Snowshoe Mountain Snow Report

730 FXUS61 KRLX 180613 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 213 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The main forecast is on track and no significant changes were made at this time. Did however lower dewpoints as central guidance was coming in a bit higher than most other guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorm potential today with a slight risk across much of the area. The main threat will be damaging wind although we cannot rule out all hazards. 2) Improvement in smoke and air quality is anticipated by late afternoon. Parts of West Virginia will be under the threat until tonight at midnight. 3) Improvements to weather by late Sunday then another potential threat of severe weather by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today much of the area will under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with the rest of the area toward the south under a marginal threat. Also a marginal threat for excessive rainfall is across the entire area. The main hazards are damaging wind and possible flash flooding, however we cannot rule out the rest of the hazards as a slight possibility as well. This threat is due to an upper level trough with multiple shortwaves forecast to move through the base of the trough today and Sunday. A surface front will traverse north through the area and keep us in a destabilized warm sector for which severe weather will be possible this afternoon and evening. Strong low level flow will promote organized cells or clusters capable of damaging wind and with enough MUCAPE and EBWD along with a large hail parameter of 4.0 or greater will also promote isolated small to possibly large hail under a supercell, however with freezing levels above 15k feet it will be hard for any other storms to produce hail before it melts toward the surface. A tornado threat will also exist with enough EBWD, helicity, low 100mb mean parcel LCLs and enough CAPE with the lack of CIN depending on storm-mode evolution. The EBWD is slightly lower than criteria, however this will mean that the threat is very low at this time. There is a threat across the northern panhandle of West Virginia and slightly touches our Perry County in Ohio. The threat could be nudged further south and into our area later in the day. Another threat will be possible flash flooding with PWATs anomalously high getting into the maximum for climatology or 3 standard deviations above normal for the region and efficient DCAPE values along with the potential for downbursts. Heavy downpours will be likely be in stronger thunderstorm activity which will likely create some instances of flash flooding, especially in low lying or flood prone areas or if training or backbuilding occurs although steering flow should be modest enough to keep the threat isolated in nature. A wave of convection is forcast by Hi-res models early afternoon and then again by the evening as a cold front shifts southward into the area and continues to move south throughout the day and exits by slightly after midnight tonight. Embedded storms along a broken line of convection is forecast by Hi-res models by this late evening, however due to earlier convection and cloud coverage a lot of fuel will be lost, especially due to the timing after sunset. However, with modest shear and upper level dynamics will support clusters of strong to severe storms possible along this line with the possibility of an isolated supercell. Steering flow will be slightly weaker by this evening, therefore flash flooding will still be a possibility. KEY MESSAGE 2... Improvement from the smoke and haze will likely come to fruition by the late afternoon as the wildfire smoke from Canada will shift northward according to the HRRR smoke model. Parts of north central West Virginia are still in an Air Quality alert until tonight at midnight. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection - Air Quality Division has issued a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for Fine Particulates for West Virgina. A code Orange air quality alert means members of sensitive groups may experience health effects. The general public is less likely to be affected, but sensitive groups should take additional precautions. These groups include children, the elderly, and people suffering from asthma, heart disease, or other lung diseases. The effects of air pollution can be minimized by avoiding outdoor exercise or strenuous activity. For more information check the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s www.AirNow.gov website for current air monitor readings. KEY MESSAGE 3... More potential for thunderstorms will reside on Sunday, however coverage will be a lot less for the area as unsettled weather exits for the rest of Sunday and settled weather will continue into the new work week. Temperatures will moderate down to about seasonable or below for today and Sunday and even continue through the new work week. Another broad upper level trough is expected to affect the area by Tuesday with numerous short waves passing through. A stronger cold front will likely create the possibility of severe weather and SPC does have us in a slight risk of 15% probability across much of the area for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A little bit of valley fog will get into the terminals this morning, however smoke will bring CKB/PKB down to IFR at times and will predominately be MVFR throughout the period. Any fog dissipates by 13Z, however the smoke and haze will affect the aforementioned sites throughout the afternoon then slowly improving as the smoke drifts northward. Several rounds of thunderstorm activity can be expected today starting early this afternoon and then again later in the evening as a cold front moves through the area and exits after midnight to the south. Periods of MVFR or worse restrictions to VIS are possibly under heavy showers, but the main threat today will be damaging wind which is possible at virtually every site as severe weather is possible today. Winds will remain southwesterly and elevated today with gusty wind expected this afternoon. A wind shift out of the northwest will likely take place late this evening as the cold front shifts southward through the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage this morning may vary. Storm coverage today may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/18/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H L M H M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR valley fog possible Sunday/Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ007>011- 016>020-029>032-039-040. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ