Val Chatel snow report

333 FXUS63 KFGF 170808 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and again on Friday. Severe weather is not expected, and the main threat will be lightning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Update to Key Message for the day. As the main upper level forcing with the strong mid-upper level jet is tracing to the west and south of our region more widespread/organized areas of showers and thunderstorms are more likely to remain outside of our local region. The main frontal zone where better BL moisture and instability in place is also to the west and south, keeping very weak instability in place locally. As the mid level waves continue to move through the region though we do have enough forcing, moisture, and insatiability to continue to support pockets of showers and occasional lighting activity. HREF and latest CAMs do indicate redevelopment during peak heating during the daytime period before quickly moving out and dissipating through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Overall, confidence in coverage in location of shower activity in our CWA is lower than 24hr ago, but we still expected some areas of showers and non severe storms to continue periodically today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper pattern remains generally zonal to northwesterly, with a seasonably strong upper jet traversing the Dakotas into Minnesota tonight. This along with available moisture will produce widespread rain with isolated to scattered storms, mainly tonight into Wednesday morning. Most locations will see a wetting rain of 0.2 inches to 0.5 inches, highest favored to occur in southeast ND into west-central MN. The pattern remains generally in place through the work week promoting continued cooler than average conditions. Ensemble guidance attempting to build upper ridging into the north- central CONUS this weekend into next week. This would promote a trend toward average to perhaps above average temperatures, along with general trend for increasing instability into the Northern Plains. ...Showers and storms this afternoon into Wednesday... Strong upper jet traversing the Dakotas into Minnesota is helping supply strong dynamical lift for ascent. This forcing will utilize available, although meager, moisture to produce widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the rest of today, tonight, and into Wednesday. Instability is greatly lacking in our region, particularly as strongest forcing traverses our area tonight. This is nullifying potential for severe weather despite the strong wind energy that could have been harnessed for storm organization and/or wind gusts. Thus, main hazard with today/tonight/Wednesday`s storms will be lightning. There is, however, a small chance in funnels or even perhaps a brief, weak tornado given consolidated spin in the atmosphere as the strong mid level wave moves through - this potential is dependent upon the surface wave lingering longer than currently advertised, near the tri-state area, into this afternoon allowing enough surface heating to get storms to form favorably on lingering boundaries. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 On and off rain will continue tonight with the main thunder threat coming between 18z and 00z Wednesday afternoon. The bigger impact to aviation will be developing MVFR (KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF) to IFR conditions (KBJI, KDVL) overnight beginning as early as 09z-10z for all sites and lasting into the afternoon. Worst (lowest cigs) will be from 12/13z to around 18z (+/- 2 hours) for all sites. Winds increasing after 18z for all but BJI with northerly gusts to 25kts through the probability for gusts over 30 seems negligible at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...TT