Appalachian Ski Mtn. Snow Report

299 FXUS61 KRNK 100542 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 142 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The entire forecast has been updated. Severe and flooding risks were increased for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather will persist throughout this week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will persist throughout this week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. A broad upper level ridge across the Southeast with surface high pressure offshore should keep advecting warm and humid air throughout this week. Precipitable water values will continue to remain elevated with amounts over 1.5 inches. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough should cross the Great Lakes and reach the Northeast by the middle of this week. This overall pattern will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Appalachian Mountains each afternoon. While forcing appears weak today, a passing cold front to the north will provide more lift during Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, both days feature an increased risk of severe thunderstorms due to damaging winds and localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Confidence in these risks is highest along and west of the Blue Ridge. Although convective activity diminishes a little in intensity and coverage towards the end of this week, sufficient instability and orographical lift will ensure that storm chances linger throughout the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broken cirrus will persist across most of the region for the rest of the night, but some areas could clear a little towards daybreak. Patchy fog appears possible at BCB and LWB, but confidence elsewhere is too low to mention. Overall, conditions should generally remain VFR throughout today. Winds will increase from the west to northwest during the morning and may gust up to 20 knots at BLF and LWB in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm coverage appears too limited to include anywhere, but the highest chance exists in southeast West Virginia this afternoon and evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase during Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front passes to the north. Sub-VFR ceilings are possible along with gusty winds and heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms. Overnight and early morning fog may occur in the mountains, especially where any rainfall occurs from the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms. Although convection may become less intense and more scattered by Thursday and Friday, little change in the overall weather pattern is expected with daily chances of storms each afternoon. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...PW