Mystic Mountain At Nemacolin Woodlands Resort Snow Report

307 FXUS61 KPBZ 140600 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased the chances for thunderstorms slightly for today with a crossing cold front. The timing of passage of a strong cold front has slowed slightly for Friday. Windy conditions still likely Friday and Friday evening, with near or sub freezing temperatures mainly Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front brings showers and a few thunderstorms today. 2) Strong cold front crosses on Friday, with showers and gusty wind. Much colder late Friday through Saturday night 3) Mainly dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave trough and surface cold front will slowly advance across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. The surface front is expected to drift southward through the day, with showers and a few thunderstorms beginning this morning from Pittsburgh and points north. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually shift southward later in the day with the crossing front. Elevated instability was in place ahead of the front, so increased the chances for thunder this morning. Instability is progged to become surface based this afternoon south of the front, especially near and south of the I-70 corridor. ML CAPE is progged to be from 500-750 j/kg this afternoon along this corridor, with 0-6km shear around 35kt. The Storm Prediction Center has continued to highlight the I-70 corridor and points south in a Marginal Risk, or level 1 out of 5, for severe storms with damaging wind gusts. The main limiting factor would likely be any cloud cover that limits surface heating, along with a relatively brief window for this damaging wind gust potential. The front is expected to exit the region to the south tonight, with decreasing shower chances. KEY MESSAGE 2... A digging shortwave trough and deepening surface low are both expected to advance across the Midwest region Thursday. The low is expected to pull the cold front back north as a warm front later in the day, with increasing shower chances late Thursday and Thursday night. There could also be a few thunderstorms with elevated instability in place. Models have trended toward a more amplified trough, resulting in a slower FROPA on Friday. The surface low is progged to track across the Lower Great lakes region Friday, pulling a strong cold front across the region from late morning into the afternoon. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected along and ahead of the front. Strong wind flow aloft, mixing, and a tight pressure gradient should result in strong wind gusts across the region. The latest NBM probabilities for wind advisory criteria gusts (greater than 45 mph) have decreased somewhat across the lower terrain areas, with most areas at 40 percent or less. It still appears the Laurel Highlands and higher terrain areas across WV have the highest potential for Wind Advisory criteria wind, generally at 60-90 percent. Regardless, it will be windy across the entire region with mixing in cold advection after FROPA. Wind should begin to diminish late Friday night into Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes. The crossing upper trough and some lake enhancement should bring rain showers into Friday night, but these should taper off Saturday morning under building high pressure. Current progs of the 850 mb temperature range from -3 to -6 deg C by Saturday morning, when a few snow flakes could mix with any showers in the ridges and areas north of I-80. Much colder temperatures are expected Friday night through Saturday night. Wind will likely preclude frost Friday night, though there could be a few outlying areas that are near freezing. A more favorable night for frost and freeze conditions is expected to be Saturday night, where diminishing wind and clearing skies should result in readings near or below freezing across much of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... The trough is expected to exit eastward by Sunday, with a less amplified flow aloft into next week. Surface high pressure and rising 500 mb heights should result in dry and warmer conditions from Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR is expected through early morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should drift south across the region through the day, with showers and a few thunderstorms. Added prob30 mentions to sites from PIT-LBE and points north this morning, with the latest mesoanalysis showing elevated instability in place. This potential shifts southward to ZZV and MGW this afternoon as the front continues southward, and instability becomes more surface based. There could be some gusty winds with storms in this corridor this afternoon. This activity should quickly diminish this evening as the front exits southward. MVFR cigs are eventually expected to develop fromm N-S after FROPA, and this should continue through tonight with low level moisture in place. Areas south of I-70 could also see IFR fog and stratus with more low level moisture in place and a later FROPA. Outlook... Ceiling restrictions should gradually improve Thursday, though an approaching warm front should return shower and possible thunderstorm chances later in the day through Thursday night. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region from W-E Friday, with showers and W-NW wind gusts from 30-40kt. Gusts from 40-45 kt are possible across the higher terrain. VFR should return Saturday and Sunday as wind diminishes under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM