Pine Mountain Resort snow report

675 FXUS63 KGRB 270800 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - High heat and humidity will result in heat-related impacts much of next week. Most oppressive conditions Monday and possibly Tuesday. - Mainly dry this weekend with small chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) over central Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. - Strong to severe storms possible Sunday night and again on Monday night, especially northern Wisconsin. Main hazards would be damaging winds along with heavy rain. - Periodic chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through late this week. Some of these storms could become strong or severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Near term through Sunday...Today will be the last pleasant day with temps still a bit below normal and tolerable humidity. Warming trend and gradually more humid conditions begin to ramp up on Sunday, along with more breezy conditions (SSE winds). Highs mid to upper 70s today with cooler readings near Lake Michigan. Highs finally reach normal values around 80 on Sunday. Dewpoints around 60 will arrive. Compared to what is coming early this week, that will still be pretty comfortable. Surface warm front lifts toward western Great Lakes by Sunday Night, but still will be south of here by daybreak on Monday. North of the sfc front, strong warm air/theta-e advection and increasing LLJ will result in showers and storms mainly staying west on Sunday, though a few showers, isolated storms may reach central WI in the afternoon from the west. Better chances for storms will be Sunday night. MUCAPE rising to 1000-2000J/kg (up to 4000J/kg into MN and western WI) and effective shear at least 30 kts points to potential for stronger to severe storms. WBzero heights up to 13kft may limit the severe hail potential. PWATs near 2.00 inches and very high warm cloud depths would result in drenching downpours. Northern WI favored for most concentrated coverage of storms. SPC Day2 marginal risk is only into Vilas County. Oppressive heat arrives Monday...500mb ridge with 596dam heights nearing climatological maximum for the date is centered over Ohio Valley Monday with ridge extending into the central Great Lakes. The ridge is now forecast to shift farther east by midweek compared to what was shown 24hr ago. Result is peak of heat and humidity for our area likely occurs early this week. 850mb temps rise to 23-24c on Monday once the warm front lifts through. Strong low to the northwest should propel the front through instead of it getting hung up. It will become breezy again and there is really good agreement that once the front moves through, dewpoints on Monday will rocket into the 70s by midday while temps away from the Lake Michigan shore (SSE winds) will reach 92-96F. Monday still looks very capped and hostile to convection as 700mb cap with temps 12-16c builds overhead and convective temps are over 100. Heat index values could pretty easily reach 105-108F given this setup. Potential for Excessive Heat Warning criteria being reached is increasing. Heat headlines will be needed soon. Beyond Monday, high temperatures get more uncertain, mainly from potential showers/storms and outflow/cloud debris. Tuesday certainly has a potential for mid 90s highs and continuing oppressive humidity, but there also have been hints that storms nearby on Monday night could produce an outflow that would disrupt the heating, at least for part of the area. NBM/LREF data suggest greatest percentage chance for hottest conditions will be Fox Valley/far northeast WI all the way to the lakeshore (winds more SSW there compared to the onshore flow on Monday). Again, this will depend on nearby trends with storms. Compared to Monday, not as confident that we`ll see excessive heat criteria reached on Tuesday. No matter what the highs are though through the rest of the week (upper 80s to low 90s most favored), nighttime lows will provide no relief from the heat with readings in the 70s to near 80. As a result the NWS HeatRisk output continues to show widespread major to extreme heat impacts the whole week. Overall If you have outdoor activities planned this next week, start making plans for this heat as it will impact everyone that does not have adequate cooling and hydration. Thunderstorms through the week...The heat will be with us, as too will be the threat for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Beyond Monday when capping should restrict storms, the pattern could become much more active. Monday night would be the first opportunity for this. Would expect storms to develop Monday evening northwest of here (northwest WI/MN/western Lake Superior) farther away from cap and in area of strongest low- level theta-e advection ahead of northern plains low. If that occurs, possible that MCS or more focused area of storms would track E-SE toward reservoir of mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km and MUCAPEs over 4000J/kg that will be present over the western Great Lakes. 850-300mb thicknesses can be a proxy for where an MCS would track and that would be more east than south, but with LLJ aimed into WI, could see focus trying to build south into our northern areas on the edge of cap. Tough to say for sure, but it fits this overall pattern. If that occurs, would have to watch for outflow boundaries left by this on into Tuesday which could serve to develop more sfc based storms. Any storms Monday night into Tuesday could be severe (main hazard damaging winds as freezing levels will be very high) with such high instability present and effective shear of 30-40 kts. There will be heavy rain potential as well with PWATs of 1.8 over the 90th percentile, very high warm cloud depths, and slow storm motions. Beyond Tuesday, with ridge and cap shifting east and LLJ aimed into the western Great Lakes ahead of approaching front, would expect multiple rounds of strong to severe storms at least into Thursday. Ridge rider shortwaves will dictate where/when main times of storms will occur which is impossible to say at this point. Given multiple round of storms, moderate to heavy rain could occur even as axis of higher PWAT shifts east by this time. Late this week, mid-level ridging reorients shifting from the eastern Ohio valley more toward the mississippi river valley into the western Great Lakes, taking our region out of the true ring of fire. We`ll have to see how this carries forward into the 4th of July holiday weekend. That is just tough to say this far out. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. The only exception may be for some patchy MVFR VSBY between 07z-13z overnight into Saturday morning due to light fog. Otherwise, east- southeast flow expected through Saturday evening. High clouds will stream in at times at night, with some fair weather cumulus clouds expected later Saturday morning and into the afternoon. The next chance of storms will not be until late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Hot weather is expected at times next week with highs in the 90s across much of the area away from the bay and Lake Michigan. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......Kurimski