Mt. Pisgah Snow Report

511 FXUS61 KBTV 030740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 240 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 221 AM EST Tuesday... Precipitation onset has shifted earlier for Thusday`s rainfall while amounts for the frontal system have decreased. Otherwise, minimal changes were made. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 221 AM EST Tuesday... 1. Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday with potential for exceeding a few daily records Wednesday afternoon. 2. Light rain showers are possible this afternoon and evening, then widespread rain is expected Thursday into Friday. 3. Some beneficial rain remains likely over the weekend, although chances for heavier amounts have trended downward. && .DISCUSSION... As of 221 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezes will remain southerly today and tomorrow, but will be increasing. Gusts 15 to 25 mph can be expected today, especially in the northern Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley. Wednesday will see a surge of warm air advection as southerly flow deepens and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts to around 30 mph are probable for channeled locations with 15 to 20 mph gusts expected elsewhere. Temperatures will sharply rise over today`s highs in the low/mid 60s to the upper 60s to mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon. As the front and rainfall moves in Thursday, temperatures will begin to trend cooler with highs back in the 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Light radar returns are evident across the Canadian border with stronger returns evident in the vicinity of Lake Huron. These returns will track eastward through the day as a weak wave moves along the northern periphery of high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states. Best chances for rain remain towards the Canadian border this afternoon and overnight with only a few hundredths to around 0.12" of rain. The next chances of rain will be on Thursday as the front moves into the region. Models are showing more of a consensus that the onset of precipitation will be earlier than previous forecasts beginning in the early morning hours across northern New York and by daybreak in Vermont. The biggest change has been in QPF which has sharply lowered as strongest forcing shifts south of the region. Chances are decreasing on amounts and most likely amounts falling below 0.25" Thursday. There are still a few ensemble members that have more forcing farther north, but those have been dwindling each run. KEY MESSAGE 3: At least a couple of chances for showers remains on track Friday through Monday; however, uncertainty in timing is large. As of now, the most likely scenario for precipitation forcing relates to a wave of low pressure developing to our southeast by Friday evening and working its way northeastward Saturday, while a trailing upper level low slowly crosses our region from the west. The potential for rainfall exceeding an inch has decreased with the latest ensemble guidance, as fewer members are supporting the idea of this low track retrograding to the northwest quickly enough to bring a conveyor belt of heavier rain this far north and west (as opposed to eastern New England). Instead, much of the rain over the weekend may be tied simply to showers that swing through in cyclonic, upslope flow. In general, the GEFS supports a faster progression of the upper level trough with weaker downstream blocking compared to the ENS, supporting a Friday night into Saturday timing as opposed to showers coming through later in the weekend into Monday. While there is plenty of uncertainty in the details, the shift to troughing will lead to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern into early next week even if there are extended dry periods for a given location. For those looking forward to winter weather, temperatures aloft may cool enough for mountain snow chances, with about a 30-50% chance snow levels fall to 3000 feet Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR will prevail throughout much of the TAF period, although ceilings will lower resulting in at least some MVFR later Tuesday at most terminals. Scattered showers will spill out from our west through the next several hours, with most coverage expected after 18Z and before 02Z, on the southern flank of frontal system. Most of these showers are favored to affect our northern terminals, with highest chances of visibility restrictions at EFK. Ceilings are more likely to drive flight conditions, with greatest chances of cloud bases lowering to 2200-2800 ft after 18z Tue at MSS/SLK/EFK where prevailing MVFR is indicated. Winds will mainly be light out of the south/southwest, although southwesterly flow will become marginally strong (30-35 knots at 2000 feet) late in the period to result in LLWS at MSS when surface winds are expected to be around 5 knots. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS. Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 71 (2022) | 73 KBTV | 73 (1982) | 72 KPBG | 72 (1990) | 69 KMPV | 72 (2022) | 72 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm DISCUSSION...Storm/Kutikoff AVIATION...Kutikoff CLIMATE...NWS BTV