Black Jack snow report

060 FXUS66 KOTX 130804 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 104 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Okanogan valley through at least Tuesday. - Warming trend early this week. - Forecast uncertainty greatly increases into mid to late this week with potential for lightning. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated fire weather conditions expected across portions of central and eastern Washington each day through the first half of the week. Summertime heat will make a return Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence significantly decreases later Wednesday through Thursday, though there is an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms in this timeframe. Dry weather will likely make a return by next weekend with above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Tuesday: An expansive ~600dm monsoonal ridge will remain anchored across the CONUS` midsection through much of this week, with longwave troughing off the northern Pacific coast impinging on portions of the Northwest and western Canada. For Monday and Tuesday, confidence is high in the ridge having greater influence on the sensible weather across the Inland NW with gradual height rises expected over the region. This will translate to summertime heat making a return after the small reprieve seen over the weekend. Expect daytime temps to climb into the low to mid 90s at elevations below 3000ft, with Tuesday likely being the warmer of the two days. This will push the HeatRisk level from Minor to Moderate over a sizable footprint of the forecast area. Otherwise, channeling of breezy southerly winds down the Okanogan Valley will lead to elevated and/or locally critical fire weather conditions as RHs will likely bottom out in the low to mid teens in the region again. Elsewhere, light to modest southwesterly breezes will bring typical elevated fire weather concerns between the western Columbia Basin and the eastern Cascades. While dry weather will still prevail, moisture advection on the backside of the ridge will cause PWAT anomalies to climb to around 150-200% by Tuesday across southeastern WA and the ID Panhandle. This will be an increasingly favorable environment for showers or even a few thunderstorms into Tuesday night. BUFKIT soundings indicate there will still be plenty of low- level dry air in place, though with some level of erosion over time, so may be more sprinkles or dry thunderstorms but cannot discount some minor rainfall reaching the ground. Wednesday through Sunday: Forecast uncertainty continues to be low around the midweek timeframe, particularly Thursday. Global ensembles continue to advertise the monsoonal ridge to the west and a troughing pattern over the eastern Pacific, though the finer details of how this evolves over time remains unclear. The deterministic models seem to be struggling with the phasing between a few distinct embedded shortwaves within this trough. Wednesday should be another hot day with chances for showers and thunderstorms across eastern Washington and the ID Panhandle. By Thursday however, should the trough remain generally offshore or just slide up the western flank of the ridge, we can expect even more heat than earlier in the week and drier overall weather. Should the trough manage to push further inland, temps will be much cooler while shower/storm coverage will likely be higher. NBM 75th percentile max Ts for the day are still pushing 100F for much of the Columbia Basin, while the 25th percentile struggles to crack 90F. Will continue to monitor closely as any thunderstorm activity will pose a fire threat. Beyond Thursday, the long range ensembles actually come into better agreement on the ridge strengthening with height rises returning to the Northwest. This should lead to drier weather making a return with summer heat becoming (re)established. /PMP && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Area-wide VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. Winds will remain light at the TAF sites, with prevailing winds 5kts or less overnight and less than 10kts through Monday. Light to modest northwest winds are possible at KEAT early Monday evening. Otherwise, BKN mid to high cloud cover is expected to continue clipping eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. A swath of middle to upper clouds over the east third of WA and ID are forecast to gradually thin, but occasional middle to high clouds will linger into Monday. Generally winds will be light, but some gusts are forecast for Monday afternoon, particularly near KOMK south toward KMWH, possible as far east at KGEG. Gusts up 15-20kts are possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 93 59 93 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 Coeur d`Alene 91 63 92 65 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 20 20 Pullman 89 56 88 57 89 55 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 96 67 95 66 97 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 10 Colville 91 55 93 59 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Sandpoint 90 59 90 61 91 59 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 Kellogg 90 61 89 61 89 59 / 0 0 20 10 20 20 Moses Lake 93 60 95 63 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Wenatchee 92 65 96 69 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Omak 93 61 98 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$