an eventual cold front that will finally move east through our area by the afternoon. The upper trough axis will also finally swing through our area Wednesday during the day. This will allow for additional thunderstorms to develop mainly within Minnesota, some of which may again be severe. More specific details on today`s and Wednesday`s severe risk can be found below. Thursday into next week, the pattern changes turning much cooler and windier than recent days. Upper trough migrates into southern Canada bringing zonal to northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with the help of several reinforcing cold fronts to sweep through our area. Forecast highs into the 60s and lows into the 40s this weekend through at least early next week. ...Severe risk today and Wednesday... Previous AFDs talked about potential for discrete supercellular-type storms capable of all hazards this afternoon. Thus far, attempts at sustained thunderstorm development has failed within our area. This may be due to just enough capping as observed on a UND sounding sampled from Grand Forks at 18Z. However, with continued daytime heating and gradually increasing moisture converging in localized areas within the Red River Valley, northeast ND and northwest MN, there is still a chance this scenario could come to fruition. Should this occur, large hail to the size of golf balls (perhaps larger), tornadoes, and localized gusts to 60 mph would be main hazards. This window for discrete storms generally ends at around sunset/7 PM. Later this evening/night, there remains high confidence in a larger complex/line of storms to enter into the Devils Lake basin at around 8 PM from central ND, with either additional complex/line of storms or the same complex pushing east/northeast elsewhere into eastern ND, Red River Valley, and northwest into west-central MN during the overnight to early morning Wednesday hours. Main hazards with this later activity will be very gusty winds 60-70 mph, locally 80 mph, as well as line-embedded brief tornadoes. Line-embedded tornadoes are typically on the weaker side (less than EF-2 strength), and relatively brief/localized, although potentially numerous spin ups could happen (low confidence in coverage). These would likely be contingent to portions of the leading edge of the complex/line that orient themselves more west-east, and more perpendicular to the low level shear. Additionally, these may be intermingled with similarly strengthened straight lined winds to 80 mph. While hail remains possible, hail would likely be more on the smaller size (up to quarter inch), with the exception of if an embedded supercellular structure can develop within the complex/line in which hail could be as large as golf balls. And for what it`s worth based on recent questions we`ve received, we are not anticipating this event to be similar to June 20th 2025`s derecho, based on this event`s instability, shear, and forcing for ascent parameter spacing not as robust as June 20th`s. Getting into Wednesday, additional scattered storms are expected to develop in the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing east into Minnesota. Instability and shear will still be high enough to allow for potential severe storms as early as early afternoon, lasting until around sunset. Main hazards with this activity would be large hail to size of golf balls, localized gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps isolated tornadoes. ...Heat-related impacts this afternoon... As of writing this discussion, heat indices within portions of the Red River Valley are in the upper 90s nearing 100F. Heat indices nearing or just touching 100 F combined with wet-bulb globe temperatures into the low 80s as well as Heat Risk of Moderate to Major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) within the Red River Valley pushed the need for an Advisory. These conditions will be impactful to those more sensitive to heat as well as those who are working/exercising outside as well as to those without a means of cooling. Heat impacts end after sunset this afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A line of severe thunderstorms continues to push slowly eastward early this morning and has brought wind gusts to 50 knots earlier at KDVL. The strongest part of the line extends from north of Valley City southeast to near Lidgerwood. This part of the line is moving more northeast than east and has produced gusts to 60 knots over the last few hours. The line should move through the GFK area over the next hour or so, KFAR and KTVF in the 07-09z time frame and KBJI in the 08-10z time frame. Winds ahead of the line continue to be from the southeast with gusts to 20 to 30 knots. A low level jet remains in place as well, mainly affecting KBJI over the next few hours with LLWS. Storms exit to the east before daybreak with a break in activity into at least mid-morning before additional showers and thunderstorms develop. Thunderstorms may again be severe during the late morning and afternoon hours. Most of this activity should remain east of KDVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...BJH/WFO DLH