Ski Roundtop Snow Report

175 FXUS61 KCTP 170012 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 812 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Gradually ending the severe tstm watch as the bow clears. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms should be almost done. Flash flooding threat may persist, but is likely done, too. 2) High pressure yields a short dry window for late Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning, before more storms arrive Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms should be almost done. Flash flooding threat may persist, but is likely done, too. The bow has hit the more-stable air over the Lower Susq Valley. However, a few cells still bear watching. Will leave the Flash Flood Watch up for the time being, probably until exp time (02Z) as additional, but weaker, showers and thunderstorms move in from OH. That convection will be moving into the CWA at an unfavorable time - after sunset. But, they may continue as they (spotty and not lasting too long) are until they get here. So, we will keep on with the FFA, but the threat for flash flooding has largely passed. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure yields a short dry window for late Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning, before more storms arrive Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A cold front moves through Monday. Dewpoints don`t drop much at all until later in the day Monday. So, there will still be plenty of time on Monday for instability to develop and pop showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two during the daytime. By sunset, these will be gone as dry air and loss of heating kill them off. Dewpoints drop into the 50s for many Tuesday morning. Large scale subsidence should yield a mostly sunny day, then. Return flow Tuesday night and Wed will bring the humidity up and a cold front will approach on Wednesday. Storms are expected mainly in the Wed-Wed night timeframe, but speed of the CFROPA will determine if all/part of Thursday will be dry. If showers linger, they would be over the south. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weakening line of showers and storms across the area until mid to late evening. Main issue overnight into at least early Monday afternoon will be areas of low CIGS, fog, and some showers. Improving to VFR conditions late Monday, which should hold into Wednesday. Main issue Tuesday and Wednesday morning will be the potential for patchy fog. Outlook... Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm early Monday. Wed-Thu...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions. Fri...Chance of showers across the south, otherwise dry. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ024>026- 033>036. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Martin