Ski Butler Snow Report

826 FXUS61 KILN 190658 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 258 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fog potential early this morning greatly reduced due to lingering clouds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Some storms could have strong to damaging winds. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Sunday night with a potential for heavy rain. 3) Cooler and showery weather will occur for the first half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) While the primary active zone of convection will be across the lower Great Lakes today, there will be a weak disturbance south of there that will move across the region during peak heating. The atmosphere will become moderately unstable, but bulk shear will be on the weaker side. However, DCAPE will be around 1000 J/kg. So if storms become robust, then they will have the potential for strong downdrafts that could lead to strong to damaging wind gusts. At this stage the greatest potential appears to be across southeast Indiana, southwest Ohio, and northern Kentucky. Precipitable water will be increasing to around 1.8 inches, so storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, but they should be progressive enough to keep any hydrologic concerns at a minimum. KEY MESSAGE 2) Active zonal flow will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend. Each wave of convection will be a little further south than the previous one. So for tonight, expect primary activity to be across northern Indiana and northern Ohio, but the southern flank of this activity may move across northern counties. Parameters will be favorable for efficient warm rain processes, and northern counties still have the most vulnerable ground conditions due to previous heavy rainfall. It appears that activity will be progressive with a limited potential for repeated rounds of rainfall, as may occur just a bit further north. But this will have to be monitored closely in case there are any southward adjustments to the more active convective corridor. Weak low pressure and a cold front will move across the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening. Another round of showers and some thunderstorms will occur along and north of the front. There will still be a heavy rain threat with precipitable water near 1.8 inches and warm cloud depth around 4 km. Greatest potential will be any enhancement in precipitation intensity near the low pressure system. KEY MESSAGE 3) In the wake of the front, a cooler airmass will prevail over the area. A rather dynamic short wave moving out the Plains will close off in the Mississippi Valley and then slowly work its way east across the region through mid week. This will result in periods of showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some lower clouds are lingering across the area, especially near the Cincinnati terminals. There may be some temporary MVFR ceilings early on. If clouds decrease as forecast, there there will be a narrow window before daybreak when fog may develop at KLUK and also at KILN. Beyond this, VFR will prevail outside of any thunderstorms with scattered to broken cumulus. There is a chance that showers and thunderstorms could cross the region between 18Z and 0Z with a slight better chance in the Cincinnati area. Lower clouds should clear out towards 0Z with lingering mid to high clouds late in the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible again Sunday afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35