Winterplace Ski Resort Snow Report

336 FXUS61 KRNK 250757 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation forecast has been updated. No major changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend. 2) Thunderstorm activity will increase during the early half of the workweek another cold front approaches. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure remains situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic this morning, with northeasterly winds drawing cool maritime air from the New England area. Radar imagery indicates pockets of light rain drifting east across the region as a weak disturbance exits toward the Atlantic coast. Further to the west, a large dome of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. For today, showers will decrease through the morning, with breaks of sunshine developing during the afternoon as the flow of cool maritime air begins to weaken. Regardless, the cool air will still hold for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s. This will help to strictly limit the development of any showers or storms for today, and no hazardous weather is forecasted. The dome of high pressure across the Four Corners region will continue to build Sunday, causing windflow aloft to switch from the northwest. Will be watching for upper level disturbances riding around the dome to pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic, potentially triggering rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest weather forecast data hints at one such disturbance as early as Sunday evening across the mountains, though confidence is currently low as to when or where any associated thunderstorm activity will develop, if at all. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm potential will increase during the early half of the workweek another cold front approaches. Confidence is increasing that a disturbance caught within the northwest wind flow aloft will bring another round of energy during late Monday into Tuesday, with a strong cold front moving through sometime late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This is forecasted to trigger a round of organized strong to severe thunderstorms capable of both damaging winds and heavy rain that may result in localized flash flooding. The lower Mid-Atlantic is outlooked for both a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday, as well as a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall. There appears to be timing differences within the latest data, with some data suggesting that strong thunderstorms could arrive from the north late Monday into early Tuesday morning before fading. Thunderstorms may then redevelop during Tuesday afternoon and evening somewhere across our area, introducing another severe threat. We will continue to monitor this threat as it evolves. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Northeasterly windflow will continue to carry maritime air from the New England area through late morning, maintaining low MVFR to IFR stratus ceilings. In addition, pockets of light rain will continue to shift across the region through the morning, and will exit the area by around 16Z. Through the afternoon and evening, latest weather data suggests that clouds will gradually decrease, making for patches of low ceilings intermixed with areas where ceilings have scattered to VFR conditions. Low confidence exists as to where these transitions will occur, but many location are forecasted to have scattered to VFR during the 20Z to 23Z timeframe. Areas of fog and few pockets of drizzle are forecasted areawide for late tonight and early Sunday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sunday and Monday look mostly dry, with light WNW winds with the occasional gusts to 15 kts. Monday night into Tuesday, thunderstorm activity has the potential to produce widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, locally damaging winds, and sub-VFR conditions. Tuesday has the highest potential for strong thunderstorms. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each night and early morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NF AVIATION...NF