Ski Dagmar Snow Report

872 FXUS61 KBUF 140640 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool and mostly dry weather through early Tuesday morning. 2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible along a stationary front Tuesday night through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and mostly dry weather through early Tuesday morning. A strong northern stream trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region today, bringing northwest flow and cold air advection that will result in a cooler day. 850mb temperatures will drop to around +4 deg C by this afternoon. Due to a dry airmass, minimal lake effect response is expected, though lake effect clouds and widely scattered showers are possible along the I-90 corridor this morning. Surface high pressure will build from the west, bringing widespread dry weather this afternoon through tonight. Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, low 60s across the higher terrain. Efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s, with upper 30s in the interior valleys of the Southern Tier and Black River Valley of Lewis county. Patchy frost is possible in far southern Lewis county late tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible along a stationary front Tuesday night through Thursday night. Surface high pressure will move off the New England coast Tuesday. A northern stream trough will move across central Canada/Hudson Bay through mid-week. A cold front associated with low pressure near Hudson Bay will approach the region Tuesday. Warm air advection and a surface warm front will result in high temperatures moving back into the 70s. A few showers can`t be ruled out across the Niagara Frontier Tuesday afternoon, with dry weather expected elsewhere. The trough will move by to the north through Thursday and zonal flow is expected across the region. The cold front is expected to sag southward across the forecast area late Tuesday night through Wednesday, becoming stationary through Thursday. A corridor of deep moisture along the front is expected to settle across the region with the potential for PWATS over 1.6". Chances for showers will increase beginning Tuesday night. The stationary front will become the focus of precipitation Wednesday through Thursday, however there is some uncertainity in the forecast due to the potential for the front to oscillate. Guidance suggests a wave of low pressure may move along the front and bring the potential for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the forecast area late Wednesday night through Thursday. The front is expected to move south of the region Thursday night into Friday. Surface high pressure will support drier weather Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. Scattered showers will exit to the east by daybreak with VFR conditions expected region-wide. Cool, northwest flow across the warm Lakes will generate lake clouds and the potential for widely scattered lake effect rain showers from KBUF/IAG to KROC through noon. Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible from KIAG to KROC during this time, with VFR conditions elsewhere. Surface high pressure will move across the region this evening through early Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will continue most of the night, with patchy fog developing across valley locations of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Black River Valley. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR are possible, however due to a strengthening low level jet, confidence is low that these criteria will be met at KJHW. Outlook... Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night through Friday...Periods of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected. && .MARINE... Post-frontal northwest winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on portions of the Lower Great Lakes this morning. The strongest winds and highest wave action will be found along the nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Mexico bay in the northwest flow regime. Choppy conditions will continue on Lake Erie early this morning, with winds and waves remaining below criteria. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through tonight, with winds and waves subsiding. A southerly wind will increase on the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday. Winds will slowly veer southwest, and winds and waves may reach Small Craft Criteria from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River by Tuesday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ001-002. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ003>006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043-044. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK