Mystic Mountain At Nemacolin Woodlands Resort snow report

658 FXUS61 KPBZ 290610 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 210 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a potential for fog again tonight through dawn. Confidence is increasing for the heat risk by mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing confidence in dangerous heat mid to late week. 2) Potential for strong thunderstorms next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The story of the upcoming work week is hot weather areawide. A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and brings the hottest temperatures of the year so far, not record breaking with respect to afternoon highs but a high probability of breaking warm overnight lows at several sites Wednesday - Friday. The hottest weather still looks to be Wednesday and Thursday where widespread mid and upper 90s will be common, particularly in urban areas. Heat Advisories are likely to be issued across much of the area during that time as apparent temperatures climb to the 100F to 104F range. Ensembles have been persistent in some warning criteria for Wed and Thu but the days on Tuesday and Friday would be more like advisory values. Guidance continues to be bullish on moisture and maintains upper 60s to mid 70s dewpoints even during afternoon hours, leading to heat indices climbing above 105F in some spots. While that is not out of the realm of possibility (particularly in urban areas located right along major rivers), historically speaking it is difficult for this region to see temperatures climb into the mid 90s with dewpoints that high (e.g., Pittsburgh has seen a temperature of 95F and dewpoint of 75F or greater only 4 times since 1952). Thus, the current line of thinking is that the modeled dewpoints are a tad high and will end up verifying in perhaps the mid 60s during peak heating each afternoon, which would help keep widespread apparent temperatures below 105F and thus preclude the need for Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings. In addition, heat risk will be in the major category (level 3 out of 4) with an extreme heat risk (level 4 out of 4) for the lower elevations Wednesday and Thursday. However, since 2005, Pittsburgh has not verified an extreme heat risk, so we will see if the dewpoint forecast trends a smidge lower, which will have an impact on this index. A quick refresher, NWS heat risk is a color-numeric based index that uses high resolution weather, climate, and CDC heat-health data to identify potentially dangerous heat. It is also good to point out that a big driver of impacts to people in heat waves are the overnight low temperatures. This is because people can`t cool off at night especially those without air conditioners. If you have friends or family that are sensitive to heat, elderly, or without AC, please check on them throughout the week. KEY MESSAGE 2... Machine learning models are all pointing to an uptick in thunderstorm activity and potential severe weather Friday into next weekend across the region. Granted this is far down the road, but when we have a heat wave, typically there is a round of severe weather that ends it with the ridge flattening and the westerlies driving a weather system through. Ensembles have been quite persistent in a stout signal by Friday. As of now, the probabilities are largely in the 15%-30% range. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure has begin to settled over the forecast area. Clear skies and light winds with warm and muggy conditions will make conditions right for fog develop. Will expected below IFR conditions through dawn at just about all the terminals. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 14Z at all the terminals. Winds are expected to be light and variable. Outlook... Mainly VFR is expected through Thursday under high pressure and capping warmth aloft. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday as the high begins to weaken. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 95 Record: 93/1964 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 72 Record: 71/1991 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 71 Record: 74/1933 Zanesville OH Forecast: 72 Record: 74/1934 Record High Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed): New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 96 Record: 96/1991 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed): Wheeling WV Forecast: 75 Record: 75/1901 Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 71/2014 Zanesville OH Forecast: 74 Record: 73/1913 Record High Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu): New Philadelphia Forecast: 96 Record: 95/1966 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 95 Record: 97/1931 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu): Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018 Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1903 Zanesville OH Forecast: 75 Record: 71/1903 Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/03 (Fri): Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 77/1903 Morgantown WV Forecast: 75 Record: 74/1901 New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 77 Record: 71/1991 Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1898 Zanesville OH Forecast: 76 Record: 78/1935 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger