Stony Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

757 FXUS63 KFGF 260433 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1133 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional light rain is expected tonight through Saturday night, and there is the potential for widespread soaking rain early next week. These rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...Synopsis... Ridging over the Upper Midwest will continue to pull east tonight, with a shortwave lifting into the Northern Plains. That shortwave will head off into northern MN/Ontario tomorrow, with southwesterly flow aloft behind it into the upcoming weekend. Another, stronger shortwave will come out into the region Monday, with the main upper trough axis arriving in the Rockies or western Plains by Tuesday. The second shortwave will help push an inverted surface trough and frontal boundary through the forecast area early next week. Near zonal to southwesterly flow setting up for mid-week. After that the ensemble members are all over the place. The majority (37 percent) of the long range solutions keep the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft, but there are a couple of other clusters with either broad ridging or even northwesterly flow. With fairly high uncertainty will keep the blended solution of low POPs and near average temperatures. ...Rain tonight/tomorrow and again Monday/Tuesday... Shortwave will move in from the southwest tonight and provide some lift for light rain to develop in warm air advection. Highest probability of rainfall amounts are around the tenth of an inch to perhaps a quarter of an inch range. However, with some weak MU CAPE of up to 500 J/kg, can`t completely rule out some convective cells with heavier amounts. The decent pressure gradient will bring some fairly breezy winds and with showers aiding mix down can`t completely rule out some gusts up to 30 mph or so at times. A bit of a break on Sunday, then the stronger system arrives early next week. Still some slight variations in the exact track, but seem to be converging on a solution with deformation band precipitation setting up over northeastern ND and northwestern MN. Probabilities of amounts over 1 inch in this area are 60 to 70 percent, and there is even some 20 to 30 percent probabilities of over 2 inches Monday into Tuesday. A soaking rain seems likely, although could still be some variations in exactly where the heaviest amounts set up before the period arrives. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 VFR ceilings (3500-5000 ft agl) have returned briefly to the Red River Valley of eastern ND and much of northwest MN, while IFR ceilings continue in the KDVL area. As a system approaches from western ND additional low level moisture will result in MVFR then IFR ceilings returning across the entire region early Saturday morning, along with a period of rain west to east. There should eventually be improvement in north central ND towards KDVL on the back side of a surface frontal zone Saturday evening, however east of this IFR ceilings are likely to linger and there is potential for LIFR ceilings (300-400 ft agl) and fog to develop late Saturday evening and Saturday night. Southeast winds 12-16kt are expected, with periodic gusts around 25kt mainly during the daytime period Saturday, decreasing Saturday afternoon and evening and shifting more to the south- southwest (10kt or less). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR