Woodbury Ski Area snow report

574 FXUS61 KALY 210658 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 258 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some patchy fog was added to the northern areas this morning, such at the Lake George Glens Falls area, southern Dacks and valleys near southern VT. Lowered max temps a few degrees from the NBM and placed a slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm over most of eastern NY and western New England, as a weak sfc trough and an upper level disturbance moves through. A widespread rainfall is on track for Mon-Mon night, but a slight delay for the onset until the late morning. A 0.75"-2.00" rainfall is possible, and a Marginal Risk will be in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from southern VT, the Capital Region, and the northern Catskills southward with the removal of the "Slight Risk" due to the dry antecedent conditions and collaboration with WPC and WFO`s OKX and BOX. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across most of eastern NY and western New England. 2) High confidence for a widespread soaking rainfall across eastern NY/western New England Mon into Tue morning, but the exact location of where the heaviest rainfall occurs is still uncertain. This will be a largely beneficial rainfall for most areas, although isolated minor flooding in urban/poor drainage areas is possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...After some patchy morning fog burns off north of the Capital Region, cyclonic flow will persist aloft one more day, as a mid and upper level disturbance and a sfc trough will focus some isolated-scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The coverage may be slightly more than yesterday with some showery activity/isolated thunderstorms also south and west of the Capital Region. Sfc dewpoints will be mainly in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. The latest HREFs indicate mean SBCAPEs 250-750 J/kg with a bit more deep layer shear than yesterday with 15-30 KT. With the residual cold pool and isolated taller updrafts, a few storms could have small hail under half inch with gust winds 35-45 mph, but we are not expecting any severe thunderstorms at this point. Most of the CAMS have the better coverage north and east of Albany and development near or along the higher terrain. All said, the activity should be timed to the diurnal heating and quickly diminish in the late pm/early pm with the loss of it. Max temps will be near or slightly below normal for the opening day of astronomical summer (begins at 424 am EDT) with mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower/mid 70s over the hill and mtns. Humidity levels will be very comfortable for Fathers Day. Lows Sunday night will be mid 40s to mid 50s with mid and high clouds increasing with the approaching wave for Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure will be approaching from the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday morning. The low and and mid-level flow become zonal and then southwesterly ahead of the wave. The low level jet increases tapping some Gulf and Atlantic moisture, as the isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm front to the wave. The timing based on the short-range guidance, ensembles and NBM is for the rain/showers to begin in the late morning into the early pm across the region with clouds thickening and lowering quickly. The latest NAEFS indicate good moisture advection with PWATS increasing to 1.25-1.75" across the region Mon-Mon night and these values are about 1-2 STDEVs above normal. The low and mid level FGEN increases across the region Mon pm-Mon night with favorable mid and upper level dynamics for periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Some weak elevated instability is present Mon pm into the night period, so we continued a slight to low chance of thunderstorms from the Capital District, northern Catskills and southern VT southward, though the greatest threat may be closer to I-84. The guidance continue to be slightly further north than early yesterday morning, but it seems the axis for the highest amounts will still be from southern VT, the Greater Capital Region, and the northern Catskills south and east with a sharper drop off north and west towards the southern Dacks and Glens Falls/Lake George Region. We have 1-1.75" of rainfall in these areas, while further to the north 0.50" to an 1.0". Localized amounts around 2.0" or so may occur closer to I-84. The 01Z/21 NBM continues to show 24-hr probabilities >1" of rain by 12Z/8am Tue in the 60-85% range from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, southern VT southward. Probabilities for >2" are 20-50% from I-90 southward with highest probs closer to I-84 and Litchfield County. The rain ends from northwest to southeast Mon night thru Tue morning, as the system pulls east of southeast New England and Maine. This cyclone and its warm front will bring primarily beneficial rainfall, and many locations from the immediate Capital District, Schoharie Valley, Berkshires and some portions of southern VT are in D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought. based on the latest Drought Monitor. The D1 is across the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Litchfield Co. CT and most of the Berkshires. We collaborated with WPC and WFO`s OKX and BOX about the removal of the mid-Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, NW CT and southern Berkshires from the ERO Day 3 (which will be Day 2) "Slight Risk" or Level 2 of 4 for flash flood potential. Gridded FFG values are very high, antecedent conditions are very dry, and not sure rainfall rates will approach 1-2"/hr. The I-90 corridor and southern VT south and east will be in a Marginal Risk Mon-Mon night. The rainfall will be very helpful for the prolonged dry conditions in these areas. Some ponding of water on roadways or poor drainage flooding of urban areas may occur closer to I-84, but we are not anticipating widespread flooding. An isolated flash flood can not be ruled out. Temps were lowered 3-4 degrees from the NBM with the clouds and rain-cooled air Monday with 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s over the high peaks. These temps will be about 10-15 degrees below normal. Lows in the rain Mon night will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Drier weather returns late Tue into the Wed with high pressure building in with seasonal temps. The weather pattern becomes more unsettled late in the week (Thu-Fri) with near to slightly above normal temps, as chances of showers and some thunderstorms increase with the next wave and cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Mostly clear/clear skies early this morning will likely allow some shallow radiational fog and low stratus to form at KGFL leading to IFR vis/cigs with low stratus and MVFR cigs at PSF between 07Z-12Z/Sun. We continued to message these in a TEMPO group within that time frame. Otherwise, fog/stratus burns off quickly by 12Z/Sun with mostly clear skies for a short period before diurnally driven cumulus and mid- level clouds develop by 15-17Z/Sun with cigs around 5 kft AGL. High resolution guidance continues to show isolated to widely scattered showers once again developing between 17-22Z/Sun reaching mainly KPOU, KPSF and KGFL. KALB looks to miss out on these showers and we just used a VCSH. During any shower, MVFR vsbys are possible from brief heavy downpours, which we continue to message in PROB30 groups. Did not include thunder at this time with low confidence and isolated nature of convection, but will continue to monitor trends. Winds will be calm to variable in direction at 4 KT or less prior to 12Z/Sun. Southwest to west winds increase to 5-10 KT prior to noon, and become west/northwest at 8-12 KT in the afternoon with some gusts 15-20 KT. The winds become light to calm by 00Z/Mon. Outlook... Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...31/15