Mont Ste-Marie Snow Report

674 FXUS61 KBTV 160648 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 248 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... For Friday, wind gusts have increased and humidity has decreased for most locations. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Afternoon/evening showers remain likely for portions of the region Thursday followed by breezy and drier weather for Friday. 2. Below normal temperatures and moisture to start the weekend will support chances for patchy to potentially widespread frost in portions of northern New York and central/eastern Vermont. 3. Cooler weather with chance for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Following the passage of decaying front today, the old boundary will be positioned just to our south tomorrow as a wave of low pressure develops. Meanwhile, another cold front to our northwest will be approaching. The combination of large scale lift ahead of this front and the moisture advection from the system south of the region appears to help blossom rain over our region during the afternoon, generally expanding towards the north and east with time. Model spread continues to be large with regards to the exact footprint of the rain, still favoring our southern Vermont locales while rain chances become more questionable as you go northward. Increasing low level moisture will support some instability, but most guidance shows insufficient lapse rates to get deep convection and associated thunder. Still, slight chances of thunder statistically are warranted at this time over southern/eastern portions of the region during the late afternoon into the early evening before showers exit to our east. Friday continues to look like a classic early fall day. Following a secondary cold front passing through early in the day, much drier, cool air will be evident. Have trended winds and wind gusts higher as guidance has consistently shown a gusty northwest flow pattern that would allow widespread 30 MPH gusts in much of northern Vermont, with slightly lighter winds in northern New York. There will be impressively dry air aloft to tap into such dew points will plummet during the morning as the boundary layer deepens. As a result, low humidity values can be expected in lower elevations especially, likely below 40% in the Champlain Valley and Connecticut River Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a breezy afternoon, cool high pressure to our northwest may crest sufficiently overhead that winds slacken enough to allow for frost development, especially in most sheltered locations above 1000 feet elevation. The latest NBM 10th percentile low temperatures seems like a good first guess if radiational cooling is as efficient as it could be in this type of setup, showing temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s throughout the Adirondacks and central and eastern Vermont Saturday morning. Model output statistics for perennial cold spot at the Adirondack Regional Airport currently shows a low of 29, which is only a couple degrees lower than what was observed yesterday morning and seems reasonable. With light winds and a cooler start to the day, high temperatures Saturday will probably be near to slightly lower than on Friday. The air will remain crisp with dew points again mainly in the 30s during the day. Precipitable moisture will be quite low, as the ensemble mean values only gradually increase above 50% of normal from west to east as the air mass slightly modifies. KEY MESSAGE 3: Still quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to possibility of some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. ECMWF has continued to keep our region drier with system remaining south of our region. GFS has now returned to a solution with our region having some light rain Saturday night and Sunday. Will hope for better model agreement as we get closer to the weekend. For now have chance for showers mentioned from 06-18z Sunday. Weather pattern will remain active through next week with additional chances for showers on Tuesday and then again towards the end of the work week. Temperatures will start out cooler than normal this weekend then trend back towards seasonal normals by mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Much quieter aviation forecast with no fog expected as clouds and precipitation move across our region overnight. Light rain has not lowered any ceilings or visibilities, pretty low impact. Mainly a wind forecast for all sites with winds veering from southerly to southwesterly, and eventually northwesterly. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 227 AM EDT Wednesday...Channeled southerly flow remains in place early this morning, with winds between 15 and 25 knots on the north lake and broad waters of Lake Champlain along with significant wave heights between 2 and 3 feet. Conditions will improve through the morning as winds gradually weaken, and winds will become light and variable this afternoon before turning northerly as a weak front passes through. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Kutikoff