Brimacombe (Oshawa Ski Club) snow report

509 FXUS61 KBUF 060607 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms for most of the area today with the exception of the North Country. Some storms may contain locally heavy rainfall. 2) Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms for most of the area today with the exception of the North Country. Some storms may contain locally heavy rainfall. A weak mid level trough will continue to drift slowly southeast across the eastern Great Lakes today through tonight. At the surface, a weak/diffuse low will move from the Ohio Valley today towards the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday, with an inverted trough extending northward across western PA and southwest NY. Weak large scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will combine with moisture transport and frontogenesis north of the surface low to support another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms today. Scattered showers early this morning across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will gradually expand in coverage from late morning through the afternoon, and also expand northward towards the south shore of Lake Ontario as deep moisture gradually drifts north ahead of the approaching trough. Extensive cloud cover will limit instability, but just enough may develop to support widely scattered thunderstorms or heavy convective showers without thunder this afternoon. The rain will reach peak coverage this afternoon, then gradually diminish to scattered showers this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. A few scattered showers may persist overnight especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as the mid level trough continues to drift slowly east. Meanwhile, the North Country will stay dry today through tonight farther removed from deeper moisture and forcing. There is a risk of locally heavy rainfall today through this evening with PWAT values around 1.75", tall/skinny CAPE profiles, and weak low/mid level flow resulting in slow storm motion. Similar to yesterday, small heavy convective showers may develop across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes and become anchored on terrain features in low level northeast upslope flow. The main risk of localized heavy rainfall will be across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. No widespread flooding is expected, but there is a low end risk of isolated flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend. Tuesday, the mid level trough will continue to drift slowly east across NY/PA and into New England by evening. Deeper moisture will drift towards the east coast and away from our region. A few scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm may linger across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, but otherwise the rest of the area will be dry with increasing amounts of sunshine. High pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday with dry weather returning areawide. Mainly dry weather will likely continue through most of Thursday, although an approaching cold front may bring an increasing chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day, mainly inland away from stable lake shadows. Temperatures will trend above average through the middle of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s for lower elevations away from lake influences by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers this morning across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will expand in coverage late this morning through the afternoon, and also expand northward towards the south shore of Lake Ontario. The rain will reach peak coverage this afternoon with numerous showers and a few scattered thunderstorms for most of the area with the exception of the North Country. Any heavier showers and storms will bring temporary VSBY restrictions. MVFR CIGS will continue today across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and may expand northward to the lake plains this afternoon as the low levels saturate. Spotty IFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Tonight, the widespread showers will gradually diminish in coverage this evening, although scattered showers will continue overnight especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. CIGS/VSBY will be mainly VFR for the lower elevation lake plains, but areas of MVFR/IFR will continue across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Outlook... Tuesday...MVFR/IFR CIGS across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the Finger Lakes, otherwise mainly dry and VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes in the afternoon. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build southeast across Quebec today, tightening the pressure gradient. Northeast winds will increase to near 15 knots at times on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, producing a moderate chop on the lakes today through Tuesday. Winds and waves are expected to remain a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Light winds will return Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure settles over the eastern Great Lakes. Southwest winds will increase Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, with choppy conditions developing on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock