Batawa Snow Report

889 FXUS61 KBUF 100814 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 414 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) has been expanded northward and now includes all areas south of Lake Ontario. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Active weather today through tonight, followed by periodic chances for showers and storms through midweek, although plenty of dry time can be expected. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Active weather today through tonight, followed by periodic chances for showers and storms through midweek, although plenty of dry time can be expected. Active weather will return for today and tonight as high pressure exits to our east. This will initially allow a warm frontal segment to drift northeast across the region this morning in response to a mid/upper shortwave dropping into the western Great Lakes. This will bring the next chance for showers and isolated storms into western New York early this morning, possibly impacting the morning commute. This initial batch of showers and isolated storms will then shift east across the remainder of the area through midday/early afternoon. Overall environment does a look a bit more favorable for a few stronger storms across areas south of Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening. Moderate shear and deep moisture (PWAT values in the 1.5"-1.75" range) will already be in place, so as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon, this will bring the better chance for some more robust scattered convection. The main focus for storms from mid afternoon into this evening will be along lake breeze convergence boundaries south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie. A cold front will then push south across western and north-central New York late this evening through the early overnight. Moderate shear and a moist airmass will remain in place within the warm sector ahead of the boundary, however loss of daytime heating will result in less instability. That said, as lake breezes flip to land breezes and move back out over the warm lake waters, can`t rule out a couple stronger storms possibly forming along and just ahead of the surface cold front as it interacts with any lingering boundaries, especially over the lakes. As mentioned above, the threat for a few severe storms has been expanded northward with the latest update from SPC, with the main threat continuing to be strong winds. Thus, a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather (level 1 of 5) now includes all areas south of Lake Ontario for mid afternoon through the early overnight. Potential for localized heavy rainfall remains in place within the moist airmass, for which WPC continues with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the entire area. The cold front will stall just to our south tonight, then remain nearly stationary through midweek. Drier air will reside to the north of the boundary, with the main threat of showers and a few storms toward the western Southern Tier Tuesday through Wednesday closer to the frontal boundary, and mainly dry weather elsewhere. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the 06Z TAFs, a stalled frontal boundary to the south with ongoing convection will lift northward today as a warm front with several waves of showers and thunderstorms upon it. Tough to time each element along the warm front, thus will have a prolonged period with PROB30s. Any thunderstorm will bring brief periods of IFR flight conditions in heavier downpours, while MVFR ceiling heights in lingering cloud debris may remain for a few hours. While convection will likely remain garden variety, a few strong storms are possible as wind fields increase late this afternoon into this evening. Cold front will drop across the region between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday, ending the threat for storms. Areas of IFR ceilings are likely across the Southern Tier (KJHW), as well as east of Lake Ontario, possibly impacting the KART airfield. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of periodic showers and thunderstorms with localized MVFR or worse conditions possible. Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... West to southwest flow will increase today as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds of around 15 knots are expected on Lake Ontario, bringing choppy conditions today, but expected to remain below SCA criteria. 15 to 18 knot winds and 2 to 4 foot waves are expected on Lake Erie, which is right in the marginal SCA criteria window. With it being August, will err on the side of caution and issue a SCA from late this morning through late this evening from Ripley to Buffalo on Lake Erie. The cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes region tonight with winds veering more west to northwest and diminishing to 10 knots or less, although 12-15 knot northwesterlies will continue across eastern Lake Ontario through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible on both Lakes today into tonight, with a few stronger storms possible this afternoon and evening that will be capable of producing strong winds and locally higher waves. Winds of 10 knots or less are then expected for Tuesday through Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...JM