Snowshoe Mountain Snow Report

549 FXUS61 KRLX 180614 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast package at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and storm chances linger across the region today with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the area. 2) A lull in rain for Saturday before more chances arrive Sunday and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure causes a frontal boundary to become semi- stationary across the area today. This feature will raise chances for shower and/or storm activity through this afternoon and possibly the evening. It will also manage to steer a complex into the area this morning providing rain and possible storm activity. This complex is weak in nature and should not impose any significant threats other than lightning and gusty winds under a downpour. If its track slows down this way we could possibly see some instances of flooding in low lying or flood prone areas if training occurs. Cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures will keep thunderstorms to the general threat and sub-severe with the lack of shear and upper level support. Surface high pressure in place will keep the feature from traversing southward at a fast pace. It will take until Saturday morning to exit the area to the south. KEY MESSAGE 2... Starting Saturday, high pressure and subsidence aloft should cap us to where a lull from shower or storm activity should exist for the day. As the surface high pressure system pulls back toward the south and weakens this will allow for diurnal activity to take place Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary is then forecast to impact the area Sunday through Monday with increasing chances for shower and storm activity. The threat is still sub-severe at this point, but excessive rainfall may be an aspect, especially if the front becomes semi-stationary which could promote some flooding instances through its passage. WPC will have us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. This cold promote instances of isolated flash flooding if areas are hit repeatedly with heavy downpours. This active pattern will possibly continue through midweek. More chances for activity open up due to a forecast low pressure system developing over the Great Lakes which will drive down southward toward our area and impact us with more unsettled weather. A little too far out to gauge severe potential but it will be worth keeping on eye out as this system is forecast to impact us through the work week according to medium range models. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some cloud coverage is moving into the area which will deter some fog formation. However, fog can become an issue at CRW/EKN and PKB even with the cloud coverage. A complex is riding into the area which will promotes some chances for shower and/or storm activity for the morning hours. This activity could take down flight categories under VIS/CIG restrictions. MVFR or worse clouds will hover into the afternoon where more chances of shower or storm activity is possible. More valley fog is anticipated for tomorrow morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent and density of fog this morning may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/18/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M H L H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M L H L H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M M H M H M H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Valley fog or low stratus expected each morning through the weekend at most sites. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ