Ski Butler Snow Report

394 FXUS61 KILN 100640 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 240 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An active weather pattern continues through mid week. While specific impact details remain uncertain, multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across the area, bringing an increased potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Monday morning: The remnant cold pool air mass from the Sunday evening thunderstorms continues to modify into more unstable air. Increasing southwesterly flow is resulting in rising temperatures across portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio within the last few hours. If thunderstorms are able to form on the leading edge of the low level jet, this recovery would present the opportunity for thunderstorms to organize and push southeastward into the local area later this morning. Rest of the day Monday: While any thunderstorm coverage during the morning would complicate factors going into this afternoon and evening, the broader picture still supports an increased potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Steady southwesterly flow continues to feed moisture northeastward resulting in plentiful CAPE across the boundary stretched from east to west from Iowa to southern Michigan. New thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, moving east and southeast throughout the late afternoon and evening. In addition to the main thunderstorm period later today, given the large area hot and humid conditions, smaller clusters of thunderstorms may develop around the area. Limited some of the higher temperature values in the NBM given the potential for thunderstorm activity. The low level jet remains strong into Monday night. Depending on the amount of lingering instability, there is plenty of support for thunderstorms to develop into Tuesday morning. Tuesday: Ongoing thunderstorms in the morning will complicate the overall forecast for Tuesday, however, a potent shortwave and strengthening southwesterly low-level supports an active day regardless any early activity. Deep-layer shear is stronger Tuesday when compared to Monday, with forecast soundings indicating 0-6 km shear of 40-50 knots. If conditions align Tuesday afternoon and evening, an organized MCS is likely through central Indiana into much of the local area. Swaths of severe wind and spin-up tornadoes would be likely as the line moves through the area. The exact placement and degree of organization of the line is what remains the most uncertain. While an organized MCS would likely use much of the instability over the area, much of the broader synoptic set up remains the same. Continued southwesterly flow within a strong low level jet will supply more moisture northeastward. Any lingering outflow boundaries could be the focus of thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. By now, flash flooding may be the main concern with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Elevated flash flooding concerns would likely require a northwest to southeast orientated outflow boundary. This would support repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the same areas versus a progressive line that quickly moves through. Wednesday: The boundary is likely far enough south that chances for severe weather and flash flooding begin to decrease for the northern portions of the area. Another shortwave moves southeastward across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting additional rounds of thunderstorms. Given that this event is still a couple days away, uncertainty is larger on the exact placement of the impacts. There is even the possibility that much of the damaging wind and flash flooding threats would be outside the local area or at least isolated to the far southern portions of the area. Rest of Period: Thursday, the mid-level ridge builds in a bit farther to the north, presenting another opportunity for thunderstorms. On top of the rainfall from the previous days, flooding of area rivers could now become an increasing problem. A strong enough trough progresses into the Northeast US to allow for a much needed dry period Friday into Saturday. There are signs that additional moisture may move back to the Ohio Valley, but the immediate concern is with the events over the next couple of days. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast uncertainty will remain high over the next few days as multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected. Now that the thunderstorm coverage has shifted eastward, attention shifts back to the northwest with ongoing thunderstorms across southern Michigan and Illinois. If these thunderstorms persist into the morning hours, some may eventually arrive to the local TAF sites. Now have PROB30s in for all sites, but the line of thunderstorms may weaken as it moves through. Otherwise, the next chance for new thunderstorms to form would be during the late afternoon and evening. Until timing and coverage details become more certain, will maintain PROB30s like previous forecasts. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds are out of the southwest. Gusts between 20 to 25 knots from around 16Z through 00Z. Thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight Monday, but confidence is currently less than PROB30 thresholds. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis