Batawa Snow Report

498 FXUS61 KBUF 120647 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 147 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain will continue today, then colder air will produce scattered wet snow and rain showers tonight through the weekend with very minor accumulations possible across higher terrain. 2) Dry weather will return by early next week, with temperatures trending warmer by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain will continue today, then colder air will produce scattered wet snow and rain showers tonight through the weekend with very minor accumulations possible across higher terrain. Model guidance has trended a little southeast over the past 24 hours with the track of the coastal low, resulting in lower QPF and lower snow potential. Any slushy snow accumulations will be meager and limited to higher terrain through the weekend with minimal impact. A highly amplified pattern will develop across CONUS through the end of the week, with a sharp ridge over the High Plains and a deep downstream trough over the eastern half of the nation. An initial surface low over the Ohio Valley this morning will give way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis this afternoon just offshore of the Delmarva. An elongated coastal low will then move northeast offshore of the New England coast tonight through Friday night before reaching the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A broad area of frontogenesis and deformation north of the low track will cross the eastern Great Lakes today. Light rain will increase in coverage early this morning, peaking later this morning before starting to taper off from northwest to southeast this afternoon. The light rain will mostly end across the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley by later this afternoon, while persisting across the Southern Tier and Central NY closer to the low track. Rainfall amounts have trended down in model guidance, with less than 0.20" in most areas. Somewhat higher amounts will fall across the Finger Lakes and Central NY, but even here rainfall will likely remain below 0.50" today through this evening. Tonight, the deeper synoptic scale moisture and forcing will continue to move east. The broad area of synoptic scale precipitation will continue over the far eastern portion of our forecast area from the Finger Lakes to southern Tug Hill overnight. Some limited lake effect may also develop in Chautauqua County in the NNE flow. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be mainly dry for much of the night including the Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown areas. Cold advection will continue to cool the column and allow for a mix with wet snow tonight in areas where precipitation is still falling. Some wet snow may begin to mix in as early as late afternoon across the Tug Hill Plateau, with the change to wet snow then gradually progressing to lower elevations overnight. The Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks may see a slushy inch or so of accumulation tonight. A light, slushy coating is also possible across the Bristol Hills and Chautauqua Ridge. Friday through Saturday, cold/moist cyclonic flow will continue over the eastern Great Lakes. NNE boundary layer flow Friday morning will gradually back to the northwest by Saturday. Synoptic scale moisture appears to be lacking on Friday to support any organized lake response, with just a few scattered light rain/snow showers expected. Latest model guidance suggests and uptick in deep moisture Friday night through Saturday night as the main mid level trough axis crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This should allow for an increase in coverage of lake effect and upslope rain and wet snow showers, although the short northerly fetch will still greatly limit intensity. Wet snow will be favored for higher terrain, with a rain/snow mix for lower elevations closer to the lakeshores. Spotty light, slushy accumulations are possible across higher terrain at times Friday through Saturday night. Total snowfall through the period will be meager, with spotty amounts of a coating to 2" across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau, Bristol Hills, and Chautauqua Ridge. Little or no accumulation is expected for lower elevations. A few spotty light wet snow and rain showers may continue through the first half of Sunday before drier air and subsidence build into the eastern Great Lakes, with dry weather returning by evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather will return by early next week, with temperatures trending warmer by midweek. An expansive surface high will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. This high will drift very slowly to the east towards the east coast and continue to support dry weather for the rest of next week. Temperatures will remain cool early in the week, but a strong warming trend will develop mid to late week with temperatures rising to well above average by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will pass to the south of the region today while a deepening mid level trough approaches from the west. Light rain will increase in coverage this morning across most of the area, then continue through early afternoon before gradually tapering off from west to east later this afternoon and evening. VSBY will stay VFR in most areas today, except for the Finger Lakes and Central NY where the rain will be steadier. Low levels will saturate in this area and bring MVFR/IFR VSBY in areas of BR and light fog. CIGS will deteriorate to IFR this morning in moist low level northeast flow, then gradually improve back to MVFR in most areas later this afternoon and evening as the light rain exits. Tonight, light rain will persist across Central NY and the Tug Hill region, mixing with wet snow as colder air filters into the area. Higher terrain will change to all wet snow overnight. Some lake effect rain and wet snow showers will also develop across far southwest NY. Areas of MVFR/IFR will continue in these areas. Elsewhere, it will be mainly dry overnight with MVFR VSBY, including most of the TAF sites. Outlook... Friday through Saturday night...Areas of MVFR with scattered rain and wet snow showers across lower elevations, and occasional wet snow showers across higher terrain. Local/brief IFR possible in snow showers. Sunday...Improving back to MVFR/VFR with a few spotty rain or wet snow showers southeast of the lakes. Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley this morning to off the Mid Atlantic coast by late this afternoon, with the coastal low then moving northeast and offshore of the New England coast tonight through Friday night. Northeast winds will continue to increase today and bring higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to both lakes. Winds will gradually become northerly tonight through Friday and slowly diminish, although Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue. Northerly flow will gradually back to the northwest over the weekend and remain elevated with very choppy conditions persisting on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ041. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock