Ski Sawmill Snow Report

174 FXUS61 KCTP 190527 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 127 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend Crumbling cu into tonight setting up some valley fog formation into early Wednesday morning. Cold front crossing Lake Erie should be accompanied by rain showers into the northwest Alleghenies early Wednesday. The front may touch off some additional showers/isolated t-storm across the northwest 1/2 of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of rain should be focused across the southern portion of the CWA on Thursday with some locally heavy downpours possible (new D3 WPC ERO MRGL risk). The end of the week looks nice as high pressure migrates over the Keystone state. An upper trough carving out over the Great Lakes will result in increasingly unsettled to potentially stormy wx conditions over the weekend. This system will also deliver some relatively cooler air both at the surface and aloft. This setup could prove favorable for clusters of gusty t-storms with small hail. The troughing pattern holds on into next week which favors temps near to slightly below the historical average for late August. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites through the rest of the night, though recent satellite imagery does show some patchy valley fog beginning to form across northern PA. Mainly clear skies and light winds should allow for the fog to continue to expand, potentially getting close to BFD and IPT over the next few hours. A weak shortwave moving overhead during the day will bring the chance for a few showers to the region. The wave will have relatively little moisture to work with for this time of year, so showers are expected to remain isolated to scattered at best. BFD has the best chance for seeing rain, so the PROB30 has been maintained there. Some guidance suggests that some rain could make it to JST and UNV as well, but confidence in coverage is too low to mention the potential in the TAFs for now. Winds during the day tomorrow will be out of the west at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 15 knots possible, especially at BFD and JST. Chances for fog are slightly higher Wednesday night into Thursday morning as surface dew points begin to climb ahead of a more energetic shortwave trough that will move through for Thursday. Increasing mid and high clouds ahead of this feature may mitigate the fog threat somewhat, so we will hold off on introducing any visibility restrictions for now. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two associated with this disturbance will begin moving in from the west after 06Z. Outlook... Thu...Periods of showers and perhaps some t-storms focused across the southern half of central PA. Fri...AM fog, otherwise trending VFR. Sat-Sun...Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms likely especially on Sunday. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Bauco