Navarino Hills Snow Report

830 FXUS63 KGRB 100428 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1028 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered (30 to 50% chance) showers possible Wednesday into Thursday. Potential for lake effect flurries continuing over far north-central Wisconsin and along the shoreline through Friday. - Above normal temperatures continue Tuesday then cool to near normal toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Quiet weather is in the forecast for Tuesday before showers return Wednesday morning. Weak WAA ahead of an upper trough will provide the moisture and lift to justify chance pops (30 to 50% chance) starting in the morning hours, but initially concentrated to far northern Wisconsin, closer to the trough. The scattered shower activity is then expected to quickly spread across the region as the cold front sweeps across the area. Winds will shift northwards behind the front, providing the setup for some lake effect showers in the typical lake effect areas of north-central Wisconsin and possibly portions of the Lake Michigan shoreline, especially northern Door County. These showers will likely (50-70% chance) stick around while the more northerly flow persists much of Thursday before tapering to an end over the day Friday. Overnight low temperatures may suffice for snow to mix in at times in the lake effect regions. Precipitation totals have come up slightly across the region, but overall the on and off showers Wednesday and Thursday will still be fairly light. Probabilistic guidance paints out around 40-60% chance of exceeding a tenth of an inch across the area, and around 20-30% of a quarter of an inch across the northern portions of Wisconsin. The lake effect areas may also need monitoring, as there is some potential to see locally higher rainfall totals if precipitation persists for the entire period, especially in north-central Vilas County and in northern Door near Washington Island. At this time, probabilistic guidance highlights these two areas around 30% chance of exceeding a half an inch of rainfall. Snowfall amounts have not changed much as the window for flurries remains small and accumulations will likely remain minimal on the surface. Temperatures will see a return to near normal with the influx of cooler air, with highs in the upper 30s to 40s Thursday and Friday before gradually getting above normal again over the weekend. Outlook... Solid signal (50 to 70%) exists for above normal temperatures through at least the end of the month with El Nino driving the synoptic pattern. Additionally, omega ridge looks to set up toward the end of the week, which should result in a prolonged period of dry weather to accompany the mild conditions. With D4 drought in far northern Wisconsin, will have to monitor for fire weather concerns over the next several weeks. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Good flying conditions are expected to be in place across the region through the TAF period with VFR conditions expected. Skies will remain mostly clear through Tuesday, then thicken and lower Tuesday evening as a shortwave approaches the northern Great Lakes. Surface winds will be light, around 5 kts across all terminals overnight. Winds will see minimal increases during the day Tuesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kurimski