Gore Mountain Snow Report

778 FXUS61 KBTV 190623 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 223 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 223 AM EDT Saturday... No substantial changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 223 AM EDT Saturday... 1. Dry conditions continue through tonight, then widespread rain and cool weather is expected on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate with more sunshine Monday through Tuesday, although still below normal. 2. Dry weather persists mid to late week, though will need to monitor for increasing shower chances from Thursday onward. && .DISCUSSION... As of 223 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy morning frost across the northwestern Adirondacks and Essex County, Vermont remains on track where the combination of temperatures in the low to mid 30s and light winds around daybreak are most likely. Otherwise, uneventful weather is expected today while weak upper level ridging glides across our region concurrent with surface high pressure. The ridge axis kicks to our east tonight in advance of a shortwave trough and wave of low pressure approaching from our west. This system will bring our anticipated rain event for Sunday. The majority of model guidance favors steadier rain, and greater rainfall amounts, in our southern areas. However, a cluster of models has more uniform rain areawide/farther north, possibly associated with stronger 850 millibar warm air advection while a closed low tracks over the eastern Great Lakes, as opposed to an open wave. In any event, increasing confidence and statistical likelihood of steady rain during much of the daylight hours has led to lowering of temperatures with temperatures quite cool. In fact, forecast highs in the low to mid 50s are near or below the 10th percentile in the climatology and at least for Burlington, it could be the coolest daytime high for the date since at least 1990. We`ll have very dry low level air ahead of this system, so upon saturation temperatures will tend to steady or even fall during the day as rain spreads northeastward through the region. Timing of rain looks fairly consistent with onset during the morning, mostly in northern New York through 10 AM and by noon into western portions of Vermont. A later onset timing would allow for high temperatures to occur relatively early in the day before rain arrives. Duration of rain for any given location looks largely 6 to 12 hours, so for most places much of the daytime hours look wet. The intensity of rain will vary from light to moderate. Some of the highest rainfall rates could be near 0.3"/hour, but mostly in the 0.02" to 0.08"/hour rate. As such, total rainfall largely looks like somewhere in the 0.3" to 0.6" range, with the higher amounts favored over the Adirondacks and eastward into south central Vermont. Conditions look moderately breezy, especially through midday Sunday, which will result in wind chills in the higher terrain dropping into the 30s. As such, anyone out in the mountains should consider cool weather rain gear. Wind fields won`t be overly strong, given modest gradient flow, with 25 to 30 MPH southerly low level flow anticipated. Rain stabilized air will limit mixing, although breezy conditions in the eastern side of the northern Champlain Valley can be expected due to local terrain effects. Following the departure of this system Sunday evening to the east, we`ll gradually get back under a Canadian air mass as a strengthening high pressure area builds southeastward amidst a large upper level ridge. Relatively weak advection and moist surface conditions following the rain will probably lead to fog early Monday morning. Aside from any early day shallow clouds, Monday will probably be mainly sunny under the influence of the large ridge. Temperatures will mostly trend a few degrees warmer from Monday to Tuesday with conditions remaining dry. However, cool northeasterly flow on Tuesday will limit the moderation, especially if mid-level clouds associated with a wave of low pressure passing well south of our region make it this far north. KEY MESSAGE 2: A Rex block will be in place by mid week next week, with high pressure centered to our north while low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic. While the weather will be pleasant, temperatures will likely remain below normal, with highs in the 50s/low 60s in spite of sunshine. Clear skies and light winds will allow for chilly overnights, and patchy frost will be possible in the Adirondacks/eastern VT valleys each morning. Things become less certain from Thursday onward as there are significant differences in model solutions in how quickly the block breaks down, and if the Mid Atlantic troughiness and associated precipitation can lift north into our region. The 19/00z GFS in particular is quite pessimistic, lifting a broad area of rain into our area later Thursday. Low pressure trundles very slowly off the southern New England coast Friday into Saturday, and moisture wrapping back into NY/northern New England would not only keep widespread rain, it would also make for fairly chilly daytime temperatures potentially in the 40s and 50s. It should be noted that this is one of the most extreme solutions and is generally not supported by the GFS ensemble members. The latest ECMWF and Canadian solutions likewise keep the high pressure and dry weather over our region for at least 24 hours beyond the GFS. Have stayed with the NBM/WPC forecast for Wednesday onward given the spread in model solutions for mid/late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR expected through the entire TAF period. Only exception will be the chance of some brief 3-5SM visibilities in mist/fog at SLK/MPV/EFK 08z-12z. Otherwise, just passing high clouds will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable, remaining less than 8 kt. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031-034. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kutikoff AVIATION...Hastings