Ski Dagmar snow report

891 FXUS61 KBUF 040609 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 209 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers likely at times today, along with scattered thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. 2) Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across southern portions of the area. 3) Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend downward this weekend following the heat wave. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers likely at times today, along with scattered thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue to cross the area from west to east through mid to late morning as a series of weak, convectively modulated shortwaves cross the eastern Great Lakes atop a weak east-west oriented frontal zone. The coverage of showers should remain widely scattered through mid to late morning with weak forcing and limited instability. The coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase during the midday hours with diurnal destabilization and the approach of additional mid level height falls and small scale shortwaves. The increase in background synoptic scale forcing will also interact with lake breeze convergence zones as background flow gradually veers today as the frontal zone drifts southward, but lake forced southwest flow continues over and northeast of Lake Erie. Peak coverage of showers and thunder will be this afternoon, then showers will quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as the frontal zone continues to sink southward towards northern PA. Most of the thunder should end by sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes. There will be more cloud cover today than recent days, which will limit destabilization in some areas. Nonetheless, breaks in the clouds will allow the very warm and humid airmass to destabilize sufficiently to support at least a low end risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Effective shear will be quite weak, but a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon with peak heating. The main risk will be localized strong wind gusts from precipitation loading and collapsing cores, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The limited severe risk will quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across southern portions of the area. A weak mid level trough will gradually sharpen across the Great Lakes Sunday through early Monday, then cross the eastern Great Lakes late Monday through Monday night. At the surface, a weak low will develop over Ohio Sunday, then drift east towards the Mid Atlantic Monday. A plume of deep moisture will remain in place across Ohio and Pennsylvania and likely the Southern Tier of NY as well. Much drier air will be poised just north of the region across Ontario and Quebec, resulting in a sharp northern edge of clouds and rain chances. Occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday through Monday across the Southern Tier in close proximity to more favorable moisture and forcing. Rain chances will be lower along and north of the NY Thruway, although there is still some uncertainty with respect to the northern edge of the rain with this system. The North Country will be deeper into the dry air associated with high pressure over Quebec, and have the lowest chance of rain through the period. The mid level trough will linger over the Northeast US Tuesday, and may still support a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms mainly inland from the lakes. Mainly dry weather will return by Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend downward this weekend following the heat wave. The heat wave is now behind us as the strong mid/upper level ridge continues to flatten and drift off the southeast US coast this weekend. It will still be quite muggy today with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s, but clouds and showers will help to keep highs in the low to mid 80s in most areas. The heat index will peak in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to typical mid summer values Sunday through early next week, with dewpoints also pulling back into the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An east-west oriented frontal zone will remain draped across the eastern Great Lakes today, bringing another day of showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. The timing and placement of clusters of more organized showers and thunderstorms is highly uncertain. In general, expect scattered showers and isolated thunder through mid morning, with coverage ramping up late morning through the afternoon before diminishing again early this evening. A few storms may contain gusty winds, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. VFR will prevail most of the time, but any of the heavier showers and storms will produce brief/local MVFR to IFR conditions. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, although a few scattered showers may continue overnight especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Late tonight, chances of low stratus and associated MVFR CIGS will increase south of Lake Ontario as northeast flow develops behind the weak cold front sagging south of the area. Patchy IFR may develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of rain over the southern half of the area. Brief/local IFR in thunderstorms. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland from the lakes. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds tonight through Saturday with minimal wave action. Behind a weak frontal boundary winds will become northwesterly on Lake Ontario tomorrow afternoon, and then as surface high pressure builds southward Sunday winds will predominately become northeasterly on both lakes. Winds to close out the holiday weekend and into Monday will remain 15 knots or lower, leaving minimal waves on the Lakes, though waves may reach 2 feet on the western waters of Lake Ontario with a longer fetch to the northeast wind Scattered thunderstorms are expected from midday through early evening today, and again Saturday. Some storms may produce locally stronger winds and higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock