Whitetail Ridge snow report

339 FXUS61 KCTP 190602 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 202 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Day 2 SPC Outlook upgraded to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for damaging winds in northwest PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More heat & humidity will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, especially across northern PA. 2) A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: More heat & humidity will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, especially across northern PA. By Tuesday, we`ll still be under the influence of the anomalously strong ridge of high pressure, with broad southwesterly flow continuing to pump warmer temperatures and humid conditions into Pennsylvania. Highs on Tuesday should be fairly comparable to today, though afternoon showers/storms in the west could limit how warm it gets there. At the surface, a deepening surface low will lift across the Great Lakes with gradually sinking heights aloft impinging northwest PA. Underneath this sprawling ridge, Pennsylvania will be in a moist and unstable airmass with MUCAPE values expected to reach 1000-1500J/kg. With marginal but sufficient shear, this amount of instability could support a few stronger storms will strong to damaging wind gusts. The SPC upgraded NW PA to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) of severe weather Tuesday afternoon. The Marginal Risk extends down to about halfway between I-80 and I-76. Low level hodographs do exhibit some spin and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in northwest PA closer to the parent surface low pressure system. CAMs disagree on the extent to which convection initiation will occur Tuesday afternoon, but the heat and humidity will provide as much fuel for storm development as we`ve seen yet this year. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be all that impressive with this system, largely owing to unimpressive/relatively dry moisture profiles with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The good news is that these lower dewpoints will keep our heat index values below 100F and mitigate the need for Heat Advisories across the area. Rainfall amounts will be highest west of I-99 and locations farther east may not see much rain at all before Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. A cold front (accompanied by more widespread and frequent showers/t-storms) brings relief to the relatively short bout of heat and moderate humidity Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday in northwest PA (behind the front) will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than Monday/Tuesday. The Lower Susquehanna Valley will squeak out another warm day with highs in the upper to 80s to near 90F. Ahead of and along the front, there will be a risk for severe weather again on Wednesday. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on cold front passage timing and amount of cloud cover in advance of the frontal boundary. A Marginal Risk area covers locations south and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor and highlights locations along and downstream of the cold front between 12PM and 8PM on Wednesday. A few of the hi-res models depict a slower cold front passage. Such a solution would allow for more destabilization ahead of the front and a higher threat for damaging straight line winds. If the front ends up being faster than progged, clouds/rain in the morning could limit instability and lead to an unimpressive gusty shower event. Regardless, this system will feature beneficial rainfall with rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.25" and locally higher totals possible in thunderstorms. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure will build in for a short time. Temperatures are forecast to cool down back to historical/climo averages for late May for the end of next week. Early indications show the aforementioned cold front stalling out south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the week and lifting back north across PA as a warm front into Memorial Day weekend. The current outlook favors a cooler/wetter stretch through the holiday weekend thanks to that warm front, but there is still a lot of time for the forecast to trend in a more favorable and optimistic direction for the holiday weekend that marks the unofficial start of summer. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prevailing VFR is favored through the 06Z TAF period, with the main exception being visibility restrictions in any heavier showers/thunderstorms that develop. A decaying shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley may initiate additional spotty showers/thunderstorms over Central PA overnight; nonetheless,a lull in convection is expected as forcing lessens through the morning. Otherwise, marginal LLWS is expected to continue through sunrise as surface winds have diminished in the evening while winds approach 40 kts within the lowest 2000 ft. Chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms will pick up again Tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily between 16Z-00Z, as weak shortwaves move around the periphery of a Western Atlantic ridge. Like yesterday, gusty winds may accompany these spotty showers/storms given the moderately unstable airmass (HREF mean SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) in place. Most convection will diminish after 00Z Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating, though some models are hinting at an MCS from the Ohio Valley holding together until reaching KBFD around 03Z-06Z Wednesday, potentially bringing gusty winds and visibility restrictions. MCS timing/impacts will be sensitive to how it evolves across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon & evening, with TAF mentions not included at this time given high model variability. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today`s (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow`s (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Beaty