Thunder Ridge Snow Report

861 FXUS61 KALY 170629 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 229 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures through the rest of the night across the ADKs where there has been more clearing relative to the rest of the region. Otherwise, only minor changes from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A weak surface low will bring showers to the region today, but no significant impacts are expected. 2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, with another low pressure system expected to bring widespread rainfall on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1028 mb area of high pressure sitting over southeastern Canada, with a frontal boundary draped to the W/SW of our region. With dew points in the 50s to 60s and fairly widespread cloud cover across the region, temperatures are running several degrees warmer than the previous few nights. Most areas are in the 60s, except for the ADKs which have had more clearing that allowed temps to fall into the mid 50s. Temperatures only drop a couple more degrees from current levels between now and sunrise. Patchy fog will also be possible anywhere breaks in the clouds develop due to abundant low-level moisture. Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the night. Today, a weak area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley into our region along the frontal boundary in response to a weak upper impulse. This will actually help lift the boundary back north as a warm front, although the sfc front will only get to around the I-90 corridor. With ample moisture, there will be enough forcing (convergence along the boundary, mid-level warm advection/isentropic lift) for scattered to numerous showers to develop from mid-morning through this evening. Areas closer to I-84 may stay dry through early to mid afternoon. PWATs surge to 1.8-2.0" with warm cloud depths of around 12 kft, which could allow for some very heavy downpours. Some training of showers can`t be ruled out with flow aloft relatively parallel to the frontal boundary. However, fast flow aloft and an overall lack of instability (MUCAPE <500 J/kg) should prevent any significant hydro issues, although some ponding of water in the typical urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas will be possible. WPC has kept their marginal risk ERO just west of our region for today. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out south of I-90, but lack of instability should also prevent any severe weather today. High temperatures were lowered a few degrees from the NBM for areas north of I-90 on the cool side of the boundary, but stayed near NBM highs (mid and uper 70s) for southern areas where it will take longer for showers to arrive. Showers come to and end from northwest to southeast this evening into early tonight, with total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.1 to 0.5". KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will track through the region tonight, pushing the showers off to our south and east. Ahead of the front, some patchy fog will be possible tonight due to lingering low- level moisture. Tomorrow, much cooler and less humid weather is expected with breezy NW winds. We continued to bump up winds/gusts and lower dew points from the NBM Friday in the post-frontal airmass. Highs will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys). Friday night, a strong (1028+ mb) sfc high builds over southern Canada. While it won`t be perfectly centered overhead, its proximity should allow for diminishing winds and favorable radiational cooling conditions Friday night. Lows will be in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Some patchy frost can`t be ruled out in the sheltered areas of the ADKs Friday night. The sfc high slides overhead Saturday, resulting in a gorgeous early fall day. Morning sun will give way to increasing PM clouds with highs mainly in the 60s with low humidity. Saturday night into Sunday, our next sfc low tracks over the region, bringing widespread rain/showers. Strengthening LLJ with a Gulf moisture connection will lead to PWATs surging to around 2 std dev above normal. Mid-level warm advection and the right entrance of the upper jet to our north will provide plenty of forcing for ascent. At this time, Sunday looks like a washout for most of the region. NBM seems to have caught on to the fact that temps will likely remain well below normal Sunday, but still doesn`t look quite cool enough. We therefore opted to lower temps a couple degrees from the NBM, with 50s in the high terrain and low 60s for most valley areas. The forecast continues to trend drier for early next week, as guidance is coming into better agreement that another strong sfc high building into southern Canada will help push a frontal boundary back south of our region, keeping us dry and seasonably cool. However, some uncertainly remains in exactly how close this boundary will stall to the region and whether or not it may be able to lift back north towards the middle of next week, bringing with it additional rain chances. Will continue to monitor and refine this part of the forecast over the next several days. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...Flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals as of 1:40 AM EDT, although some patchy fog/mist and IFR vsbys was observed earlier in the night at GFL. Given mid- level clouds still at 4000-6000 ft, have cut back on/slowed down onset of MVFR cigs at ALB/PSF/POU, but MVFR stratus will be possible at these terminals for a few hours around daybreak. Some IFR cigs can`t be ruled out at PSF. For GFL, more breaks in the clouds will likely allow for patchy fog/mist to redevelop at times with IFR or lower vsbys through shortly after sunrise. All terminals see some marginal improvement to MVFR/VFR cigs this morning, but cigs will lower with increasing chances for showers by late morning, especially at ALB/GFL. Showers spread south and east through the afternoon and early evening, with widespread MVFR vsbys and MVFR to IFR cigs. Rain ends 23-02z this evening. Some patchy fog/mist will be possible after rain ends, especially at GFL/PSF, although a cold front bringing drier air into the region towards the end of the TAF period may help to limit the amount of fog/mist tonight. Winds will be light and variable through most of today at ALB/GFL, but increase to 4-8 kt from the S/SE at POU/PSF this afternoon. Winds then switch to the W/NW after rain ends tonight at ALB/POU/PSF, but remain light and variable through at least 06z at GFL. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35