Val Chatel snow report

233 FXUS63 KFGF 100419 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1119 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk late afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Synopsis... Strong H5 ridging is developing over the Southwestern CONUS, which will drift into the Central Rockies, then into the Midwest by late this weekend. Ahead of this, a weak boundary is slowly moving eastward into eastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the boundary, with a few severe storms possible through late this evening. Additional showers and isolated storms linger overnight as the boundary moves very slowly to the east through midday Friday. Warmer temperatures begin to build into the area heading into Saturday, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s Friday afternoon and the mid-90s Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid conditions prevail Sunday and Monday, with air temps in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, and heat index values upwards of 100-110 degrees. Heading into Tuesday, the H5 ridge should start to flatten and drift westward, allowing northwest flow to return to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are still expected to be above average, but with slightly lower humidity. ...Severe Thunderstorm Chances This Afternoon and Evening... A slow moving boundary will provide an axis of development for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this boundary, instability and shear are supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms as early as mid afternoon. The main uncertainty will be the timing of initiation, mainly due to ongoing thunderstorm activity in central North Dakota and the western portions of the Devils Lake Basin. This activity is providing just enough surface inhibition in it`s wake to potentially delay future convection until later this afternoon. The overall environment remains supportive of supercells, capable of all hazards once initiation occurs. Chances are highest in the Devils Lake Basin, with slightly lower chances across the Red River Valley. ...Dangerous Heat This Weekend into Monday... Strong ridging is in the process of strengthening over the Central Rockies, and is expected to build to the north and east through this weekend. Anomalous heights upwards of 600dM are being highlighted by the majority of ensemble members, allowing temps to climb well into the 90s on Saturday, then approach the 100 degree mark on Sunday and Monday. With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees or higher, especially Sunday and Monday as the ridge axis aligns atop the Northern Plains. Wet bulb globe temps will climb into the upper 80s Sunday and Monday, signifying high to extreme categorical heat risk both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Skies clearing out with light winds may produce some fog especially after the rain earlier tonight at KDVL. Winds will be southerly overnight before the cold front passes and turn more northerly Friday after the cold front passes. Some chance for more shower activity late in the TAF period, but the chances are much lower with the best chances closer to the front at KBJI. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-030-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Wolfe (DLH)