Winterplace Ski Resort Snow Report

023 FXUS61 KRNK 230709 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in dry and milder weather Friday through early next week. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly over western portions of the forecast area today and tonight. Elsewhere, expect drizzle and rain showers at times through midday Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly over western portions of the forecast area today and tonight. Elsewhere, expect drizzle and rain showers at times through midday Thursday. We remain in a chaotic mid and upper level pattern through the day 7 forecast, with the brunt of it being we will be under cyclonic flow with periods of short wave energy crossing the area through Thursday. Surface analysis shows a strengthening wedging pattern over the southern and central Appalachians, and this wedge will hold, allowing moist air to overtop it, producing plenty of stratus, fog, drizzle, and the occasional rain shower through Thursday midday. The most persistent area of rain early this morning was over NW NC, where storm totals last night ranged from 1 to 3 inches. Recent rainfall amounts were much lighter, with Boone, North Wilkesboro, and Jefferson all seeing less than a tenth of an inch over the last 3 hours. Today, expect scattered showers and humid but cool conditions. Later this afternoon and evening, a significant short wave arrives from the Midwest, and will trigger a few thunderstorms over the western mountains as well as some moderate to heavier rainfall after about 2 pm. Considered a Flood Watch for parts of the NW NC mountains as PWATs are in the 90th percentile for this time of year. However, with a strong wedge in place and not being sure of the southwestern extent of it, did not have enough confidence to issue it. The rainfall will continue to push east through the overnight tonight into Thursday morning, with widespread wetting rainfall. PWATs plummet by Friday morning to a third to a half an inch from over an inch Thursday afternoon as flow becomes more NNW. Low pressure off the Carolina coasts will deepen and begin to move north Thursday, which will help the CAD regime erode. Expect light rain and drizzle until about midday Thursday, with sky cover gradually diminishing by Friday morning. Cooler weather today and tomorrow will give way to dry and mild conditions Friday through early next week. Fall-like, close to normal temperatures are expected Friday into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Conditions vary considerably across the area this morning, despite a wedge in place, with MVFR in ROA, LWB, and (somehow) LYH. Other terminals have lowered to IFR. Expecting ceilings to drop to LIFR/IFR in the next couple of hours. These low ceilings persist for much of the TAF period, along with rain, drizzle, and fog, bringing down vsbys periodically as well. Isolated thunderstorms and heavier rain will form later this afternoon and into the overnight hours, initially impacting areas west of BCB, then shifting east. Winds will be out of the northeast, between 5 to 12 knots or so, with gusts between 20 and 23 knots, particularly over the Piedmont, with gusts fading more after 12Z Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Thursday expect more LIFR/IFR stratus and fog in a wedging pattern with periods of rain and drizzle. Conditions improve to VFR late Thursday through Sunday, as dry weather returns for the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH