Ski Butler Snow Report

881 FXUS61 KILN 080543 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times over the weekend and through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A weak trough shifting east across the Great Lakes is supporting scattered thunderstorms across the region early this morning. Rich moisture is also supplying locally heavy downpours. Expectations into sunrise are that the overall coverage will decrease as the trough shifts eastward. A weak boundary, most noticeable by viewing theta-e values in the low-levels, gradually moves into the area from the northwest this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will warm up and modest surface dewpoints will still be present, allowing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon and into the evening. The ultimate coverage of thunderstorms may be a bit limited by the lack of upper level forcing associated with the trough. However, the convergence along the boundary may help to focus more effective low level forcing with a destabilized air mass. Given these factors, coverage is anticipated to be less than it was during the day on Friday. Shifting into Sunday morning, the boundary remains stalled over the area. Southwesterly winds increase during the afternoon, pushing the boundary northward. The southwesterly flow also brings a renewed influx of moisture across the Midwest. Aloft, a longwave trough over the Hudson Bay in Canada will supply a steady stream of persistent northwesterly flow that lasts through midweek. Disturbances within this northwesterly flow will initiate multiple episodes of organized convection over the broader region. As is often the case with this scenario, day to day changes in the forecast across the local area should be expected as confidence increases or decreases depending on the thunderstorm evolution the previous day. Future SPC outlooks will also shift around as a result. For now, Monday through Wednesday are the days to watch, with the potential decreasing later in the week as the trough sinks farther south, bringing in drier and cooler air. The exact impacts to the local area will vary from day to day, but one or multiple damaging wind events are certainly possible. Given this potential for multiple rounds, flash flooding related to excessive rainfall is also a potential impact. The HWO remains broad with the overall wording, given the uncertainty with this pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered thunderstorms continue to work across area TAF sites early this morning. CMH and LCK will be the last to observe these, ending between 08-10Z. Periods of MVFR are possible through the morning hours as the rain exits the area. Winds are around or slightly above 10 knots today, out of the southwest to west-southwest. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be less widespread compared to Friday. Therefore, until confidence increases, have limited the potential using PROB30s for a few hours late this afternoon and into the evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis