Ski Roundtop Snow Report

432 FXUS61 KCTP 260656 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 256 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes changes to the cloud cover forecast for the rest of the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few showers over the region overnight. 2) Turning more humid and unsettled early next week with the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers over the region overnight. Broad, low-level streamline convergence with its N/S axis near the RT 219 corridor in Western PA has resulted in some showers since earlier this afternoon. Not real warm to the west this evening, but western areas have dewpoints into the lower 60s. compared across most of the Susquehanna Vly. Also while winds are rather weak, directional shear is there on the 00Z soundings this evening. Surface convergence becomes more focused over the eastern half of the forecast area for tomorrow. Slightly higher dew points will allow for instability to be a little higher than it is today, possibly approaching 1000 J/kg in a few locations. Though upper level forcing looks to be weak, we would expect to see at least a few showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. This location of the fcst activity is different than what was noted the other day. Location could shift more as we near Sunday aft. KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled early next week with the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Main chance for widespread showers and storms will be Tuesday into Wednesday. Fcst dewpoints not all that high for late July, and there has been a slight downward trend with fcst dewpoints over the last few days. Main things supporting showers and storms is a deepening low, and a large scale pattern that supports directional shear to be present into next week. Models today do show a pattern change out toward day 10, a change from recent model runs the last few days. Thus will have to seen if this trend holds. Earlier discussion below. Minor modifications for this period that will be highlighted by a warm front moving across western PA Monday afternoon/evening, followed by a rather potent/digging mid/upper level shortwave, that will support a sub-995 mb sfc low over the Lower Glakes and Western NY Tuesday afternoon and evening. Latest model runs have trended several hours or so slower compared to runs 24 hours ago. The timing of the favorable lift associated with the thermally indirect, left front quad of the 80+ KT jet max moving across the Ohio Valley, WVA and southern PA Tuesday afternoon and evening will help to enhance a low level lee trough and convection along it. Scattered strong to severe TSRA are likely Tue afternoon and evening over at least the eastern half of the CWA with a second line of TSRA likely along the cold front across NW PA Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current observations outline LIFR conditions at BFD with fog and low cloud development currently present across the airfield as of 06Z Sunday. This trend is likely to continue overnight with HREF model guidance indicating the 10Z-13Z window for improving conditions at the airfield. Elsewhere through 12Z Sunday, it appears that JST/AOO will be most likely to experience sub-VFR conditions based on most recent GLAMP/NBM guidance. Not completely sold on this potential with low-level dry air outlining dew point depression of 5F at JST and the lack of precipitation at the airfield, thus have taken out mentions overnight given this lower potential overall. Thus, VFR conditions area wide outside of BFD have been sent out with the 06Z TAF package with moderate-to-high (70-80%) confidence. Recent hi-res model solutions paint some chances for SHRA/TSRA mainly east of UNV (IPT/MDT/LNS) during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, thus have introduced some increased mentions based on where there is increasing confidence in some precipitation mentions in this timeframe. The lowest confidence with respect to the 18Z Sunday to 03Z Monday timeframe is the timing of SHRA/TSRA popping up along IPT given the wide range in model solutions at this airfield; however, this appears to be the airfield that could have most impact. Thus, have highlighted the general timeframe of precipitation with SHRA and introduced a narrower window for TSRA mentions where instability will be the greatest and thus thunderstorm potential will be highest despite lower coverage. Further southeast, SHRA appear to be more likely and have nixed TSRA mentions at this time. After 02Z Monday, signals look fairly foggy across the entire region but lower confidence exists at AOO/JST/UNV given lower potential for SHRA/TSRA, thus have limited mentions of sub-VFR conditions. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions likely in afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA. Patchy overnight fog possible. Tue...Restrictions likely with scattered -SHRA/-TSRA. Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible as -SHRA/-TSRA becomes less numerous. Patchy overnight fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Martin/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Martin/Bauco DISCUSSION...Lambert/Martin/Bauco AVIATION...Beaty