Ski Roundtop snow report

223 FXUS61 KCTP 140735 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 335 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Higher confidence in timing of most thunderstorms (2 PM through 11 PM) && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA this afternoon and evening. 2) Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential across much of PA on Thu 6/18 && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA this afternoon and evening. High clouds will cover most of PA this morning. The filtered sunlight may take an hour or two longer to heat things up today. The temperatures should still get near convective temp in the early afternoon in the west. Storm motion will bring these into Central PA while additional but isolated storms pop up over the CWA. A cold front will be sweeping across the CWA later today and early tonight. That front will be the main focus for thunderstorms late this aftn and this evening. A pre-frontal trough may develop a few storms in the more-humid region of the Lower Susq in the afternoon, but models have backed off somewhat on this possibility with the 00Z runs. Time-lagged ensembles still hold onto some hope for this, but the trend is drier and for fewer storms in the air over the central mountains and Susq Valley. A cap aloft will probably stifle deep convection in those areas before 5 PM EDT until heights start to fall and lapse rates steepen. The dewpoints in the SE are already a little higher than the rest of the CWA, and will rise even more through the day, but high moisture (Td in the m-u 60s) will also pool ahead of the front. Deep-layer (0-6km) shear ramps up to nearly 45KT and CAPE could touch 2000J/kg in the S and more than 100 in the N. Hodographs get slightly curved before the front, and the NAM generates helicity over 300 in the late aftn and early evening - just ahead of the front - in many places. So, supercells are possible for a brief window. Mostly, the storms will be multi- cell clusters. Wind damage will be the most probably threat. Hail less so, and tornadoes even lower. However, the LCLs will be low which could make it easier for tornado formation should discrete cells develop. The front picks up speed in the evening, and should push all the storms past BFD close to 8 PM, and through LNS around 11 PM. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential across much of PA on Thu 6/18 The nose of a very strong, 40+ KT swrly 850 mb jet 50+ KT at 700 mb (both being 3+ sigma on the standardized anomaly scale), the the right entrance region of a 100 KT 250 mb jet and PWATS around 1.5 inches (with the potential of a EML surging in from the west ahead of a strong sfc cold front) will bring the ideal synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak here in the CWA. As always, even with the moisture, instability and shear present, such strong forcing could produces plenty of clouds and early day convection to stabilize the atmos and decrease the potential for significant afternoon severe weather. We`ll be monitoring this potential closely as we head into the new week. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very high (> 80%) confidence in VFR conditions continuing through 18Z Sunday with current observations outlining clear skies across the entire Commonwealth as of 06Z Sunday. increasingmid-to-high level deck is current being observed on recent ECONUS Nighttime Microphysics satellite, with observations across central Ohio outlining ceilings over 10,000ft AGL. This will likely continue to move eastward and impact many, if not all, of central Pennsylvania`s terminals prior to 18Z. Recent HREF does outline an initial shot of moisture potentially bringing some shower/storm activity between 15Z-21Z across SE PA (MDT/LNS); however, lower confidence on this occurring with more recent hi-res model guidance pushing this activity south of the PA-MD border at this time. There will remain a slight (~30-40%) chance of this activity at the airfields that is not accounted for in this TAF package; however, and should continue to be monitored as we get into the late morning hours. Model guidance does agree on more widespread shower/storm coverage along a cold frontal passage, and have went slightly more aggressive for TSRA mentions on this cycle with narrowing of PROB30 windows to two- three hour windows based on more recent HRRR/HREF model guidance and the more recent GLAMP guidance. TSRA will likely bring a drop in visibility, but not expecting widespread lower ceilings that warrant longer-term mentions in the TAF package. Confidence remains high in TSRA; however, timing differences warrant keeping PROB30s this cycle to see a couple more runs to CAMs in order to gain more robust confidence in the timing and to avoid having three hours of TSRA mentions when we`re looking at faster moving TSRA that will likely impact airfields for around one hour, or even less in most cases. PROB30s extended all the way to MDT/LNS this cycle, given concern for TSRA across E PA. After the cold frontal passage, guidance indicated a mixed bag in ceilings; however, have not went as aggressive on lower ceilings given some low-level dry air that looks to work into the area after the frontal passage; however, clearing behind this feature could lead to development of low-level (IFR/LIFR) restrictions. Outlook... Mon...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA possible. Tue...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible. Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely. Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Beaty