Val Chatel snow report

499 FXUS63 KFGF 280410 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1110 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly across northwest Minnesota through this evening. Near critical fire weather conditions may occur Friday into this weekend. - Well above normal temperatures are expected through early next week, with near record highs into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale omega block remains in place into the weekend, with the amplified ridge axis centered across our region. This continues to amplifying through Saturday and ensemble mean heights impressively show 582DM heights extending to the arctic circle in Canada. This pattern keeps well above average temperatures and near record highs daily through Saturday. By Sunday the ridge axis begins to weaken and there is a transition to more of a progressive zonal flow by early next week. Due to high variation in the evolution of that pattern actual precipitation chances are generally low, however this time of year that pattern shift would support progressive waves and rain/thunderstorm chances. Machine learning systems do not highlight any one period for severe potential, however just with the patter shift and ensembles showing the potential for modest instability pooling into our region there is at least a low risk for severe weather somewhere in the region during that pattern. There is a surface feature/frontal zone that could provide just enough weak forcing from low level convergence and instability before sunset to support a few thunderstorms in far southeast ND and west central MN. Significant amounts of dry air aloft and weak shear (under 20kt) would likely lead to a lot of skinny/pulse type updrafts due to dry air entrainment if storms were to develop. I won`t rule out a strong storm or two, but the threat is minimal and the vast majority of CAMs keeps conditions dry through this evening and with high based and DCAPE over 1000 J/KG gusty winds would be a threat. ...Fire weather concerns into the weekend... RH is highly variable across the region due to low level moist flow from the southeast along the frontal zone in our south and to the west and drier air aloft in the north and east. Winds are periodically gusting around 20 mph along/north of Highway 2, otherwise they are generally around or less than 10 mph. Near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing at locations that have had more widespread 25% or lower RH values this afternoon (mainly in the northern Red River Valley). The orientation of the surface gradient aligns that low level southeast flow across the entire region Thursday, so while winds would be a bit higher mixed layer Tds would also be higher limiting the coverage of potential 25% or lower RH values. Friday and Saturday there is a much drier air mass expected to be in place off the surface with a strong signal for sub 25% RH region- wide. The question will come down to winds and increasing surface gradient over the central and western Dakotas does supporting at least breezy conditions (strongest west lightest east), and there is a chance (30%) for RFW conditions to develop over parts of our CWA during those periods. At very least we are looking at near critical fire weather conditions where fuels are supportive of rapid spread. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 Steady state conditions are expected for the TAF period with very high ceilings exceeding 5000 feet should any cloud cover arise. Other than that, expect winds to become more southerly through the day, with the greatest winds expected along the North Dakota/Minnesota State line and points west. No other aviation impacts are expected to develop. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Perroux