Ski Butternut snow report

198 FXUS61 KALY 130635 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 235 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased coverage of isolated showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon with a passing upper level disturbance. Heat Advisories have been issued for valley areas on Tuesday with portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County going through Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat builds across the region early this week with Tuesday the hottest and most humid day of the week. This will bring moderate to major heat-related impacts. 2) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible on some days this week but no widespread precipitation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A ~600 dm heat dome will build across the North-Central CONUS early this week with a piece of this heat expanding eastward across the region within the west-northwest flow aloft. 850 hPa temperatures begin to increase today and continue to increase on Tuesday getting as warm as +20 to +22C (+2 to +3 STDEV). This will allow temperatures to trend upwards each day through Tuesday. By Tuesday, most valley areas will reach at least the low to mid-90s with mid to upper 80s across the higher elevations. Dewpoints will also increase into the 60s to locally near 70 by Tuesday afternoon. The combination of the hot temperatures and humidity will result in heat index values (feels-like temperatures) increasing into the mid-90s to lower 100s on Tuesday. High enough confidence and coordination with surrounding offices have led to the issuance of Heat Advisories for all valley areas for Tuesday. The latest NWS experimental HeatRisk continues to be in the Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) categories on Tuesday. While this period of heat will be brief and not as intense as the beginning of July, precautions should still be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. In addition to the heat, a low-level jet overhead will lead to breezy conditions on Tuesday with occasional gusts 20 to 30 mph. Some higher gusts could occur within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and into the Berkshires. It is uncertain whether these winds will limit potential warming or lower dewpoints more than what is in the current forecast. There will be minimal relief Tuesday night with low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Lowering heights and the southward passage of a cold front will allow for a slight reduction in temperatures for Wednesday but a much more noticeable drop in humidity levels with dewpoints falling into the 50s from north to south during the day. It still appears it will remain hot and humid enough for heat index values (feels-like temperatures) to reach the mid to upper 90s across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into southern Litchfield County for a second day. In these areas, the Heat Advisory goes through Wednesday. The remainder of the week will feature near seasonable temperatures with comfortable humidity levels. There will be a west to northwesterly breeze each day as well. .KEY MESSAGE 2... While widespread precipitation is not expected this week, some isolated showers and thunderstorms could be around for some days. An upper level disturbance passes through the area today. While forecast soundings show a bit of a capping inversion, the upper disturbance could provide enough forcing to allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly for areas along and north of I-90. Limited instability and shear will prevent any of these from being strong or severe. The next chance for precipitation would be for far northern areas Tuesday night as a strong upper level shortwave passes near the International Border. While most of the convection looks to stay north of the area, a couple of showers and thunderstorms could extend south into northern areas. High DCAPE across the region could allow for some strong to locally damaging winds should any storms occur. As a result, northern areas remain in a Marginal Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday night. The next best day for some isolated showers or rumbles of thunder will be for areas mainly north and east of Albany on Thursday as another upper level disturbance passes through. More widespread precipitation may hold off until next weekend at the earliest. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z/Tue...Much of the upcoming TAF period will feature VFR conditions at all sites. The exceptions would be for any possible fog at KGFL prior to daybreak where vsbys could briefly lower to IFR/MVFR or for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that could briefly reduce vsbys at KALB/KGFL/KPSF this afternoon should one pass over a terminal. A light south or calm wind overnight will become south to southwesterly around 10 kt on Monday. Wind remains south to southwesterly 4-8 kt Monday night. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Current Record High Temperatures July 14 Albany: 99 (1995) Glens Falls: 98 (1995) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1954) July 15 Albany: 96 (1997) Glens Falls: 94 (1983) Poughkeepsie: 98 (1995) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ064>066. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038>043- 048>050-052-053-059>061-083-084. MA...None. VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VTZ015. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...33 CLIMATE...33