The Homestead Ski Area snow report

197 FXUS61 KPBZ 160556 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 156 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lower probability for severe weather today, otherwise overall messaging remains unchanged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperature early next week could impact heat-sensitive populations, favoring those living in urban areas. 2) Lowering severe risk today with a round of showers/thunderstorms, but mid-week activity remains a period to monitor. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of height rises and warm advection as zonal flow aloft today transitions to ridging/southwest flow Monday/Tuesday fosters a gradual rise in area temperature toward well above normal readings. Monday is likely to be the "warmest" day due to the combination of heights aloft peaking and abundant sunshine throughout the day. Though NBM bias-corrected temperatures remain several degrees too high (prompting an adjustment to the official forecast), maximum temperature that day is likely to be in the mid to upper 80s (normal high in Pittsburgh: 72) with long range ensemble data suggesting at 20% probability of reaching/exceeding 90 degrees in the Pittsburgh metro area (and far southwestern locations of CWA seeing those probabilities approaching 50%). Heat Advisory criteria, which is 100 degree heat indices or greater, is very unlikely to be met but this early season heat anomaly could still prove to be impactful to heat-sensitive populations. Individuals in this sector, especially those living within urban settings, should take necessary precautions to reduce their heat risks. KEY MESSAGE 2... Previous messaging noted that severe weather potential today was dependent on upstream evolution of a thunderstorm complex. That complex is now active and driving along the WI/IL border as of 0530z. Greater convection-allowing model consensus shows that the complex and associated mid-level wave are unlikely to reach the forecast region into the latter morning hours today while also encountering a fairly unfavorable storm environment devoid of much SBCAPE (mean values less than 100 J/kg). Though elevated CAPE may allow for some perseverance of the complex, it`s increasingly likely that its decay will only continue as it moves east. Additional showers and thunderstorms still develop through the afternoon/early evening thanks to enough shortwave lift and some destabilization with heating, but severe parameters remain marginal at best and favors southeast OH during the evening hours. Beyond today`s round of rain and some lower probability chances Sunday with a lifting warm front, the focus is on the Tuesday/Wednesday period for the next potential hazardous weather threat. A slow, eastward progression of height falls plus weak low movement does strongly favor precipitation areawide by Wednesday afternoon, but details in timing of any pre-frontal troughs or impacts from increased cloud cover make it difficult to assign proper severe context. That said, analysis of AI/ML outlook models are becoming more pessimistic in hazardous weather occurring; this forecaster`s best guess is potential issues of timing of lift plus mid-level warm air caps (which generally occur in SW flow patterns like the one expected) limiting strong destabilization for either day. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High-confidence VFR continues for all terminals through at least 15Z. That said, southwest wind of 30 to 35 knots just above a surface-based inversion will continue to create low-level wind shear concerns through the night. Clouds begin to thicken and lower during the early morning hours Saturday ahead of the next shot at rain coming in the form of dissipating thunderstorms near midday on Saturday. ZZV has the best potential of hearing thunder from this initial batch and a TEMPO group was used. Otherwise, PROB30 groups were used at other terminals, with lessening confidence in impact with eastward extent. The wind aloft will begin to mix to the surface by late morning, creating 20 to 25 knots southwesterly gusts through the afternoon. A brief dry window will likely be followed by another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. PROB30s were used at most terminals as there is slightly better probability of occurrence during the late afternoon/early evening. Ceilings should drop as well, reaching MVFR areawide by evening, with IFR potentially north of PIT prior to 06Z. Outlook... VFR returns Sunday and persists into early next week. The next potential for widespread precipitation and restrictions may arrive by Tuesday night or Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...CL