Mystic Mountain At Nemacolin Woodlands Resort snow report

438 FXUS61 KPBZ 080615 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 215 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low-probability thunderstorms in eastern OH this evening 2) Increasing potential for severe storms and flooding mid-week 3) Hot temperatures with near-record overnight warmth this week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A crossing shortwave trough may trigger isolated thunderstorm development this evening across central into eastern Ohio. While coverage should remain low, a combination of moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg surface-based CAPE), weak shear, and a significant 500hPa dry layer will support downbursts and potential for damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, warm mid-levels will should inhibit updraft development. KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily scattered shower and thunderstorms chances begin on Tuesday with a series of crossing shortwaves. The combination of a moisture-rich airmass, above-average temperatures, and weak ridging is expected to increase the risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall during the middle of the week. Any strong storms could produce a range of hazards, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and localized flooding. Best severe potential appears to be Thursday afternoon, when ML guidance indicates a 30-45% probability for severe weather across most of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence is high in temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees above the climatological average today into this weekend. Daily high temperatures are likely to fall short of the daily record highs in the mid/upper 90s this week, especially with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. However, overnight lows in the lower 70s late week will be near record warm minimums. Warm overnight temperatures are particularly dangerous during prolonged periods of heat. Large portions of the area have a 70%+ chance of Major Heat Risk on Thursday, with high probabilities of Moderate Heat Risk other days this week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence VFR through the TAF period with high pressure. The only exception is low-probability thunderstorm chances this evening across eastern Ohio (ZZV). Wind speeds are expected around 5-10kts during the day with some scattered low to mid- level clouds. Mid-level clouds will increase Monday night with an approaching shortwave trough. Outlook... Daily thunderstorm and restriction chances return Tuesday through Thursday with a series of crossing shortwave troughs. More widespread rain is expected Friday with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan/Rackley AVIATION...Rackley