Winterplace Ski Resort snow report

536 FXUS61 KRNK 130620 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday. 2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend. 3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday. Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight. Key Message 2: Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend. A surface high pressure system follows today`s storms to bring another quiet period of weather. The center of this system will progress eastward and head into the Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance shows a shortwave zonally moving through the Mid-Alantic sometime this weekend. This shortwave could provide another round of precipitation for the area, but confidence with this event is low. Timing will be everything as the influence of the surface high may prevent widespread convection. Air temperatures and dew points will be recovering by this weekend, but if the shortwave arrives too soon, it may not coincide with the ideal setup for storm development. In addition, there is a serious lack of wind shear that would promote storm organization. At this point in the forecast, only a modest chance of rain can be offered for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. Key Message 3: Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week. The weather will feel more like summer by next week as mid-level ridging builds, heights rise, and temperatures jump. High temperatures for early next week may get into the 80s for most of the region and even the lower 90s for the Piedmont. Dew points will likely get into the 60s as lower level and surface southwesterly winds direct warmer and moist air from the south to the rest of the east coast. The duration of this warm trend is threatened by a surface low dragging a cold front through by the middle of next week. This far off, it is difficult to ascertain whether this front will pass through the area or move around us to our north. Given deteriorating drought conditions, the front could be the catalyst to providing the best amount of rainfall this season. The warm and moist conditions will set the stage for an unstable environment and with PWATs possibly approaching up to 1.5", a good dose of rain could be in the making. Granted, we are still about a week away so confidence in this coming into fruition remains very low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the forecast period; however, with the passage of a cold front throughout the afternoon and evening on Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at all terminals. These showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they move within the vicinity of any terminal. Outside of these showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to remain for much of the TAF period. Winds will predominantly be out of the southwest at around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times throughout the afternoon. Once the front passes the area around the 00-03 UTC timeframe, winds look to transition to out of the northwest, and look to maintain winds in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts remaining up to 20 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Northwest flow behind the cold front leading into Thursday morning looks to lead to some upslope cloud development at BLF and LWB starting early Thursday morning in the 09-12 UTC timeframe. These restrictions at these two terminals look to remain through the late morning hours on Thursday before lifting throughout the afternoon hours. All other terminals look to remain VFR during this time period. High pressure looks to settle over the region by Friday returning VFR conditions to BLF and LWB. Isolated afternoon mountain showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend as flow becomes more southerly/southwesterly once again. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...EB