Pine Mountain Resort Snow Report

888 FXUS63 KGRB 290742 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers to spread across the area this morning into this evening. Most locations to see at least 0.20" with the greatest potential for localized heavy rainfall (0.50-1") across the Northwoods. - Hazardous boating and swimming conditions on Lake Michigan from late tonight through Sunday evening. - Becoming warmer and more humid Sunday into early next week. Heat indices may rise into the 90s Monday afternoon. - Thunderstorms possible at times from Sunday into early next week. It is too early to determine if any of the storms would become severe from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Precipitation Trends...The forecast area remains on tracks to see widely scattered rain showers today as a mid-level shortwave/trough and weak surface warm front sweeps across the region. Although deep- layer shear will be around 30-40 kts, a lack in instability (only around 100 J/kg) will limit thunderstorm chances to only a few rumbles of thunder at times. As the main area of rain gradually departs the region to the northeast late this evening, another warm front will begin to lift into central and east-central WI. Models seem to be in decent agreement this front will produce additional isolated/scattered showers and perhaps some elevated storms in these areas before these showers/storms and the showers in far northeast WI exit by Sunday morning. PWATs will mainly be in the 1.50-1.75 inch range, but will increase to 1.75-near 2.00 inches with the arrival of the secondary warm front. CAMs/short-range models indicate the axis of heaviest rain (0.50-1.00 inches) will be across the Northwoods, while mid to long-range models indicate the axis will extend from central into east-central WI. However, ensembles are trending towards the short-range model solution. Leaned more towards this solution given the agreement/trends. The warm front will gradually lift north on Sunday and become nearly stationary over the area on Monday as an upper-level ridge resides overhead. This will leave the forecast area in the warm sector with a surplus of moisture and instability, especially on Monday (MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg). Models are in disagreement in precip chances for Sunday, but the greatest chances should remain focused along the warm front as it lifts north. For Monday, despite the surplus of moisture and instability, mid-level capping may prevent any convection from developing. However, there are some signs of a cold front/shortwave moving over the area sometime later in the day on Monday, which would present the opportunity for showers and storms, including strong/severe, to develop. Will need to monitor these features over the next few forecast runs. Depending on where/when the aforementioned cold front moves over the region, models are in some agreement with the front dropping somewhere over the state and remaining nearly stationary, leading to additional chances for showers and storms on Tuesday. Another shortwave then looks to move over the region sometime midweek, bringing more chances for showers and storms. Temperatures...Highs will be a few degrees below normal today due to the anticipated rain/cloud cover, with values in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will then rise above normal on Sunday into the upper 70s to mid 80s, and even warmer on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, due to the persistent southerly flow. This flow will also result in the return of humid weather on Sunday and Monday as dew points increase into the upper 60s and low 70s. Depending on cloud cover and precip chances, heat indices on Monday may rise into the low to mid 90s. Mother Nature is reminding us summer isn`t over yet. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Clouds will thicken and lower overnight ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave. Patchy fog is possible over far northeast WI late tonight, with minimal impacts to the terminals. Rain chances increase Saturday morning as the aforementioned weak shortwave and warm advection move into the region. Rain arrives at KRHI/KAUW/KCWA between 10Z-12Z Sat, reaching KGRB/KATW/KMTW around 14Z-16Z Sat. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will develop in steady rain with IFR ceilings possible across north-central Wisconsin. Thunder chance remains <20% and therefore not included in the TAFs. Rain then ends from southwest to northeast Saturday evening as the main forcing and warm front lifts northeast with VFR conditions returning to the central and east-central Wisconsin TAF sites. Forecast confidence is high for VFR overnight, medium for MVFR Saturday morning, high for MVFR Saturday afternoon, medium to high for VFR to return Saturday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Southerly winds will steadily increase late tonight into Sunday, with sustained winds at 15 to 20 knots along Lake Michigan. These persistent and gusty southerly winds will build wave heights to 3 to 5 feet along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters, producing hazardous conditions for small craft. Furthermore, the strong onshore wave action will generate a high risk of rip currents along Lake Michigan beaches from late tonight through Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed. Winds and waves are forecast to gradually subside Sunday evening as the gradient relaxes slightly. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Kurimski MARINE.........Kruk