Ski Sawmill Snow Report

559 FXUS61 KCTP 020806 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 406 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of showers in most places, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week 2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of showers in most places, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week Our recent warm spell (with daytime high temps some 8 to 12 deg F above normal and nighttime low temperature departures even greater) will exit to the east as clouds and the chance for showers increase today with the arrival of a cold front. Prior to the cold frontal passage (across the NW Mtns late this morning, and elsewhere across the Central Mtns and Lower Susq Valley this afternoon and evening respectively) max temps will once again come in well above normal (+10-15 deg F) over the SE half of the state and still near normal across the Northwest. Temperatures will become seasonably cooler this weekend into next week, when another stronger cold front will push through Sunday night and early Monday. The second surge of the cooldown will be highlighted by frost potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the northern tier. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days of October We`ll have a few, generally limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days in CPA. The first will come this morning over the Northwest Mtns as cold front over the Lower Great Lakes drifts gradually southeast. 02/00Z High Res model members and the HREF are a little more robust with rainfall amounts across the CWA today (compared to the 12Z Thu run) and even ramp up the intensity of the showers across the SE third of the state with a potential for TSRA in the 20+ percent range given some small areas of MU CAPE values of up to 750 J/KG during the mid to late afternoon with temps in the L80s and sfc Tds in the mid 60s. The second opportunity for rain is on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cloud cover continues to increase tonight into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Any rain associated with this front likely holds off until right around 12Z Friday before reaching BFD. LLWS will be a concern into Friday morning as a 40 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the west ahead of the front. LLWS is most likely at BFD and JST overnight, though AOO, UNV, and IPT could may see LLWS develop after 06Z. Fog formation isn`t expected to be robust enough at any eastern terminals due to lack of radiational cooling the rest of tonight ahead of the frontal passage, however some passing mist before dawn cannot be fully ruled out. Regardless of fog formation, IFR or LIFR ceilings appear likely to develop at BFD in the 10-12Z timeframe as rain begins to move in. Showers with lowering ceilings will begin elsewhere throughout the afternoon reaching UNV and IPT around 18Z, and finally reaching the southeastern terminals afterwards. Localized heavier rain may be on tap with PWATs approaching 1.5 to 2 inches for LNS, JST, AOO, and MDT. Visibilities will primarily remain in MVFR during the showers, but periods of IFR are possible. No thunder mentions added because of weak CAPE primarily below freezing level. Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the front. Drier air will filter in behind the front with improvements to flight restrictions from west to east primarily after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday. JST and AOO look the most likely candidates to hang onto MVFR conditions later into tomorrow night. Outlook... Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible. Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA. Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible. Tue...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible, especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels. && .CLIMATE... September 2026 precipitation rankings IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90") && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare/Lambrech/Krantz CLIMATE...Steinbugl