Mystic Mountain At Nemacolin Woodlands Resort Snow Report

336 FXUS61 KPBZ 220536 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 136 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 06z TAF issuance. Unsettled weather continues through mid-week, but confidence is increasing in a dry upcoming weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain chances continue much of this week. Longer duration rainfall totals could be high and lead to localized flooding and/or river rises into Wednesday morning. 2) Below-normal temperatures linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A wave of low pressure riding along the east-west draped boundary now analyzed off to our south will reinvigorate showers and storms during the early overnight hours Monday night. From roughly I-70 on north, where temperatures will hold in the low 50s, light stratiform rain will be the theme with a persistent easterly wind. South of I- 70, temperatures are a bit warmer and fumes of MUCAPE will support higher coverage and intensity of showers and embedded thunderstorms driven by an inverted surface trough from the aforementioned low. Precipitable water values have dipped a little bit back toward 1.5", and as has been the case for the past couple days, HREF and REFS probability for 1"/hour rainfall rates is low. It`ll be the longer duration 3 hour amounts and associated river rises to monitor. Latest hi res guidance pushes the rain off to our east in the latter half of the overnight hours. That surface trough won`t budge much into Tuesday, and we`ll see coverage of showers increase again through the day. An upper trough will approach from the west and begin to slow down and close off into a low. The broad nature of the forcing with diffluent mid-level flow and the inverted trough is giving Tuesday more of a scattered shower type look rather than a more coherent shield of rain. PWAT values come down a touch more and the column dries a bit in the mid and upper levels, but showers will still be productive with the bulk of the moisture in the warm cloud layer. Still not concerned about hourly rates as the 10 km neighborhood probability for 1"/hour in any given hour is 20% or less. 24 hour mean totals from HREF through 8am Wednesday range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch, and even the 90th percentile peaks around 1.25-1.5 inches south of Pittsburgh. While the flash flooding threat overall may be decreasing especially after tonight, overflow/areal flooding threats remain. Thus, the Flood Watch continues through 12Z Wednesday. Counties west of Pittsburgh were dropped as these areas are expected to avoid the higher totals. Support for rain continues through Wednesday and into Thursday as the upper low develops with highest coverage shifting west into eastern Ohio in tandem with reorientation of the surface trough and PVA around the closing upper low. Guidance actually favors coverage decreasing into the afternoon and evening hours which makes sense as we become more centered beneath the upper low and lose the forcing locally, all while surface high pressure over New England begins its attempt to nudge southwest. We won`t lose the support for continued rain until likely Thursday when the upper low exits and the surface high better establishes and kicks the surface boundary out. Longer range ensembles then point toward a dry weekend locally as a coastal low develops off the Mid-Atlantic and shortwave ridging between that and a trough across the Dakotas becomes our dominant feature. KEY MESSAGE 2... Beneath the cold upper low, with persistent easterly flow, and beneath thick cloud cover and showers, NBM advertises a 60-70% chance that our I-80 areas and down the PA & WV ridges can`t get above 60F for highs on Tuesday, and similar probabilities remain in the ridges on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the goal posts spread from low 60s on the cool end to mid 60s on the warm end, and given the conditions in place, it`s likely a better bet to hedge cooler. Minimum temperatures will remain fairly close to normal given abundant moisture, but daytime highs will run 10 degrees below normal through Thursday. So, even optimistically, mid 60s is likely our ceiling through Thursday before more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A moderate to high confidence IFR and lower forecast is in place through most of the TAF period. Plenty of near-surface moisture as well as deep column saturation will maintain low cigs and periods of mist and rain showers along an inverted surface trough through Tuesday. The one difference on Tuesday compared to the past couple days is that the coverage should take on more of a scattered shower nature as opposed to a broader shield of light to moderate rain. For this reason, have kept the RA mention through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, but then transitioned to SHRA during the daytime. Vis should predominantly hold at 6SM or higher with periodic restrictions lower in periods of more moderate showers. Cigs are favored to hold at IFR through Tuesday, though some meager diurnal mixing could raise them to near MVFR threshold in the afternoon hours. Not all that optimistic in that solution given the thick cloud coverage that would have to mix out, but LBE may actually fare slightly better as stiff easterly wind around 10-15 knots downslopes off of the ridges and locally improves cigs a bit. Improvement to at least MVFR is possible late Tuesday night as the surface trough gradually shifts east. Outlook... Restriction chances linger through at least Wednesday with plenty of moisture and on-and-off rain. Conditions are favored to improve come Thursday as the pattern turns drier into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PAZ021-029-031- 073>076. OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ059-068-069. WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ002>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB AVIATION...MLB