Val Chatel Snow Report

458 FXUS63 KFGF 080227 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 927 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions develop Tuesday with wind gusts to 50 mph across parts of northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley in Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...Synopsis... SW Flow is in place across the Northern Plains head of a stronger mid/upper trough/upper level low located over the Northern Rockies. This upper low tracks east and deepens over the Canadian Prairies and passes north of our region through Tuesday. There is more variation in details beyond Tuesday regarding any shortwave trough passages and rain coverage/chances, though we still remain on the warmer side of temperatures despite a shift towards west-northwest flow on the back side of this trough. The general trend is for a much more substantial shift in flow aloft favoring decreasing heights and temperatures by the end of next week and next weekend (highs in the 60s). The most likely periods of impactful weather will be associated with the trough passage tonight and Tuesday (thunderstorms then wind). ...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Risk... Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms have remain weaker in a much more elevated airmass featuring skinny CAPE profiles but strong effective shear. Current activity developed with the nose of a LLJ and elevated WAA in the 850-700 MB layer and besides heavy rain/lighting it may only feature a marginal hail threat. Expansive cloud cover is also lingering, which may lower our window for surface based thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Surface pattern indicates surface troughing over western ND, with several fronts intersecting near Dickinson. The deepening of this surface low and position/timing of these fronts before sunset will be critical for any potential supercell development to our west that may track into the Devils Lake Basin/eastern ND during the evening hours. Forcing is much more diffuse before the main trough starts shifting east later this evening/overnight, so coverage/initiation carries more uncertain. Still, within the warm sector where clearing develops decent instability profiles may coincide with strongly veered hodographs/strong shear favorable of supercells and a conditional risk for hail around the size of golf balls and a conditions risk for tornado development. Some CAMs (mainly runs of the HRRR) have supported supercell developing to our west and potentially tracking east into our west. The farther east and the later activity lingers/tracks activity will tend to become weaker with more of a marginal hail risk. Higher PWATs in place raises potential for heavy rain rates with thunderstorm activity once again as with previous days, and any slower moving/training clusters could lead to localized flooding. && .AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Variable flight conditions are forecasted throughout the TAF period. Overnight, a period of MVFR stratus looks to develop at KBJI and KTVF, creeping into KFAR and KGFK as well. Ceilings may flirt with IFR at times, especially around sunrise. Confidence in how long MVFR lasts at KGFK and KFAR is lower, as these terminals will be on the western edge of the cloud deck. A front passing through overnight into Tuesday morning will bring a shift in wind direction, along with a rapid increase in wind gusts. Gusts in excess of 30 knots are forecasted at KDVL, KGFK and KFAR for at least several hours on Tuesday. The strongest winds will occur during afternoon hours, especially at KGFK and KDVL. Winds will die down after sunset, with gusts subsiding at all terminals by the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-004- 007. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Rafferty