Pine Mountain Resort snow report

723 FXUS63 KGRB 170522 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1222 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions expected across northern WI this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere with very warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low RH values. - Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. There is low confidence on the timing and coverage of severe storms. - A return to drier and cooler weather is expected for the mid to late part of the next work week. Some nights could need frost or freeze headlines. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Near term through Sunday...Another dry afternoon with RH values less than 20% over most of the area. Temperatures have risen into the mid 70s north, but have reached the lower to middle 80s over eastern WI. Readings have even cracked the mid 70s on Door County and Washington Island. Next 24hr will be changeable. Backdoor cold front charges in from the north this evening, switching winds to northeast overnight through Sunday as surface warm front will only be slow to move north. Progress will be further hampered with the cooler flow off Lake Michigan. Temperatures on Sunday will show a large range due to the onshore flow and clouds. Coolest readings in the 50s will be over eastern WI, perhaps as far west as the Fox Valley. Meanwhile in the far south due to approaching warm sector and north along the Upper Michigan border, highs will reach well into the 60s. As the warm front approaches Sunday, a few showers will begin to develop with warm advection aloft. Steadier showers and some thunder develops on Sunday afternoon. Steeper mid-level lapse rates over 8.5C/km pushing in from the south could aid in a few stronger storms late in the afternoon closer to low-level jet axis 40-50 kt over western WI. Overall though the thunder on Sunday looks more embedded as the main period of showers shift north across the area late morning through mid afternoon. Soundings over southern WI where the sfc warm front makes it through point to very strong capping and hostile environment for convection. This theme continues into Sunday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through early Tuesday...Capping that shows up late Sunday continues to persist on Sunday night. Also by this time, main convergence at nose of 500mb and 850mb jets looked to be displaced northwest and north of most cwa. Exception could be over northwest cwa where influences from upstream convection/possible MCVs and weak sfc waves could help trigger scattered showers and storms. Forecast effective (2-8km) shear and MUCAPE would suggest severe storms could sneak into those areas at times Sunday evening into Monday morning. A few CAMS (including the 12z HRRR and RRFS) point to a line of storms making a run into western WI later Sunday night. A lot of questions in mode, coverage for severe potential Sunday night into Monday morning. Rest of Monday into Monday evening, majority of WI will be in the warm sector ahead of approaching low pressure and cold front. Sfc based instability (highs in the 80s with dewpoints in the 60s) and effective shear will be more than sufficient for strong to severe storms, but soundings in the warm sector still show residual capping 800-700mb layer and there is limited convergence. Think pops in our forecast may be a bit too widespread and high, but some showers and storms could occur at times, so will refrain from lowering them for now. Cold front slowly approaches late Monday night, so like the categorical pops by that time. MUCAPEs still in the 1500-2500J/kg with stronger 500mb and 850mb jets sliding overhead and hint of pre- frontal sfc trough ahead of the cold front support severe risk deep into Monday evening, if not even into the early overnight hours. SPC Day3 (12z Mon through 12z Tue) highlights majority of area in Slight Risk which seems appropriate even though uncertainty in details is still pretty high. Cold front shifts through early Tuesday but some showers and embedded thunder could hang on through Tuesday morning. One last warmish day with highs well into the 70s eastern WI and in the mid to upper 60s northern WI. Rest of the forecast looks as it has for a while with temperatures at or below average midweek and warming into next weekend. Overall it looks to remain dry until later in the weekend. Only main impact could be the need for Frost/Freeze headlines midweek over northern WI. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR flying conditions will persist overnight, with some mid and high clouds gradually moving in from the south. A surface boundary continues to drop south tonight, bringing a wind shift to the northeast along with occasional wind gusts up to 30 kts as it moves through. By Sunday morning, skies will be broken to overcast, with low clouds and MVFR cigs moving in during the late morning and early afternoon, then dropping to IFR from mid to late afternoon. These low clouds will be accompanied by scattered to widespread rain showers, along with lowering vsbys. There could be thunder at times, but confidence in exact timing is still low. Included PROB30 groups for most likely hours to see any thunderstorms at each TAF location. Easterly winds on Sunday will gusts up to around 25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Pine fuels have reached their peak volatility and fine fuels have still not greened up over northern WI, so dry, windy and warm weather will bring elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions to northern WI this afternoon. Rain fell across northern WI last night, with some locations receiving 0.25-0.40 inch in northwest Oneida, southeast Vilas and the northern portions of Forest and Florence counties. Although sunshine, low relative humidity (15-20%) and west winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will result in drying this afternoon, suspect that the areas that received higher rainfall amounts may not become critically dry. SPS continues in northern WI until 7p this evening for elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......KLJ FIRE WEATHER...JLA