Boyce Park Snow Report

874 FXUS61 KPBZ 060545 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1245 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the latest forecast message. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Turning much cooler, with scattered showers returning today and Saturday 2) Mainly dry and seasonably cool Sunday through at least mid week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A deepening upper low is progged to track southeastward across Michigan today. A shortwave rotating around the low, and a reinforcing surface cold front, will approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region today, with scattered showers expected. The coverage of the showers should be more numerous north of PIT, where more favorable lift and moisture is expected. A decrease in the showers is expected tonight as the initial shortwave and reinforcing front exit. Expect showers to increase in coverage again on Saturday as the upper low tracks across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region. The boundary layer flow should stay swrly through early Saturday morning, before shifting to the WNW through the day. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to range from -1 to -3 deg C, with a lake temperature around +17 deg C. Some lake enhancement to the showers is expected under the cold WNW flow. There could be a few snowflakes that mix in Saturday morning north of PIT, and at times Saturday in the higher terrain, though critical thicknesses and boundary layer temperatures indicate conditions will be warm enough for rain across the remainder of the area. The upper low is expected to move east of the area by Saturday night, with shortwave ridging building in across the region ending the showers. KEY MESSAGE 2... Model ensembles indicate a broad upper trough will persist across the NE CONUS from Sunday through much of the upcoming week. A shortwave tracking through the trough could bring a few showers north of I-80 Sunday night, though much of the rest of the period should be dry as high pressure builds under the trough. The trough is progged to deepen later in the week, with the pattern becoming more active. Rain, and possibly some snow chances should increase late in the week as the trough deepens, with some lake enhancement also possible. Temperatures should average near seasonable levels for much of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR is expected until a reinforcing cold front approaches and crosses the region later this morning through the afternoon. Expect MVFR cigs and scattered showers to develop as the front approaches, with more numerous showers at FKL and DUJ where slightly more favorable moisture is progged for showers. The showers should taper off late this afternoon and evening as the front exits to the east. Partial clearing should also occur, especially south of FKL and DUJ, as weak low level ridging briefly builds in tonight. Outlook... Scattered showers and MVFR restrictions are expected Saturday as an upper low crosses the region, and some lake enhancement occurs as the flow backs to the WNW. Cig restrictions could continue into early Sunday under cold NW flow, until high pressure returns VFR through at least early next week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM